March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Mild against the 61-90 average, but very close to average if going against the more recent 81-10 average.

Close to recent averages yes, but I like to go by older more pre-warming periods i.e. 61-90 to measure monthly temperatures.

[Relativistic]

16 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

You obviously have no recollection of BFTP (Fred)?...he comes out with forecasts largely of the cold to very cold variety on the MOD thread and elsewhere and not just on this thread and has been doing so for years, lets say he is to forecasting cold weather what Berni Inn is to fine dining  

He does seem to not take it to heart so good on him but like a broken watch he'll get a forecast right sooner or later.

Well it's best not to assume.

He's received a lot of ridicule in the past few weeks; seems like some get a kick out of mocking him. He does make himself a target but repeated mocking is in poor taste IMO.

Edit: labouring the point.

Edited April 1, 2023 by Relativistic

[Summer8906]

On 30/03/2023 at 21:07, Roger J Smith said:

After 29 days, 6.7 (195.0/29 = 6.72), taking 13 as likely CET for today (max 17, min 9) and 9 (max 11, min 7) for 31st, overall finish would be exactly 7.0. (217.0/31). Should be 6.9 tomorrow with such a mild reading today, could stay on 6.9 if 31st fails to reach that average of 9.0. 

EWP looks to be past 125 mm already (109.0 to 28th, quite wet yesterday) and will finish 135-140 with tonight's expected downpours across the south. 

If that leaves Mar 2023 in third place, here's a roundup of the wettest ranked months since start of the 2020s: 
 

JAN 2021 ranked 12th wettest

12th wettest, is that right? Surprised to be honest as there have been plenty of examples of stormier, more Atlantic-dominated Januaries even if we restrict ourselves to 1980 onwards.

On 30/03/2023 at 21:07, Roger J Smith said:

FEB 2020 ranked 1st 

The winter month from hell, no surprise there!

On 30/03/2023 at 21:07, Roger J Smith said:

MAR 2023 rank 3rd ?

APR 2020 rank 59th driest (the other two were even drier)

Only 59th driest? Surprised to be honest.

On 30/03/2023 at 21:07, Roger J Smith said:

MAY 2021 ranked 7th wettest

JUN 2020 ranked 39th

JUL 2021 ranked 92nd

Interesting that it's only the 92nd wettest July, but I suppose that's a symptom of the south being much wetter than the north. Down here I wouldn't be surprised if it's easily one of the 10 wettest Julys since 1980.

[Weather-history]

57 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

 

Interesting that it's only the 92nd wettest July, but I suppose that's a symptom of the south being much wetter than the north. Down here I wouldn't be surprised if it's easily one of the 10 wettest Julys since 1980.

Rainfall totals for July 2021 wasn't really that much different up north than down south, the difference is more in the anomaly. 

[Metwatch]

March 2023 CET has came out at 7.0⁰C

[Summer Sun]

March finishes 1.4c above average despite the SSW, with a mild second half of the month offsetting the cold start

[Don]

1 hour ago, Metwatch said:

March 2023 CET has came out at 7.0⁰C

7.0C it was then!  What looked likely to be the first below average month of 2023 fell by the wayside.  Had to wait until December last year for a genuinely below average month in 2022. 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Don

[Weather-history]

How mild was the 2nd half of March 2023? (16th-31st)

Get the feeling it is quite a way up the list for mild 2nd half of Marches. 

[Frigid]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

How mild was the 2nd half of March 2023? (16th-31st)

Get the feeling it is quite a way up the list for mild 2nd half of Marches. 

2nd halves of March CET's

2023 - 10.2C

2022 - 9.2C

2017 (3rd warmest March CET) - 9.9C

1938 (2nd warmest March CET) - 10.7C

1957 (warmest March CET) - 9.8C

March 2023 really did a December 2022, a cold first half, then exceptionally mild second half. 

 

 

[Weather-history]

6 minutes ago, Frigid said:

2nd halves of March CET's

2023 - 10.2C

2022 - 9.2C

2017 (3rd warmest March CET) - 9.9C

1938 (2nd warmest March CET) - 10.7C

1957 (warmest March CET) - 9.8C

March 2023 really did a December 2022, a cold first half, then exceptionally mild second half. 

