March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Midlands Ice Age]

6.3C and 70mms please...

MIA

[mulzy]

5.5C and 76mm please

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll go with 5.7c and 110mm - looks like a wet one!

[Norrance]

5.8c and 58m s please.

[jonboy]

Can I amend my temp quess to 3.9 please 

[Stationary Front]

4.3 please with 92 mm

[davehsug]

6.9C & 59mm please.

[Mark Bayley]

5.9c please 

[Godber 1]

4.8c and 84mm please.

[J10]

6.8c and 68mm

[February1978]

6.4c and 77mm please

A few cold days, but then a westerly breakdown

[Derecho]

7.2C please, a chilly start but the CET rapidly rising as SLP builds to our south again towards the end of next week.

The excitement I have towards this cold spell is rapidly failing and I think after the first 10 days it will be normal service resumed.

Sudden south-westerlies after our brief Arctic blast.

[noname_weather]

5.3C and 62mm

[Mapantz]

5.9°C / 66mm

[Don]

6.1C and 90mm please.

[Frigid]

On 20/02/2023 at 20:41, Frigid said:

There's a good chance March will be colder than the previous two months, something that hasn't happened since 2013

Going for 4.4C and 35mm. Thanks

Just to be safe.. 5.8C and 80mm. Thanks

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for March 2023

CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) ________________ CET _ EWP _ FORECASTER (order of entry) ___________ 

7.8 __ 65.0 __ Summer Blizzard ( 30 ) ______________________ 5.9 __ 44.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 09 ) __________________

7.6 __ 56.0 __ SLEETY ( 22 ) _________________________________5.9 __ 67.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard ( 23 ) ___________________

7.4 __ 37.0 __ Metwatch ( 19 ) ______________________________5.9 __ --- ---__ damianslaw ( 31 ) ________________________

7.3 __ 85.0 __ syed2878 ( 13 ) ______________________________5.9 __ --- --- _ Mark Bayley ( 51 ) _________________________

7.2 __ --- ---__ Quicksilver1989 ( 55 ) _______________________ 5.9 __ 66.0 __ Mapantz ( 57 ) ____________________________

7.1 __ --- ---__ Typhoon John ( 06 ) __________________________5.8 __ 59.5 __ Bobd29 ( 02 ) _____________________________

7.1 __ 90.0 __ Leo97t ( 26 ) _________________________________5.8 __ --- ---__ Man with Beard ( 39 ) ____________________

7.0 __ 30.0 __ The PIT ( 17 ) ________________________________ 5.8 __ 58.0 __ Norrance ( 47 ) ___________________________

6.9 __ 59.0 __ davehsug ( 50 ) ______________________________5.8 __ 80.0 __ Frigid ( 59 ) ________________________________

6.9 __ 88.5 __ snowray ( 28 ) _______________________________5.7 __110.0__ProlongedSnowLover ( 46 ) _______________

6.8 __ 28.0 __ catbrainz ( 04 ) ______________________________ 5.6 __ 45.0 __ seaside60 ( 29 ) ___________________________

6.8 __ 23.0 __ Moorlander ( 18 ) ___________________________ 5.5 __ 55.0 __ Methuselah ( 08 ) ________ was EdStone___

6.8 __ 72.0 __ rwtwm ( 42 ) _________________________________5.5 __ 60.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 15 ) ___________________

6.8 __ 68.0 __ J 10 ( 53 ) ____________________________________ 5.5 __ 32.0 __ Pegg24 ( 32 ) _____________________________

6.7 __ 74.0 __ Reef ( 27 ) ___________________________________ 5.5 __ 76.0 __ Mulzy ( 45 ) _______________________________

6.7 __ 65.4 __ 1991-2020 average (93-22 63.6 mm) _________5.4 __ 45.8 __ Roger J Smith ( 33 ) _______________________

6.6 __ 68.0 __ Wold Topper ( 41 ) __________________________ 5.4 __ 48.0 __ Weather Observer ( 43 ) __________________

6.6 __ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 average __________________________ 5.3 __ 66.0 __ Summer18 ( 01 ) __________________________

