March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Metwatch]

I wonder how close we could get to 7.0°C as the final March CET. Got today and tomorrow to go through, then Sunday to early Tuesday looks on the cool side. However the final 2 days trending perhaps very mild with mild nights. 

I'm gonna punt at the final value to be in the 6.7-6.9°C range. Not that extremely far off my 7.4°C prediction. 

[Don]

10 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

I wonder how close we could get to 7.0°C as the final March CET. Got today and tomorrow to go through, then Sunday to early Tuesday looks on the cool side. However the final 2 days trending perhaps very mild with mild nights. 

I'm gonna punt at the final value to be in the 6.7-6.9°C range. Not that extremely far off my 7.4°C prediction. 

This March has been a bit like 2005 but that month had higher daytime temperatures into the 20's later in the month, whereas this month has had consistent mild days and nights during the second half.  March 2005 had a CET of 7.2C.  I think mid-higher 6's is a good call currently.

Edited March 24, 2023 by Don

[damianslaw]

42 minutes ago, Don said:

This March has been a bit like 2005 but that month had higher daytime temperatures into the 20's later in the month, whereas this month has had consistent mild days and nights during the second half.  March 2005 had a CET of 7.2C.  I think mid-higher 6's is a good call currently.

Looks like a classic switch around month, the cold first half offset by a mild second half, but neither in the exceptionally cold or mild camp. Indeed temps will cool down next 3-4 days, perhaps upper limit of final CET 6.7 degrees, I would punt at a finish about 6.5 degrees, close to the more recent 81-10 average.

The 1 degree difference between the 61-90 and 91-20 average is notable, possibly one of the largest differences in any month, and evidence how much milder March has trended in recent years. 

Edited March 24, 2023 by damianslaw

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Last two weeks has rather been a disaster! Except on the rainfall!

[Earthshine]

Revised my guess down from 7.4°C to 6.4°C in response to the SSW impacts... wondering if that's too low now

[Don]

45 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Revised my guess down from 7.4°C to 6.4°C in response to the SSW impacts... wondering if that's too low now

Could be slightly but I think it's a certainty that my 6.1C guess will be too low now!

[Sunny76]

On 17/03/2023 at 22:02, Nick L said:

An odd and unsubstantiated prediction.

With El Niño, we all know it will be very mild. I’m

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

With El Niño, we all know it will be very mild. I’m

 

[feb1991blizzard]

last post arrow in wrong ocean but you get the picture.

[Summer Sun]

6.4c to the 24th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.2C +0.2C above average. Rainfall up to 105.4mm 170.6% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.4C +0.3C above average, Rainfall 103.5 170.8% of the monthly average.

[Summer8906]

On 24/03/2023 at 07:12, Scorcher said:

Because it's the 2nd half of March perhaps? Also does it really matter about the source of the air if it's being modified a lot with a long sea track?

We don't need a long fetch tropical flow at this time of year to produce these sorts of temps.

I'd have expected the opposite, namely seas are at their lowest temps through the year and therefore any maritime airmass, bar Tm, ought, one might think, to be average to cool.

Certainly, notably warm weather in spring tends to come from dry, clear air with a long land-track from the S or SE.

[Sunny76]

On 17/03/2023 at 21:09, Don said:

As far as El Nino goes and the affects on winter, it depends on what type, for example a moderate or strong basin wide event would suggest a potentially very mild winter a la 97-98.  However, a weak event or moderate Modiki (central based) event would not necessarily be a bad thing if it's cold you're after, think 09/10.  As for there will be no snow in London or the south next winter that's for sure, you really cannot be serious?!

I am serious, which is why I will spend part of next winter in Latvia, because even in a very mild winter like 2015/16, they still had falling and settling snow.

Once summer is over in 2023, I wont be looking forward to winter 23/24 in this country, if your based in London. It definitely will not snow if a El Nino develops.

[Summer Sun]

6.6c to the 25th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I am serious, which is why I will spend part of next winter in Latvia, because even in a very mild winter like 2015/16, they still had falling and settling snow.