 

 

Cheers, I recall the 2nd half of March 2005 being exceptionally mild, I think that right up there for a mild 2nd half to March.

Edited April 1, 2023 by Weather-history

[Frigid]

16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Cheers, I recall the 2nd half of March 2005 being exceptionally mild, I think that right up there for a mild 2nd half to March.

Didn't spot that one, March 2005 actually beats 2023 at 10.4C. Looking at the whole month its remarkably similar to 2023. Even the CET's are close (7.0 and 7.1)

[Roger J Smith]

CET and EWP ranks for Mar 2023 (from table of entries) 

 

Rank _ CET_ EWP _ Forecaster (Order of entry) _______ EWP rank ___ Best combined rank

01 __ 7.0 __ 30.0 __ The PIT ( 17 ) __________________________ 52

02 __ 7.1 __ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 06 ) __________________

03 __ 7.1 __ 90.0 __ Leo97t ( 26 ) ___________________________ 3 _____ (6) best combined

04 __ 6.9 __ 59.0 __ davehsug ( 50 ) ________________________37

05 __ 6.9 __ 88.5 __ snowray ( 28 ) _________________________ 5 _____ (10) 2nd best combined

06 __ 6.8 __ 28.0 __ catbrainz ( 04 ) ________________________ 53

07 __ 6.8 __ 23.0 __ Moorlander ( 18 ) _____________________ 54

08 __ 6.8 __ 72.0 __ rwtwm ( 42 ) ___________________________17 _____(25) 4th best combined

09 __ 6.8 __ 68.0 __ J 10 ( 53 ) ______________________________ 24 _____(33) 9th best combined

10 __ 7.2 __ --- ---__ Quicksilver1989 ( 55 ) _____________

11 __ 7.3 __ 85.0 __ syed2878 ( 13 ) ________________________ 6 _____ (17) 3rd best combined

12 __ 6.7 __ 74.0 __ Reef ( 27 ) _____________________________ 14 _____(26) 5th best combined

(11)__6.7 __ 65.4 __1991-2020 average (93-22 63.6 mm) __30.6, 32.7 

13 __ 7.4 __ 37.0 __ Metwatch ( 19 ) ________________________49

14 __ 6.6 __ 68.0 __ Wold Topper ( 41 ) ____________________ 23 _____(37) 12th best combined

(13) _6.6 __ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 average ___________________ 17.2 __ (30.2) _ (7th)

15 __ 6.5 __ 35.0 __ chilly milly ( 03 ) _______________________ 50

16 __ 6.5 __ 65.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 14 ) _________________________ 31 _____(47) 15th best combined

17 __ 6.5 __ 70.0 __ freeze ( 36 ) ____________________________19 _____(36) t10th best combined

18 __ 6.5 __ 40.0 __ Earthshine ( 40 ) _______________________ 48

19 __ 7.6 __ 56.0 __ SLEETY ( 22 ) ___________________________ 41

20 __ 6.4 __ 62.6 __ LetItSnow! ( 25 ) _______________________ 33

21 __ 6.4 __ 77.0 __ February1978 ( 54 ) ____________________11 _____(32) t7th best combined

22 __ 6.3 __ 82.0 __ virtualsphere ( 11 ) _____________________ 8 _____ (30) 6th best combined

23 __ 6.3 __ 75.0 __ I remember Atlantic 252 ( 24 ) _________ 13 _____ (36) t10th best combined

24 __ 6.3 __ 70.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 44 ) _________________ 20 _____ (44) 14th best combined

25 __ 6.2 __ --- ---__ Summer Sun ( 20 ) ___________________

26 __ 7.8 __ 65.0 __ Summer Blizzard ( 30 ) _________________ 32

27 __ 6.1 __ 69.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 21 ) __________________21 

28 __ 6.1 __ 90.0 __ Don ( 58 ) _______________________________ 4 _____ (32) t7 best combined

29 __ 5.9 __ 44.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 09 ) __________________47

30 __ 5.9 __ 67.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 23 ) __________________ 25

31 __ 5.9 __ --- ---__ damianslaw ( 31 ) _____________________

32 __ 5.9 __ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 51 ) _____________________

