March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

4.3c to the 7th

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Could be on 4 degrees tomorrow, and then into the 3s by the weekend.

[Daniel*]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Could be on 4 degrees tomorrow, and then into the 3s by the weekend.

Pershore and Rothamsted had a subzero daily CET yesterday Rothamsted max 1.2C and min -2.5C. Very cold for March. Expect a big ish drop! 

Edited March 9, 2023 by Daniel*

[Frigid]

Drop of 0.5C. Yesterday's CET was -0.0C. Expecting an adjustment but that's the 15th sub zero CET for the winter. Still a few days of cold, so 2C ain't out of the question.

[Summer Sun]

3.8c to the 8th

1.9c below the 61 to 90 average
1.7c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is around 20 mm now (based on 9.7 mm to 7th, 7 mm 8th and 3 mm more to 12z), and 12z GFS says 80 mm regional grid average to 25th, for a total of 100 mm. This is a lot more than almost everyone in the contest predicted, the two highest predictions were 110 mm from prolongedSnowLover and 92 mm from Stationary Front, with Leo97t and Don saying 90 mm. Well done to them if these predictions continue to materialize. Will give you some idea what the top ten will look like after this month, if the scoring goes straight down the list from top to bottom as is now indicated. 

Meanwhile, yesterday's CET values were very low although not quite date records (max 2.2, mean 0.0, min -2.3 -- the records in v2.0 are low mean -3.1 from 1786 but as that's before the max, min era, cannot contribute to those, and the low max is 0.6 from 1917 when the min was -6.2 for a daily mean of -2.8, while the low min was -6.6 from 1947 with a max that day of 4.3 so the mean in 1947 was -1.1). Yesterday was the coldest 8th of March since 1970 (-0.5 mean). A three-day subzero mean interval began on 9th in 1958 though. None of the values for 8th mentioned above were changed from CET legacy. 

CET could reach its lowest point after Saturday (or level with Friday) at around 3.2 and will then jump up to about 4 C after two very mild days Sunday-Monday. From there, a rather cool spell follows, the mean seems likely to stall in the vicinity of 4 C for about a week, and may then rise slowly in the week of 18th to 24th with somewhat more average conditions depicted. That may leave the CET in the low 5 range near the end of the month (which suits me fine).

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

3.8c to the 8th

1.9c below the 61 to 90 average
1.7c below the 81 to 10 average

A mighty drop in 2 days.. tomorrow could easily see it down to 3.5 degrees, we may bottom out aroudn 3.2 degrees, with a rise thereafter though marked difference north-south CET zone.

[LetItSnow!]

Potentially two colder months in the space of a couple months. Not of interest in a historical perspective but an interesting change compared to the relentless warmth that lasted from September 2021 to November 2022. Indeed, the atmosphere in our part of the world started go colder in late 2020 and through much of early 2021… a return to this or will warmer than average weather persist yet again? Very interesting times. 

[Roger J Smith]

The 00z GFS continues the theme of a wet month with eventual totals over 100 mm for the EWP. If that happens, the scoring for the EWP contest would look like this for the top scores, including all of top 50 and anyone else who placed a forecast in March: 

Note: added one feature, as prolongedSnowLover is 18 mm above Stationary Front's 92 mm, what if outcome is 92-100 mm and pSL does not score 10.00? This added feature is the minimum outcome still over 92 mm to gain you 0.19 points, and for pSL, a range of outcomes is defined, the more people gain 0.19, the same number of multiples of 0.19 are lost by pSL (at an outcome of 91.1 mm that equates to 14 losses or 2.66 fewer points shared by ten other forecasters). If we finish below 91.1 mm then a more complicated adjustment takes place.  If you predicted under 74 mm your rank and score does not change in this analysis and the entry in the added column reads -- --. 

RANK _ FORECASTER _ POINTS ___ (outcome for +0.19)
 

1. February1978 ________ 32.21 ____ 93.4 mm 

2, Mulzy _________________ 31.59 ____ 92.9 mm

3. prolongedSnowLover__29.99 ____ loses 0.19x n where n is number of forecasters gaining at any amount 91-101 (max 1.90)