Once summer is over in 2023, I wont be looking forward to winter 23/24 in this country, if your based in London. It definitely will not snow if a El Nino develops.

Nino/Nina don't have a clear UK pattern in winter. 

A weak Nina or Moderate Nino are statistically the best outcomes for UK winters. 

Nino does however correlate best with summer at least anecdotally. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

We just have to accept that the chances of low level snowfall in South UK are diminishing every year. Even the Alps at resort levels are seeing less and less snowfall.

Sad times.

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[Don]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

We just have to accept that the chances of low level snowfall in South UK are diminishing every year. Even the Alps at resort levels are seeing less and less snowfall.

Sad times.

 

Yes, it's a doom and gloom world with little sign of things improving! 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Can’t believe how wet it’s been here with the Long Walk flooded in Windsor!

[SummerShower]

4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Nino/Nina don't have a clear UK pattern in winter. 

A weak Nina or Moderate Nino are statistically the best outcomes for UK winters. 

Nino does however correlate best with summer at least anecdotally. 

I did notice, in Gavin Partridges Sunday round up, there is (almost) a tripole signal in the North Atlantic.  This is good for winter prospects but how does this bode for summer?  Or is this like nino/nina in winter with no clear outcome?

[Don]

3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Can’t believe how wet it’s been here with the Long Walk flooded in Windsor!

I remember the Long Walk flooded in February 2014 and have some photos somewhere.

[summer blizzard]

45 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

I did notice, in Gavin Partridges Sunday round up, there is (almost) a tripole signal in the North Atlantic.  This is good for winter prospects but how does this bode for summer?  Or is this like nino/nina in winter with no clear outcome?

NAO has a weaker link to summer. 

A -NAO, +AO can promote the kind of Euro High we want because we see a cut off low stall by the Azores and pump.

 

A -NAO, -AO can of course be horrific come summer. 

Edited March 26, 2023 by summer blizzard

[damianslaw]

5 days to go, today and tomorrow quite cold, expecting the CET to stall or perhaps drop 0.1 degree by Tuesday, then another rise, with mild conditions last three days perhaps notably so, a finish in the high 6s most likely, outside chance of 7 degrees, but don't think it will be midl enough. Will we see our coldest March since 2018? Touch and go, 6.8 degrees the figure to go under - 2020.

It has certainly turned into one of those classic switcharound months with a cold first half cancelled out by a very mild second half, without any notably high or low maxima or minima at all. 

We were not far off seeing the colder conditions endure, had the trough nudged east last week, we would have been locked on the cold side of the jet for quite a few days knocking the CET down, alas it sat to our west and instead we pulled in a polar flow from a long way south - a very mild returning polar maritime flow, never a true tropical maritime airflow. The very end of the month will see similiar conditions with north atlantic air getting into the mix but drawn around low pressure from a long way SW.

Edited March 26, 2023 by damianslaw

[Don]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

5 days to go, today and tomorrow quite cold, expecting the CET to stall or perhaps drop 0.1 degree by Tuesday, then another rise, with mild conditions last three days perhaps notably so, a finish in the high 6s most likely, outside chance of 7 degrees, but don't think it will be midl enough. Will we see our coldest March since 2018? Touch and go, 6.8 degrees the figure to go under - 2020.

It would seem the so called northerly this weekend has been less potent than expected, so I expect the final CET will in the high 6's.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP has reached 105 mm (at least) and looks set to add 20-25 mm more, to finish in the top four possibly. Even third seems possible, on current guidance first and second are out of reach. The current top five are:

 1 __ 1947 _ 177.5 mm

 2 __ 1981 _ 160.4 mm

 3 __ 1818 _ 134.7 mm

 4 __ 1979 _ 127.0 mm

 5 __ 1919 _ 120.0 mm

______________________________

The rest of the top ten which seem very likely to be passed by 2023 are: 

 6 __ 119.7 _ 1914

 7 __ 119.5 _ 1836

 8 __ 118.4 _ 1912

 9 __ 116.2 _ 1951

10__ 115.1 _ 2018

The current value of 105 mm would rank 22nd so we may be passing 22nd to 11th ranked months of March on a regular basis starting Tuesday.