Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[KTtom]

18 minutes ago, Gowon said:

I've never understood that mentality - It's a vital ingredient for life to exist.

how do you know that for sure, though

I dont, just like those who said this spell would be 'epic' didnt...the chances of a more severe cold spell later in March are slim for the obvious reasons.

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I dont, just like those who said this spell would be 'epic' didnt...the chances of a more severe cold spell later in March are slim for the obvious reasons.

[KTtom]

17 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

I honestly don't get the current excitement for this upcoming cold spell, as in my view it's just downgrading with each run for next week.

Initially we were looking at a true northerly, clearing the south coast and reaching well into France with convention galore by Tuesday/Wednesday. Now the northerly barely reaches the south coast before being pushed back north by the milder Atlantic.

Hills in North and Scotland will obviously do fine, feel like a lot of others are going to be very disappointed.

 

Agree, as of my original post...it doesnt look now like anything abnormal for early March..may swing back tho, but the trend is in the opposite direction.

[Northern Sky]

It's not looking great for central Northern England. The showers on Tuesday don't look to be pushing in land and the frontal snow is too far south. Absolutely no snow here at all this Winter. 

[BremX]

5 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

It's not looking great for central Northern England. The showers on Tuesday don't look to be pushing in land and the frontal snow is too far south. Absolutely no snow here at all this Winter. 

I know the feeling. I only tend to see snow here if its coming from the easy, the models keep hinting at some here but each run pushes it back. 

I'd like to think that once the cold air is in, any rain its giving may fall as snow, or a shortwave appears and dumps some, but still clutching at straws.

[Snowboy111]

Horrible bust for us in the channel islands. Northerly’s are just crap. Give me a Scandi high any day of the week. 

[NewEra21]

31 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Agree, as of my original post...it doesnt look now like anything abnormal for early March..may swing back tho, but the trend is in the opposite direction.

100%

This is for London, the mean next week barely drops to -5 now. Where just a day or so ago we were looking closer to -10

I know some will say 850 temps aren't everything, and fair enough because they aren't. But those ensembles are a huge step in the wrong direction, the real cold just never really gets south now.

Edited March 4, 2023 by NewEra21

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

It's not looking great for central Northern England. The showers on Tuesday don't look to be pushing in land and the frontal snow is too far south. Absolutely no snow here at all this Winter. 

Yes, nothing much in the offering here, even I was surprised at how the overnight ensembles have trended milder and wetter this week and that's after I never brought into this week being much to shout about.  Some places will see snow, but nothing to the extent that's been hyped about for weeks.

[Weather-history]

We are the time of the year where inland convection can be generated in a northerly flow, the issue is the low pressures trying to push in and cut off the northerly flow quickly.

 

[Summer8906]

20 hours ago, MP-R said:

Indeed. Probably due to the fact that cold marches generally depend on a southerly jet which results in fine margins between cold/snow but also a lot of rain. At least in winter, most synoptics deliver cool or cold weather. Next week doesn’t even look as cold as the mid latitude high we had in the first week of Feb!

2016, 2006 and 2001 also ended up dull and wet as well as chilly in addition to yours listed above.

2001 certainly, that's another example of a cold wet March with a southerly jet causing an alternation between cold/dry and average/wet. Further back IIRC 1985 and 1987 had similarities, both colder and wetter than average if I remember right, though both also featured polar N or NW outbreaks so were sunnier than months like 2001 and 2018.

2006 and 2016 seemed to be a different type (at least here), both rare examples of cold dry Marches which didn't feature extensive cyclonic spells. In 2006, IIRC, it was dry or even very dry, and cool, until about the 23rd then turned wet and very mild, a somewhat unusual combination for spring.  2016 was also largely cold and dry, turning wet again around the 23rd then it was wet with around average temps until almost the end of the month, and including one of the worst Easters of the past 40 years.

I would not be complaining too much if this month turned out to be similar to those two.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

The rain will return; it always does, but I'd be surprised to see a wet summer. The last one of those I remember was at least a decade ago now. Unless I'm completely forgetting a wet summer in the last few years, they seem to be getting drier and more blocked, more often. 

For the south of England, I would beg to disagree.

Summer 2021 was, after June 15th, mostly cloudy, damp and cool aside from one week of hot just after mid-July.