4, Leo97t ________________ 29.21 ____ 99.9 mm

5. Emmett Garland ______ 28.15

6, snowray ______________ 27.41 ____ 99.2 mm

7. bobd29 _______________ 27.26

8. cymro _________________26,11

9. Stationary Front ______ 25.98 ____100.9 mm

10. jonboy _______________ 25.91

t11. Feb1991Blizzard ____ 25.78

t11. Jeff C ________________ 25.78 ____ 92.4 mm

13. virtualsphere ________ 25.64 ____ 95.9 mm

14, Midlands Ice Age ____ 25.07

15. Dr(S)No ______________ 25.05

16, Polar Gael ___________ 24.69 ____ 95.1 mm

17. Reef _________________ 24.08 ____ 91.9 mm

18. Norrance ____________ 23.76

19. DiagonalRedLine ____ 23.06

20. Godber1 ____________ 22.62 ____ 96.9 mm

21. Don _________________ 22.31 ____ 99.9 mm

22. freeze _______________ 22.23

23. seaside60 ___________ 22.04

24. daniel* ______________ 21.69

25. J 10 __________________ 21.68

26. Roger J Smith _______ 20.65

27. Weather Observer __ 20.40

28. noname_weather ___ 19.38

29. syed2878 ___________ 18.67 ____ 97.4 mm

30. BlastFromThePast __ 18.63

31. summer8906 (3/4) __ 18.62 (no Mar fcst)

32. SteveB ______________ 17.98

33. Wold Topper ________ 17.97

34. I Rem Atl 252 (3/4) __ 17.62 ____ 92.4 mm

35. Methuselah (EdS) ___ 17.59

36, Mapantz _____________ 17.06

37. summer18 ___________17.04

38. rwtwm _______________16.89

39. Thundery Wintry Sh _ 16.50 (no Mar fcst, 3/4)

40. davehsug ____________ 15.71

41. Summer Shower _____14.96

42, Mr Maunder _________ 14.78

43, SLEETY _______________14.39

44, dancerwithwings ____ 14.25

45, Let It Snow! (3/4) ____ 14.06

46. summer blizzard ____ 13.96

47. Weather26 (3/4) _____ 13.57 (no Mar fcst)

48. Kirkcaldy Weather (3/4) _12.94

49. Earthshine (3/4) ______ 12.17

50. shillitocettwo ________ 11.65

52. Frigid ________________ 11.28 ____ 84.9 mm

53, stewfox (3/4) ________ 11.17

54. The PIT ______________ 11.07

58. Moorlander ___________8.63

66. catbrainz (2/4) ________ 5.12

76. Metwatch (3/4) _______ 2.47

78. chilly milly ____________ 2.27

80. Pegg24 (2/4) __________ 2.16

____________________________________________

The scores are probably fairly resistant to change as anything over 80 mm will produce almost the same results, except that a finish that low would drop prolongedSnowLover down a few ranks while most others in the top half gained very slightly. 

Of course this is speculative at this point and will be replaced by official scoring results later. 

 

(summary of actual forecasts)

110_pSL .. 92_SF .. 90_Leo, Don .. 88.5_snow .. 85_syed .. 84_godb .. 82_virt .. 80.2_PG

 80_Frig .. 77_Feb78 .. 76_Mul ..  75_I rem,Jeff^ .. 74_Reef .. 72_jon, rwtwm ..  71.5 _81-10

 70_dan, fre, MIA .. 69_EG .. 68.8_KW .. 68_WT,J10,BFTP^^ .. 67_Feb91, SumSh, MrM .. 66_sum18, Map ..

 65.4 _91-20 .. 65_DR(S), sb ..  63.6 _93-22 .. 62.6_LIS .. 62_non

 60_DRL .. 59.5_Bobd .. 59_dave .. 58_stew, Norr .. 57_Ste .. 56_SLE

 55_Meth .. 48_WxOb .. 47_cym .. 45.8_ RJS .. 45_sea .. 44_dww

 40_Earth .. 35_ cm .. 37_Met .. 32_pegg .. 30_PIT .. 28_cat .. 23_Moor .. 16_shil

Edited March 13, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Weather-history]

On 07/03/2023 at 22:47, LetItSnow! said:

A cold March is by no means guaranteed, but for interest's sake I took a look at notably colder Marches following mild Februaries since 1900 and there's not a whole lot.

March 1908 (5.3 vs 4.3)

March 1937 (5.6 vs 3.6)

March 1946 (5.9 vs 5.1)

March 1949 (5.7 vs 5.1)

March 1980 (5.8 vs 4.7)

March 1995 (6.5 vs 5.5)

And for more novelty's sake, here's some analogues for the springs and summers that follow.

 A fairly warm and dry April.

Possibly a very warm May but thundery for the south, ala 2018.