6.5 __ 35.0 __ chilly milly ( 03 ) _____________________________ 5.3 __ 67.0 __ SummerShower ( 16 ) ____________________

6.5 __ 65.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 14 ) _______________________________ 5.3 __ 62.0 __ noname_weather ( 56 ) __________________

_____________________________________________________________5.3 __ 75.0 __ JeffC ( L1-3 ) ______________________________

6.5 __ 70.0 __ freeze ( 36 ) __________________________________4.9 __ 67.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 37 ) ________________________ 

6.5 __ 40.0 __ Earthshine ( 40 ) _____________________________4.8 __ 57.0 __ SteveB ( 10 ) ______________________________

6.4 __ 62.6 __ LetItSnow! ( 25 ) _____________________________ 4.8 __ 84.0 __ Godber1 ( 52 ) ____________________________

_____________________________________________________________ 4.7 __ --- --- __ Kentish Man ( L1-2  ) _____________________

6.4 __ 77.0 __ February1978 ( 54 ) __________________________4.4 __ 47.0 __ cymro ( 34 ) ___________________________

6.3 __ 82.0 __ virtualsphere ( 11 ) ___________________________4.3 __ 92.0 __ Stationary Front ( 49 ) _____________________ 

6.3 __ 75.0 __ I remember Atlantic 252 ( 24 ) _______________ 4.1 __ 16.0 __ shillitocettwo ( 05 ) ________________________

6.3 __ 70.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 44 ) _______________________ 4.0 __ 80.2 __ Polar Gael ( 07 ) __________________________

6.2 __ --- ---__ Summer Sun ( 20 ) ____________________________3.9 __ 72.0 __ jonboy ( 48 ) ______________________________

6.1 __ 69.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 21 ) ________________________3.9 __ 70.0 __ daniel* ( 35 ) ______________________________

6.1 __ 90.0 __ Don ( 58 ) _____________________________________3.8 __ 58.0 __ stewfox ( 38 ) ______________________________

________________ _________________ ___________________ ________3.6 __ --- ---__ Walsall Wood Snow ( L1-1 ) ________________

____ ____ ____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____ ___ ___ __ __ _ _ 3.1 __ 68.0 __ Blast From the Past ( L2-1 ) _______________

5.9 __ 67.0 __ consensus ___________________________________ 2.3 __ 68.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 12 ) ___________________

__ 59 on time forecasts, consensus 5.9 __

(so far, three 1d late forecasts added and one 2d late _ 63 total)

=================================

EWP forecasts in order

110_pSL .. 92_SF .. 90_Leo, Don .. 88.5_snow .. 85_syed .. 84_godb .. 82_virt .. 80.2_PG

 80_Frig .. 77_Feb78 .. 76_Mul ..  75_I rem,Jeff^ .. 74_Reef .. 72_jon, rwtwm ..  71.5 _81-10

 70_dan, fre, MIA .. 69_EG .. 68.8_KW .. 68_WT,J10,BFTP^^ .. 67_Feb91, SumSh, MrM .. 66_sum18, Map ..

 65.4 _91-20 .. 65_DR(S), sb ..  63.6 _93-22 .. 62.6_LIS .. 62_non

 60_DRL .. 59.5_Bobd .. 59_dave .. 58_stew, Norr .. 57_Ste .. 56_SLE

 55_Meth .. 48_WxOb .. 47_cym .. 45.8_ RJS .. 45_sea .. 44_dww

 40_Earth .. 35_ cm .. 37_Met .. 32_pegg .. 30_PIT .. 28_cat .. 23_Moor .. 16_shil

-------------------------------------

_ 53 on time forecasts, plus one marked ^ one day late, and one 2d late,  55 total ... consensus (median) 67.0 mm

============================================

<< FORECASTS will be accepted until the end of Friday 3rd March, with increasing late penalties. These late forecasts will be edited into the tables. >>

Edited March 2, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'll go for 3.6c please (sorry for the late entry).