33 __ 5.9 __ 66.0 __ Mapantz ( 57 ) ___________________________30

(27) _5.9 __ 67.0 __ consensus ______________________________ 25

34 __ 5.8 __ 59.5 __ Bobd29 ( 02 ) ____________________________ 36

35 __ 5.8 __ --- ---__ Man with Beard ( 39 ) _________________

36 __ 5.8 __ 58.0 __ Norrance ( 47 ) __________________________ 39

37 __ 5.8 __ 80.0 __ Frigid ( 59 ) _______________________________10

38 __ 5.7 __110.0__ ProlongedSnowLover ( 46 ) ______________ 1 ____ (39) 13th best combined

39 __ 5.6 __ 45.0 __ seaside60 ( 29 ) ___________________________46

40 __ 5.5 __ 55.0 __ Methuselah ( 08 ) ______ was EdStone_____ 42

41 __ 5.5 __ 60.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 15 ) ____________________35

42 __ 5.5 __ 32.0 __ Pegg24 ( 32 ) ______________________________ 51

43 __ 5.5 __ 76.0 __ Mulzy ( 45 ) ________________________________12

44 __ 5.4 __ 45.8 __ Roger J Smith ( 33 ) ________________________45

45 __ 5.4 __ 48.0 __ Weather Observer ( 43 ) ___________________43

46 __ 5.3 __ 66.0 __ Summer18 ( 01 ) __________________________ 29

47 __ 5.3 __ 67.0 __ SummerShower ( 16 ) _____________________ 26

48 __ 5.3 __ 62.0 __ noname_weather ( 56 ) ___________________ 34

50 __ 5.3 __ 75.0 __ JeffC ( L1-3 ) _______________________________ 15

49 __ 4.9 __ 67.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 37 ) _________________________27

51 __ 4.8 __ 57.0 __ SteveB ( 10 ) _______________________________40

52 __ 4.8 __ 84.0 __ Godber1 ( 52 ) _____________________________ 7

54 __ 4.7 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man ( L1-2  ) ___________________

53 __ 4.4 __ 47.0 __ cymro ( 34 ) _______________________________43

55 __ 4.3 __ 92.0 __ Stationary Front ( 49 ) _____________________ 2

56 __ 4.1 __ 16.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 05 ) ________________________55

57 __ 4.0 __ 80.2 __ Polar Gael ( 07 ) ___________________________ 9

58 __ 3.9 __ 72.0 __ jonboy ( 48 ) ______________________________ 16

59 __ 3.9 __ 70.0 __ daniel* ( 35 ) ______________________________18

61 __ 3.8 __ 58.0 __ stewfox ( 38 ) _____________________________ 38

60 __ 3.6 __ --- ---__ Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-1 ) ______________

63 __ 3.1 __ 68.0 __ Blast From the Past ( L2-1 ) _______________ 28

62 __ 2.3 __ 68.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 12 ) ___________________22

=================================

Note: for the purposes of best combined forecasts, CET ranks are jogged by one per late day to capture the scoring mechanics in the CET scoring system, but when you see lists of top finishers in official CET scoring tables these late penalties don't immediately appear. They do show up inside the more complex scoring file. This may explain any apparent "out of order" CET ranks in the above, meanwhile EWP ranks already have late penalties applied. 

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, Frigid said:

2nd halves of March CET's

2023 - 10.2C

2022 - 9.2C

2017 (3rd warmest March CET) - 9.9C

1938 (2nd warmest March CET) - 10.7C

1957 (warmest March CET) - 9.8C

March 2023 really did a December 2022, a cold first half, then exceptionally mild second half. 

 

 

Remarkable given how exceptionally dull March was; normally high temps in March are associated with warm, sunny anticyclonic conditions.

A symptom of the unusually prevalent southwesterlies, producing somewhat-mild days but extremely mild nights. Very like the synoptically very similar March 1981 as it happens.

And a whole degree warmer than the second half of March 2022, even though most would consider the weather conditions of a year ago infinitely more spring like. Colder, clear nights last year is doubtless the cause.

Edited April 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[summer blizzard]

Where does the second half of March 12 stand.

[Don]

6 hours ago, Frigid said:

2nd halves of March CET's

2023 - 10.2C

2022 - 9.2C

2017 (3rd warmest March CET) - 9.9C

1938 (2nd warmest March CET) - 10.7C

1957 (warmest March CET) - 9.8C

March 2023 really did a December 2022, a cold first half, then exceptionally mild second half. 