Quite a mixed and unsettled June with probably near-normal temperatures.

One of those July's that's probably cool, wet and dull for England but dry and fine for Scotland.

Similar for August but probably drier and sunnier but still cool due to the presence of a Euro trough. Probably gorgeous for Scotland and dull for England (1978 and 2021 spring to mind).

 

Any excuses to bring out the data with me 

This is the problem I have with these analogues that are posted from time to time, I can tell just looking at the years given, they gave big difference in  weather for the UK.

There's summer 1980 and 1995 and they were totally different. So there's a possibility that this summer could range from a 1980 type  to a 1995 type. Well that about covers a lot of bases! 

[LetItSnow!]

7 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

This is the problem I have with these analogues that are posted from time to time, I can tell just looking at the years given, they gave big difference in  weather for the UK.

There's summer 1980 and 1995 and they were totally different. So there's a possibility that this summer could range from a 1980 type  to a 1995 type. Well that about covers a lot of bases! 

Well it’s only a joking analogue really, don’t pay too much minf to it. Second of all, I don’t read analogues so much the same way. I tend to take the results at face value and look at the blending of those years to see what the overall pattern could be like rather than deciding what year will repeat itself, but understanding that one of the years highlighted may be a stronger match so to speak. 

[Weather-history]

20 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Well it’s only a joking analogue really, don’t pay too much minf to it. Second of all, I don’t read analogues so much the same way. I tend to take the results at face value and look at the blending of those years to see what the overall pattern could be like rather than deciding what year will repeat itself, but understanding that one of the years highlighted may be a stronger match so to speak. 

I know you are not being serious but I have seen some long term forecasters who use these as examples of what the pressure patterns will be like. Then you look at the corresponding years and often they gave varying weather types for the UK. How can you make a UK forecast based on this? 

Edited March 10, 2023 by Weather-history

[LetItSnow!]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I know you are not being serious but I have seen some long term forecasters who use these as examples of what the pressure patterns will be like. Then you look at the corresponding years and often they gave varying weather types for the UK. How can you make a UK forecast based on this? 

If only forecasting was so easy! 

[kold weather]

Could be a exceptionally cold night in the CET zone and I think a min date record is within reach.

Probably a good chance of getting into the top 10 coldest March mins as well out to the 1890s.

Ad for the mean, much depends how the Met Office classify the maxes, but if its 24hrs the mean may lead to a date record still being missed. If its just recording Saturday itself maxes, we nay see a date record fall, though it'd be close.

[Summer Sun]

3.6c to the 9th

2.1c below the 61 to 90 average
2.0c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 3.3C -2.0C below average. Rainfall 44.5mm 73.4% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

Will update EWP tomorrow as the 9th added a large amount to the 17 mm for 8th, and today is not as prolific. But the estimate would be 35 mm now, 100 mm by end of GFS run (now 26th). 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 3.3C I think I read yesterdays value incorrectly.  So -2.1C below average. Rainfall 48.9mm 80.7% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

3.5c to the 10th

2.2c below the 61 to 90 average
2.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Looks like we will 'bottom' out tomorrow, possibly down to 3.3 degrees, then a steady climb but not significantly so with temps evening out around or about below average in the coming week. Still a long way to go, and much can change as happened in 2006 for example when a major warm up last week prevented a notably cold March. However, good odds this March will be below average I say.

Edited March 11, 2023 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update, 38 mm is estimate to date (34 to 10th), 40-50 mm is GFS estimate for 12th to 28th 06z. Still looks like 90-100 mm by finish. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The CET will imo at least hold or drop, the recent cold isn’t the ‘hit’ I’ve been expecting as it was too short, that’s from next week on….

 

BFTP

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The CET will imo at least hold or drop, the recent cold isn’t the ‘hit’ I’ve been expecting as it was too short, that’s from next week on….

 

BFTP

Keep shifting those goalposts!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

Keep shifting those goalposts!

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted January 3

Location: Redhill, Surrey

March 23…..a month to remember.  HP control 1st ten days or so, either cold continental or milder SE/S’ly flow.  Dramatic Deep LP plunges over UK SSE bringing coldest 2nd half of month for decades.  Cyclonic N and NE’ly winds

 

BFTP
 

 

Yes the models did make one think that the cold spell was ushering quicker than anticipated.  But goalposts still in place

 

BFTP

Edited March 12, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

3.4c to the 11th

2.3c below the 61 to 90 average
2.4c below the 81 to 10 average