Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

[seabreeze86]

GFS has improvements early then derails quickly but again only a small change you stop that happening well within the envelope 

[nick sussex]

After an early morning dip in fortunes for coldies  the rollercoaster continues with some improvements in both the GFS and ICON 06 hrs runs.

So we’ll take that and move onto tonight’s drama ! 

Edited February 27, 2023 by nick sussex

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

GFS has improvements early then derails quickly but again only a small change you stop that happening well within the envelope 

The atlantic is a mess on this chart - all cut up, the low pressure spawning about 4 little lows of its own and taking up whole of n atlantic -  its a very suspect model, onto the next GFS 12z chart.

Edited February 27, 2023 by damianslaw

[mushymanrob]

27 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I have been wary of these charts when they are issued on Saturday and Sunday since I learned from another member that the automated weekend blend is always the same blend of the GFS and GEM ensemble means and doesn't include the EPS (which is invariably chosen as a significant component of the blend by the human forecaster on weekdays)... what are your thoughts on this?

In theory your concerns are sound. But ive not noticed any particular drop in quality/accuracy. But we will know better later this evening IF the NOAA have shifted... they might weaken the Western ridge.

However..... the latest EPS just rolled out suggests a return to "normal" conditions for mid March , not overly mild, unsettled Westerlies. no northern blocking here, nothing overly cold

 

Edited February 27, 2023 by mushymanrob

[seabreeze86]

So here is big 4 for Monday at 1am . Clearly the UKMO is the pick of the bunch 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

In theory your concerns are sound. But ive not noticed any particular drop in quality/accuracy. But we will know better later this evening IF the NOAA have shifted... they might weaken the Western ridge.

However..... the latest EPS just rolled out suggests a return to "normal" conditions for mid March , not overly mild, unsettled Westerlies. no northern blocking here, nothing overly cold

 

This is a kick in the teeth for sure and indicates that any Northerly or North Easterly will be very short lived, maybe only 2 or 3 days.

On the positive side, there might be some welcome rain.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The block is fairly decent up until 192 before the trough pushes it westward away from greenland.

Look at the 850's up until 216..those hoping for snow until that time may well be disappointed..also can we really trust decent charts 9/10 days away? I'm just saying how it is to me keeping my feet on the ground

 

Solid UKMO and ECM could bring fab snowfall events.. things are finally getting tasty this oh so long Winter! It perhaps goes out in a whimper and fires back up like a gladiator.

[Rain All Night]

14 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

However..... the latest EPS just rolled out suggests a return to "normal" conditions for mid March , not overly mild, unsettled Westerlies. no northern blocking here, nothing overly cold

Crikey, ouch! Days 11-15...

Rain starting to appear on the EPS from the southwest in week 2...

We will see days 16-46 of the same EPS run tonight... it will be interesting to see whether all the northern blocking we saw for the weeks ahead on Thursday has vanished!

Edited February 27, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Lukesluckybunch]

Disappointing gfs 6z..temps nothing special if it proves right the lowest 2m temps I am seeing is perhaps 5/6c.the transition to something cold or very cold is far from certain and rather messy..I wish people would stop trying to sugar coat things..let's  get it right to have widespread snow and cold the output needs to be a lot better then what is currently showing,this currently as it stands is looking something a bit colder for 2/3 days

Edited February 27, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[Flub136]

All kicking off upstairs again!

[seabreeze86]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Disappointing gfs 6z..temps nothing special if it proves right the lowest 2m temps I am seeing is perhaps 5/6c.the transition to something cold or very cold is far from certain and rather messy..I wish people would stop trying to sugar coat things..let's  get it right to have widespread snow and cold the output needs to be a lot better then what is currently showing,this currently as it stands is looking something a bit colder for 2/3 days

Luke do you really think the GFS 6z will be correct. No model will be correct at 7+ days it’s impossible. It’s about looking for trends and the 6z improved early in the run in the semi reliable we take that and move on to the next runs 

[nick sussex]

You can see the reason for a more mobile pattern if of course the GEFS is correct .

These forecasts have been quite volatile so we’ll see if this shows up in future runs .

Edited February 27, 2023 by nick sussex

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Disappointing gfs 6z..temps nothing special if it proves right the lowest 2m temps I am seeing is perhaps 5/6c.the transition to something cold or very cold is far from certain and rather messy..I wish people would stop trying to sugar cost things..let's  get it right to have widespread now and cold the output needs to be a lot better then what is currently showing

It was always about where the trough dropped, and all models are now indicating that the initial drop will be too far east:

Plenty of frigid cold missing the UK.