Summer 2020 was generally cloudy and damp, aside from short but intense hot spells. July was dry, but cool; the other two months were wetter than average.

Summer 2019 featured an OK July (warm but rather cloudy, with a short intense heatwave) but June and August were mostly cloudy and changeable, particularly June.

2018 was, like 2022, one of the exceptions.

Summer 2017 was warm but rather cloudy in the first half, then wet second half.

2014 and 2016 had long dry spells but each had one wet and miserable month. Also, aside from August, summer 2016 was cloudy. 2014 however did manage two decent summery months in June and July.

Summer 2015 was mostly unsettled after mid-July, and mostly cloudy.

Contrast that to the 1989-2006 period, when fine summers really were frequent. The only summers I'd rate as good after 2006 are 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

The model runs continue to offer contrasts.

GFS 06Z is pretty horrible (for some) : "2018 without the snow". Deep but often slack lows producing a lot of damp, dull stagnant weather I suspect, though it looks windy for a time next weekend.

GFS 00Z is much better for both cold and spring-like warmth, cutting the dull and wet to two or three days and bringing a northerly back around the 13th. Then, by contrast, a warm southerly, with low pressure far enough to the west not to be a nuisance, by the following weekend producing some genuine spring weather. A decent mix of weather and not dull and wet for long. One to bank, perhaps.

All that said, I wouldn't mind too much a combination of zonality and not-overly-low pressure. Fast moving systems separated by genuine ridges of high pressure, and I wouldn't be moaning too much. A bit of mobility, and a push northwards from that Iberian high, would ironically improve that GFS 00Z.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

'We don't need the rain' is typically a phrase I associate with people who just don't like it and may be ignorant of or just not care about the potentially serious water shortages we could end up with. Yes, there was a lot of rain in the Autumn and the start of January, but we're now into 7 weeks of predominantly very dry weather, which has come too soon after last year's drought.

As I said above, in my view the issue is the shocking mismanagement and/or greed by the water companies nowadays. We encountered two complete cuts of water supply this past winter. Not due to the amount of rainfall (one came just before Christmas, following months of wet weather) but due to poorly-maintained infrastructure, from a company making large profits.

How do other countries in the Western world manage? The majority of Western countries get less in the way of relentless, persistent, soaking rain than we do (Ireland, Iceland and Norway are the only ones AFAIK which get more in the way of persistent ocean-driven rain), due to either lower latitude or a more continental location, or both. Perhaps the other countries just spend more money on their water distribution systems.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

47 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

 

2006 and 2016 seemed to be a different type (at least here), both rare examples of cold dry Marches which didn't feature extensive cyclonic spells. In 2006, IIRC, it was dry or even very dry, and cool, until about the 23rd then turned wet and very mild, a somewhat unusual combination for spring.  2016 was also largely cold and dry, turning wet again around the 23rd then it was wet with around average temps until almost the end of the month, and including one of the worst Easters of the past 40 years.

I would not be complaining too much if this month turned out to be similar to those two.

Don't forget the earlier wet spells too. In 2006, the 07th-12th was one (culminating in the battleground snowfall), and in 2016, the 01st-10th. Both months were kinda like a sandwich, with a 10-14 day drier spell in the middle.

 

In 2016, while I was still working in city planning, I was sent to a field where a housing development had been proposed, on the morning of the 09th, and the entire field was under water from over an inch of rain the night before.

 

 

The memory often plays tricks. In both months, there was then a rather trying grey and chilly period of weather before the return of more wetness. Both, however, were wet months. I can't actually think of many cold AND dry Marches in my lifetime. 2010 was on its way to one but the second half was milder and wetter. So, maybe, 1996?

[Summer8906]

7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Don't forget the earlier wet spells too. In 2006, the 07th-12th was one (culminating in the battleground snowfall), and in 2016, the 01st-10th. Both months were kinda like a sandwich, with a 10-14 day drier spell in the middle.

 

In 2016, while I was still working in city planning, I was sent to a field where a housing development had been proposed, on the morning of the 09th, and the entire field was under water from over an inch of rain the night before.