[Kentish Man]

Sorry one day late. My guess 4.7C

[JeffC]

Sorry I'm late

5.3C 75mm

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3.1c  and 68mm

 

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

 

March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2022 extremes

all data shown now converted to v2.0 _ 1909 lost two record low daily means (-2.9 4th and tied -2,.8 5th) and both of those were increased by almost a full degree in v2.0. 1875 lost a record high to 2014 on 7th with just a small drop from 10.9 to 10.7. On 18th, 1853 maintained a record low despite rising to -1.1 C, the value attained by 2018 in CET legacy, but it also warmed 0,.1 to -1.0, so continued to be a very close second lowest for that date. 1903 lost a record high to 1927 on 22nd, and 1886 replaced tied 1852, 1945 on 23rd. Otherwise, most of the records are the same for years, and within 0.2 for values in most cases. (v2.0 only began to change legacy values in 1853). 

 

--------- (daily record means, 1772-2022) -- (1981-2010 avg) -------- (extreme running means) ---

DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN ___________ CET date, cum ________ Running CET extreme values

01 Mar ... 10.9 (1878) ... ... -3.7 (2018.)... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 10.9 (1878.) ... ... -3.7 (2018.)
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... -3.1 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.2 (1878) ... ... -3.0 (2018.) 
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... -3.8 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.3 (1801) ... ... -2.0 (1965)
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... -2.8 (1845) ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 10.0 (1801,59) ... -1.9 (1965)
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... -2.8 (1786) ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... -1.5 (1947)

06 Mar ... 12.1 (1989) ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.2 ... ... .... 9.9 (1859) ... ... -1.7 (1786)
07 Mar ... 10.8 (2014) ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.4 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.7 (1786, 1947)
08 Mar ... 12.1 (2000) ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... 5.5 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.9 (1786)
09 Mar ... 12.5 (1948) ... ... -2.6 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.6 ... ... .... 9.8 (1834) ... ... -1.8 (1786)
10 Mar ... 11.5 (1957) ... ... -2.1 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.8 ... ... 5.7 ... ... .... 9.7 (1834) ... ... -1.6 (1786)

11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.5 (1834) ... ... -1.1 (1786)
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.4 (1834) ... ... -0.6 (1786, 1947)
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... 5.8 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1786, 1947)
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 5.9 ... ... .... 9.1 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
15 Mar ... 12.0 (1884) ... ... -1.5 (1845,1867) ..... 7.0 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)

16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.0 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
17 Mar ... 13.1 (2005) ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... 6.1 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957)^...... -0.7 (1845)
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... -1.1 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.5 (1845)
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.5 (1957) ... ... -0.6 (1845)

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,31,2002).-1.6 (1899) .... . .... 6.6 ... ... 6.2 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.4 (1845)
22 Mar ... 12.2 (1927) ... ... .-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... -0.1 (1845)
23 Mar ... 12.4 (1886) ... ... .-0.8 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.2 (1845)
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... .-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... 6.3 ... ... .... 9.4 (1957) ... ... +0.4 (1845)
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... .-1.1 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +0.7 (1845)
26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... .-0.3 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.0 (1845)

27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ...  -0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... 6.4 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785, 1845)

28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822) ... ...  -0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.5 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.3 (1785)
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ...  -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.3 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)
30 Mar ... 15.2 (2017) ..... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)

31 Mar ... 14.4 (2021) ... ... .-0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... 6.6 ... ... .... 9.2 (1957) ... ... +1.2 (1785)**

________________________________________________________________________

^ 1961 had reached its highest point, 9.3 on the 17th. 

** 1674 had a mean CET of 1.0 so was colder here and possibly on earlier dates in the month too. 

________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 daily and running CET values

1 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 6 ___ 6.1 __ 5.2 ______ 11 ___ 6.8 __ 5.9 ______ 16 ___ 7.8 __ 6.3 ______ 21 ___ 6.8 __ 6.4 ______ 26 ___ 7.2 __ 6.6

2 ____ 4.9 __ 5.0 _____ 7 ___ 6.6 __ 5.4 ______ 12 ___ 6.4 __ 5.9 ______ 17 ___ 7.7 __ 6.4 ______ 22 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 27 ___ 7.0 __ 6.6

