Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM and UKMO are excellent this morning of snow and cold is your bag.

The whole evolution is on a knife edge though. It’ll take another 24-48 hours of runs to firm up. The fork in the road is reasonably close.

Edited February 27, 2023 by CreweCold

[That ECM]

Still on track for the gates to open.

[Weather-history]

 

 

[andymusic]

OOOH ERRRR MRS! LOL

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Still on track for the gates to open.

Yeah I think this point is FI, and it certainly looks promising to here. Beyond T168 to be decided, but the chances of some snowy clashes as the Atlantic try’s its hand looks quite possible - it seems like this rarely happens nowadays so hopefully it does and the cold wins the fight. 

Edited February 27, 2023 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah I think this point is FI, and it certainly looks promising to here. Beyond T168 to be decided, but the chances of some snowy clashes as the Atlantic try’s its hand looks quite possible - it seems like this rarely happens nowadays so hopefully it does and the cold wins the fight. 

Days 9/10 did look very cold and snowy if I read this right..hopefully a more cleaner evolution to this in future runs

[Mike Poole]

HUGE run from the ECM this morning!  T240:

Copious snow on that, extremely fine margins to get to this point though.

Good UKMO as well.  Need the others to come on board this afternoon or tomorrow morning re the establishment of the Greenland high earlier in the run.

Edited February 27, 2023 by Mike Poole

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

HUGE run from the ECM this morning!  T240:

Copious snow on that, extremely fine margins to get to this point though.

Good UKMO as well.  Need the others to come on board this afternoon or tomorrow morning re the establishment of the Greenland high earlier in the run.

I totally agree mike... the period between 120-168 are not as good as yesterday on most models I think.the end period on the ECM is decent but the angle of attack from the northeast could still be improved.

[Drifter]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

HUGE run from the ECM this morning!  T240:

Copious snow on that, extremely fine margins to get to this point though.

Good UKMO as well.  Need the others to come on board this afternoon or tomorrow morning re the establishment of the Greenland high earlier in the run.

Not seeing too much longevity on that day ten chart though.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I totally agree mike... the period between 120-168 are not as good as yesterday on most models I think.the end period on the ECM is decent but the angle of attack from the northeast could still be improved.

Not as good?

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not as good?

The lobe to the northeast doesn't quite get close enough in my opinion..I'm talking the period between 120-168..this reflects in the 850's

[Lukesluckybunch]

10 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I totally agree mike... the period between 120-168 are not as good as yesterday on most models I think.the end period on the ECM is decent but the angle of attack from the northeast could still be improved.

 

10 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Not seeing too much longevity on that day ten chart though.

Not really but the good news is 216 was even better looking

[northwestsnow]

34 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Everything is too marginal..the only decent output is from the UKMO it seems..even the ECM the real cold air from the East never reaches us

LOL.

I don't know where to even begin with this post

[That ECM]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

The lobe to the northeast doesn't quite get close enough in my opinion..I'm talking the period between 120-168..this reflects in the 850's

I would suggest looking nw and is the high stronger? 850’s and small details will sort themselves out. Need the nhp in place to allow us to get to good small detail.

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I would suggest looking nw and is the high stronger? 850’s and small details will sort themselves out. Need the nhp in place to allow us to get to good small detail.

The block is fairly decent up until 192 before the trough pushes it westward away from greenland.

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL.

I don't know where to even begin with this post

Look at the 850's up until 216..those hoping for snow until that time may well be disappointed..also can we really trust decent charts 9/10 days away? I'm just saying how it is to me keeping my feet on the ground

Edited February 27, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[That ECM]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

The block is fairly decent up until 192 before the trough pushes it westward away from greenland.

Hang on we were talking about T120-T168. I’m happy and looking forward to 12z’s. Have a great day.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

The block is fairly decent up until 192 before the trough pushes it westward away from greenland.

Day 9

You previously said the real cold air doesn't reach us..

What do you class as real cold air exactly ?

[MJB]

Excellent morning  and when you consider the crazy posts in here yesterday about the chances of cold were never really on and it was 50/50 at best .

It's a funny old game 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Excellent morning  and when you consider the crazy posts in here yesterday about the chances of cold were never really on and it was 50/50 at best .

It's a funny old game 

I'm still grumpy these charts arent a month ago

[Nick2373]

00Z shows a cooler period from the 27th to the 2nd March then a warm up to just above, then looking at this mornings output yes its only one run something colder rom 6th March onwards to the 8th. going off what's showing a warm up suggestive of the Atlantic undercutting probably dragging South West winds with it, next few days cloudy nothingness if that's your cup of tea

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 9

You previously said the real cold air doesn't reach us..

What do you class as real cold air exactly ?

Ok until this point where is the cold air?also will -7/8 uppers do the trick nw?

[That ECM]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok until this point where is the cold air?also will -7/8 uppers do the trick nw?

On its way.

[snowray]

I'm happy with the ECM, anyone got the PPN charts for T240, looks to me like there could be a fair bit of snow around.

[Penicuikblizzard]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

Ok until this point where is the cold air?also will -7/8 uppers do the trick nw?

The -9 to -11 uppers in Scotland will certainly do the trick  

[EML Network]

so hard not to look at the ECM without wanting it to shunt the atlantic influence a 100 miles further south, but thats coming from a locational point of view and asking for perfection.

If it comes off as modelled though many places could look to enjoy a good few days of snow as the cold has arrived before the Atlantic influence does.

It would be hard to find a better chart than the one above (if only it was early Jan !!)

GFS Mean at 192 feels like a chart weve been looking at for an eternity.

All roads now seem to be pointing at a cold spell of some description and I was happy to see more of the GFS members dipping into -10 territory than has been the case over the weekends runs.

Any Easterly signal for wel beyond FI in my eyes seems to have vanished somewhat now though.

Most of that writing on the wall has gone, bur for those such as me in the South especially given ECM evolution the margins are far too close to be optomistic is the ECM is on the money especially.

All in all we have got to be feeling more confident this morning that in a mere 7 days time some of us could be watching bit white fluffy flakes falling out of the sky than we were a few days ago.

BUT the crux time (120-144) still to be decided and it could still.easily all go wrong.