 

 

The memory often plays tricks. In both months, there was then a rather trying grey and chilly period of weather before the return of more wetness. Both, however, were wet months. I can't actually think of many cold AND dry Marches in my lifetime. 2010 was on its way to one but the second half was milder and wetter. So, maybe, 1996?

I have to admit that I'd completely forgotten about any wet weather early in the month in 2006 or 2016. I do remember March 2006 starting with a few days of cold and bright with wintry showers, and then it had turned fine again by the 12th (I was blissfully unaware of the battleground snowfall until later) so there must have been a short wet spell which I've completely forgotten. It's likely it coincided with the working week, which meant it has disappeared from my mind.

In 2016 again I've completely forgotten that wet spell above. I do remember the initial weekend (5th/6th) being cold, with wintry showers on the Sat and just cold and cloudy on the Sun, so obviously in my mind I assumed it had just stayed that way until the 23rd. The 12th/13th weekend was fine and cold so again, another example of a forgotten midweek short wet spell, I guess.

Where I was, it was quite sunny in the dry mid-month period in both years: neither had the prolonged depressing gloom that typified 2013, for example.

1996 wasn't so dry if I remember right, it seemed to be a battleground between cold/dry and mild/wet though, so perhaps similar to some others.

I do seem to recall some examples of cold dry Marches in the post-war period before 1980 in the MWR, perhaps 1975 was one? But yes, struggling to find any really good examples.

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by Summer8906

[alexisj9]

5 hours ago, NewEra21 said:

100%

This is for London, the mean next week barely drops to -5 now. Where just a day or so ago we were looking closer to -10

I know some will say 850 temps aren't everything, and fair enough because they aren't. But those ensembles are a huge step in the wrong direction, the real cold just never really gets south now.

The mean is skewed by warm members, which as the mean stays below 0, are in the minority. That will probably correct downwards closer to the time.

[SunSean]

More slate grey nothingness for the next couple of weeks at least  Has this country morphed into the Faroe Islands? 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

7 hours ago, Northern Sky said:

It's not looking great for central Northern England. The showers on Tuesday don't look to be pushing in land and the frontal snow is too far south. Absolutely no snow here at all this Winter. 

Now you know how Southern Central feel!

[Gowon]

Just want some rain and some warmth please - I've had enough of this crap!

[Robbie Coldrain]

Things nearly always get downgraded the closer we get to them. Not sure why people continually fall for it. The fact is it takes all the stars to align to get a decent cold spelling in January these days.  

[weather_it_will]

It's about 4°C here in south Midlands, dry and grey.....

Perfect weather for mowing the lawn, as it has been mostly dry for such a long time, and the ground is firm enough for a lawn mower.

Got it done before the wet weather arrives, as the grass will be longer and more hard work to cut by then.

Not expecting any lasting snowfall event. 

Hopefully we have a long hot spring and summer on the way.

 

 

 

 

[Arctic Hare]

I mean, it's "usable weather" in that you can indeed mow the lawn, you can travel without problems, etc. But here in Worcs at least, the weather currently is in more than one sense so, so dull. I really have no interest at all in a spell of 4-7 degrees with grey skies and a nagging wind, which is what we've had for the last couple of days here and look set to have for a little while now. Thursday was nice and bright, but that's it. Bring on April showers with sunny intervals between. I'll whinge when I'm caught out in the rain of course, but it'll be far more interesting than the current boredom.

Edit: at least a couple of thin coverings in December mean I didn't go an entire snowless meteorological winter. So that's something, I guess.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Arctic Hare

[ChannelThunder]

Uh-oh, a few toys being thrown from the pram in the other thread now that GFS is shifting lows further south midweek. I suspect ECM will show the opposite and be heralded as the hero in about 45 minutes! 

GEM has 'nailed it'. AKA it shows what certain people want.

[RJBingham]

Well good luck folks, the epic cold spell is just around the corner, hope no one gets snowed in for too long.

[ChannelThunder]

47 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Uh-oh, a few toys being thrown from the pram in the other thread now that GFS is shifting lows further south midweek. I suspect ECM will show the opposite and be heralded as the hero in about 45 minutes! 

GEM has 'nailed it'. AKA it shows what certain people want.

Not quite how it panned out.

We're fully into a mild and unsettled southwesterly come Friday on the 12z ECM!