3 ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 _____ 8 ___ 6.7 __ 5.5 ______ 13 ___ 6.7 __ 6.0 ______ 18 ___ 6.9 __ 6.4 ______ 23 ___ 7.0 __ 6.5 ______ 28 ___ 7.4 __ 6.6

4 ____ 4.8 __ 4.9 _____ 9 ___ 6.7 __ 5.6 ______ 14 ___ 6.8 __ 6.1 ______ 19 ___ 6.7 __ 6.4 ______ 24 ___ 7.3 __ 6.5 ______ 29 ___ 7.4 __ 6.7

5 ____ 5.2 __ 5.0_____10 ___ 7.0 __ 5.8 ______ 15 ___ 7.5 __ 6.2 ______ 20 ___ 7.1 __ 6.4 ______ 25 ___ 7.5 __ 6.6 ______ 30 ___ 8.0 __ 6.7

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________31 ___ 8.4 __ 6.747

____________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ _______________________________

 

[Weather-history]

Question is how cold the first half of this March could get? 

 

[Roger J Smith]

I posted a summary of cold starts to March over in the Feb thread, will bring it over here tomorrow once the forecast entries are more or less done. 

Running CET below 3.0 quite rare in the recent past (1st-10th), were a bit more common up to perhaps 1955 or so. The coldest since 1947 was 1965 which was just above zero by 10th. 

Looking at current guidance I am thinking perhaps a running mean of 1.5 to 2.0 at some point, which would be quite noteworthy. A lot of these cold starts seem to reverse around mid-month to a much warmer pattern, not always of course, but 1965 certainly did. 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

Here's that cold March 1-10 material ... 

coldest starts to March (1-10 CET)

(this list only includes 1772-2022, with daily v2.0 data used ... Mar 1674 had outcome of 1.0, wonder what its value on 10th was?)

(cutoff is 2.0 to 1947 and coldest values since 1947 added with ranks for these 1948-2022 - coldest five recent are in main list)

for outcomes (end of March CET) __ rank A is the rank overall 1659-2022, rank B is within the daily data interval 1772-2022

... these ranks are only tracked to t29 coldest (3.2)

Rank __ Year ___ CET 1-10 ___ outcome (rank A, B)

_ 01 ___ 1786 ___-1.6 ______ 2.1 (t7, t4)

_ 02 ___ 1947 ___-1.0 ______ 3.6

_t03 ___ 1886 ___-0.1 ______ 4.2 

_t03 ___ 1892 ___-0.1 ______ 2.7 (t12, t9)

_ 05 ___ 1785 ___ 0.2 ______ 1.2 (2nd, 1st) ___ lowest running mean -0.2 on 14th

_t06 ___ 1800 ___ 0.3 ______ 4.0

_t06 ___ 1909 ___ 0.3 ______ 3.7

_t06 ___ 1931 ___ 0.3 ______ 4.2

_t09 ___ 1858 ___ 0.4 ______ 4.9

_t09 ___ 1965 ___ 0.4 ______ 5.3 ___ also ranks 1st in coldest since 1947

_ 11 ___ 1845 ___ 0.5 ______ 2.0 (t5, 3rd) ___ lowest running mean -0.7 on 17th

_t12 ___ 1796 ___ 0.6 ______ 4.2

_t12 ___ 1814 ___ 0.6 ______ 2.9 (t18, t13) ___ lowest running mean 0.4 on 19th

_t12 ___ 1970 ___ 0.6 ______ 3.7 ___ also ranks 2nd in coldest since 1947

_t15 ___ 1820 ___ 0.7 ______ 4.7

_t15 ___ 1946 ___ 0.7 ______ 5.1

_t17 ___ 1783 ___ 1.2 ______ 3.3

_t17 ___ 1788 ___ 1.2 ______ 3.6

_t17 ___ 1843 ___ 1.2 ______ 5.6

_t17 ___ 1917 ___ 1.2 ______ 3.2 (t29, t18)

_ 21 ___ 1889 ___ 1.4 ______ 4.7

_ 22 ___ 1916 ___ 1.5 ______ 3.3

_t23 ___ 1839 ___ 1.6 ______ 4.2

_t23 ___ 1955 ___ 1.6 ______ 3.2 (t29, t18) ___ also ranks 3rd in coldest since 1947