ECM op seems to perform a minor miracle late in the run, but looking at the ens, is the best-case scenario, and as usual, their D9-10 charts are best treated with extreme caution:

So for the UK, the pattern needs to shift 200 miles west for anything worthwhile. Though even to the east the GFS sees the pattern collapse back to westerlies very quickly. By D14 back to a NH tPV not looking like any SSW interference:

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Luke do you really think the GFS 6z will be correct. No model will be correct at 7+ days it’s impossible. It’s about looking for trends and the 6z improved early in the run in the semi reliable we take that and move on to the next runs 

I'm just commenting on what I am seeing..if you see it differently then that's fine,it's all about opinions

[MJB]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Disappointing gfs 6z..temps nothing special if it proves right the lowest 2m temps I am seeing is perhaps 5/6c.the transition to something cold or very cold is far from certain and rather messy..I wish people would stop trying to sugar coat things..let's  get it right to have widespread snow and cold the output needs to be a lot better then what is currently showing,this currently as it stands is looking something a bit colder for 2/3 days

I also wish people would stop having knee jerk reactions to one OP run ..............gosh! isn't it rather annoying

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

It was always about where the trough dropped, and all models are now indicating that the initial drop will be too far east:

Plenty of frigid cold missing the UK.

ECM op seems to perform a minor miracle late in the run, but looking at the ens, is the best-case scenario, and as usual, their D9-10 charts are best treated with extreme caution:

So for the UK, the pattern needs to shift 200 miles west for anything worthwhile. Though even to the east the GFS sees the pattern collapse back to westerlies very quickly. By D14 back to a NH tPV not looking like any SSW interference:

Exactly my point IDO missing the UK again...if people want to get excited about -6/8 uppers that's fine

[Met4Cast]

For as long as the GFS has existed it has defaulted to the norm, i.e westerlies in the extended when it loses any real signal, and for as long as the GFS has been doing that, there have been people being far too over-reactionary to every single det run as if THIS is the one that'll be right, this one single run has finally nailed the pattern and cold is now dead in the water. 

The GFS det is useless. Utterly, utterly useless since the update, especially beyond 7 days. 

[EML Network]

7 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Congratulations young man you have won the award for having what we call..split personality weather disorder. The model is gr8 in 1 frame then poor by the 2nd frame and gr8 again at frame 3. Your getting excited in one post,but feet firmly on the ground and it can all go wrong in the next one.

Your entertainment value is unrivalled

Solid UKMO and ECM could bring fab snowfall events.. things are finally getting tasty this oh so long Winter! It perhaps goes out in a whimper and fires back up like a gladiator.

Been suffering from that myself for 15 years...whats the cure ?

meanwhile JMA making a dogs dinner out of the Atlantic. god only knows where it would go from here...probably a mild SW'erly

[Ali1977]

The GFS Control looks more wintery than the op , slidergate esk!! A mixed bag with the ENS at T180 though. On to the 12z’s to see what they can drum up - remember they are still head scratching with the SSW!! 

Edited February 27, 2023 by Ali1977

[NewEra21]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Exactly my point IDO missing the UK again...if people want to get excited about -6/8 uppers that's fine

This has been my point for days now, despite the odd op run we're just not seeing the depth of cold to make anything worthwhile.

We've had -8 uppers in the SE this weekend just gone, which resulted in 8c.

I'd love for this potential cold spell to happen, but personally I'm just not seeing the depth of cold that we'll need in March.

A few slushy deposits at best from current output.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Exactly my point IDO missing the UK again...if people want to get excited about -6/8 uppers that's fine

Can you see my point Luke..opinions are fine. An hour ago you were excited..now your saying you can't see what people have got to be excited about! Can you see how this would be misleading too some of the less experienced folks.

You can over react to each and every frame of every model run to the point it will drive you round the bend! It's best to let the bigger picture emerge with the complete runs and more importantly ensembles.

[Derecho]

The 06z doesn't build up a strong enough block to make things interesting next week. However the detail in the Greenland high is academic at this stage, the most important thing is that early on the profile is a lot better.

Long range output may be hinting at a return of the Atlantic but all of this detail is subject to huge changes if the short term pattern completely changes. So I wouldn't focus on that at this early point.

[Ali1977]

The control at 192 is quite similar to the ECM at 192, but also colder. Maybe this is where we are heading, and then hope the block holds as the SSW does it’s thing creating lots of slider style snow events !! 

A long way off but potential a very snowy period next week. 

Edited February 27, 2023 by Ali1977

[MJB]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The GFS Control looks more wintery than the op , slidergate esk!! A mixed bag with the ENS at T180 though. On to the 12z’s to see what they can drum up - remember they are still head scratching with the SSW!! 

Control is rather Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[MATTWOLVES 3]

19 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Don't like seeing pack mentality on here if you dont like what someone else posts move on. no need to gang up on one member. !

There is nobody ganging up on a particular member mate. If your following a particular poster and one post they are saying things look good,then the next post they're saying things look bad,I'm sure you can understand how some would get very confused!

I happen to find Lukes analysis very refreshing..he does jump the gun a little but he offers some good insight,and tbh he reminds me of a certain Shaky character. So if he is being picked on I most certainly condemn it.

Edited February 27, 2023 by MATT TATTOO