 

 

The end of March last year was actually cold with a little snow and this continued into early April.  March 2023 was indeed similar to 2005, but the main difference was that year had warmer spells of weather with temperatures into the low 20's during the second half, whereas this year had consistent mild days and nights without anything extreme.

[J10]

Downloads

PDF SummaryMar 2023 Summary.pdf
PDF Overall SummaryMar 2023 Summary Overall.pdf
Monthly SpreadsheetMar 2023 CET.xlsx

Monthly
5 players this month within 0.1c

The PIT who got 7.0c spot on and Typhoon John, Leo97t, snowray and davehsug0.1c out.

Seasonal
The Spring competition largely matches the Monthly competition.

Overall

A few changes in the Top 5 this month, with 2 new Entrants.

Leo97t 1st (from 2nd)
davehsug 2nd (from 5th)
The PIT 3rd (from 15th)
Typhoon John 4th (from 16th)
DR(S)NO 5th (from 3rd)

 

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Where does the second half of March 12 stand.

I know you prefer 1-16 and 17-31 as halves of 31-day months (I probably do as well) but playing along with the theme here, I had a look at v2.0 data base to find the warmest values for 16th to 31st, those are: 

Rank ____ Year ____ Avg CET 16-31 (v2.0)

_ 01 _____ 2005 ___ 10.34

_ 02 _____ 1938 ___ 10.04

_ 03 _____ 2023 ____ 9.58

_ 04 _____ 2012 ____ 9.39

_ 05 _____ 1945 ____ 9.36

_ 06t_____ 1803 ____ 9.34

_ 06t_____ 1936 ____ 9.34

_ 08 _____ 2017 ____ 9.30

_ 09 _____ 1957 ____ 9.15

_ 10 _____ 1815 ____ 9.11

_ 11 _____ 1920 ____ 9.08

_ 12 _____ 2021 ____ 9.03

_ 13t_____ 1830 ____ 8.84

_ 13t_____ 1998 ____ 8.84

_ 15 _____ 1779 ____ 8.78

(note, some of my numbers are different from the discussion above, I come up with 8.6 for the relevant period in 2022, and to get 9.2 I can only find that as an average for 16th to 29th. Possibly the discussion above is based on numbers somebody was working on before the month ended and do not extend to the 31st. The last two days of March 2022 were quite cold). 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

EWP tracker ended at 134.7 mm, which ties with 1818 in third place. As this value will likely change slightly on (or after) the 5th, as a table value, I won't bother to adjust the average errors in the EWP scoring table, that can be done on (or after) the 5th. 

[Scorcher]

19 hours ago, Don said:

7.0C it was then!  What looked likely to be the first below average month of 2023 fell by the wayside.  Had to wait until December last year for a genuinely below average month in 2022. 

You called 7.0C quite a few days ago to be fair to you Don.

[Earthshine]

Wow, thought I seriously overestimated the CET considered the hype at the start of the month.  The weighting towards warmer is just so strong these days that despite a SSW we can't even manage below the 1961-1990 average.

[Don]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

You called 7.0C quite a few days ago to be fair to you Don.

I did, just a pity I didn't call it at the start of the month, but to be fair it looked rather unlikely then! 

[Snowyowl9]

On 31/03/2023 at 14:49, Froze were the Days said:

How's Fred's close to record cold going for the month?

Close to record wet march nothing crazy like other recent months in the last decade or so but just over 6 inches still the wettest I ve recorded..

But also who needs a near record cold month when you can get near record snowfalls instead..

Edited April 2, 2023 by Snowyowl9

[Don]

4 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Wow, thought I seriously overestimated the CET considered the hype at the start of the month.  The weighting towards warmer is just so strong these days that despite a SSW we can't even manage below the 1961-1990 average.

Yep, doesn't make for a nice reading at all!

[Weather-history]

4 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Wow, thought I seriously overestimated the CET considered the hype at the start of the month.  The weighting towards warmer is just so strong these days that despite a SSW we can't even manage below the 1961-1990 average.

 

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Yep, doesn't make for a nice reading at all!

December 2022 was comfortably below its 1961-90 average and the was no SSW involved. Have we forgotten this already?

 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

December 2022 was comfortably below its 1961-90 average and the was no SSW involved. Have we forgotten this already?

 

Nope