_ 25 ___ 1789 ___ 1.7 ______ 2.1 (t7, t4)

_t26 ___ 1807 ___ 1.8 ______ 2.9 (t18, t13)

_t26 ___ 1962 ___ 1.8 ______ 2.8 _(t14, t11) __ also ranks 4th in coldest since 1947

_t28 ___ 1866 ___ 1.9 ______ 4.8

_t28 ___ 1942 ___ 1.9 ______ 5.2

_t30 ___ 1937 ___ 2.0 ______ 3.6

_t30 ___ 1971 ___ 2.0 ______ 4.9 ___ also ranks 5th in coldest since 1947

 

Top 20 cold months not in the above list:

(1883 was 2.5 1-10 and finished 1.9) _ 4th coldest (2nd coldest in daily data)

(1837 was 3.3 1-10 and finished 2.3) _ 9th coldest (t6 coldest in daily data)

(1784 was 4.5 1-10 and finished 2.7) _ t12 coldest (t9 coldest in daily data)

(1865 was 3.8 1-10 and finished 2.9) _ t18 coldest (t13 coldest in daily data)

 

cold months of March before daily data, so the following cannot be ranked above (among coldest 25 only)

1674 finished 1.0 (coldest)

1748 finished 1.8 (3rd coldest)

1667 finished 2.0 (t5th coldest)

1747, 1770 finished 2.5 (t10 coldest)

1701, 1729 finished 2.8 (t14 coldest)

1675, 1684, 1693, 1709 finished 3.0 (t21 coldest)

 

(coldest starts 1-10 since 1947 and not below 2.0 _ five colder than 1949 are in the list above)

_ 06 ___ 1949 ___ 2.1 ______ 5.1

_t07 ___ 1951 ___ 2.7 ______ 4.1

_t07 ___ 1953 ___ 2.7 ______ 5.6

_t07 ___ 1964 ___ 2.7 ______ 4.3

_t07 ___ 1969 ___ 2.7 ______ 3.4

_ 11 ___ 1987 ___ 2.8 ______ 4.1

_ 12 ___ 2010 ___ 3.0 ______ 6.2

_ 13 ___ 2005 ___ 3.1 ______ 7.1

_ 14 ___ 2006 ___ 3.2 ______ 5.0 __ running mean 1.0 for 1-6, 3.2 by 23rd, 3.0 sev'l days between 10th and 23rd

_t15 ___ 1976 ___ 3.4 ______ 4.8

_t15 ___ 1986 ___ 3.4 ______ 5.0

_t15 ___ 2018 ___ 3.4 ______ 5.0

_ 18 ___ 1974 ___ 3.5 ______ 5.7

_ 19 ___ 1954 ___ 3.7 ______ 5.8

_t20 ___ 1958 ___ 3.9 ______ 3.7 __ lowest running mean 2.6 23rd

_t20 ___ 1968 ___ 3.9 ______ 6.3

_t20 ___ 1995 ___ 3.9 ______ 5.5

_t23 ___ 2011 ___ 4.0 ______ 6.8

_t23 ___ 2016 ___ 4.0 ______ 5.8 

(2013 was 4.7 by 10th, ended 2.8) _t14 coldest

(2021 was 4.6 by 10th, ended 7.3)

______________________________________________________________

This study shows a general warming trend in March, as most of the cold starts for March were in the era ending with 1947.

The colder more recent years are mostly in the range of 2.0 to 4.0 (only five are colder), which used to be fairly close to average in the 18th-19th centuries. 

We'll see if 2023 even cracks the recent cold list, but in any case, the outcomes are scattered over quite a wide range, a few of these cold starts flipped to very warm temperatures near the end (like 1946, 1965, 1968). Others remained cold to the end. But most warmed slightly into the 3.5 to 5.0 range. Of the coldest 31, the median outcome was 4.2 C. Of the nineteen additional cold starts above 2.0 in recent decades, the median outcome was 5.1.