Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[TwisterGirl81]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Could be some date temperature records on Thursday

God, I hope so, GFS going in a different direction though 🫤 I’m so ready for some warmth now 

[johncam]

ECM blowing the cold away very quickly , turning very mild , mabye get a frost out of it 

 

 

 

 

 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Could be some date temperature records on Thursday

That chart looks absolutely beautiful. Ahhh..... spring is in the air !

[summer blizzard]

Although i was ruined for other March's by 2012 i am looking forward to the winter chill personally. GFS is currently suggesting snow. 

[simshady]

I too am personally looking forward to the chilly weather next  week then roll on next winter!

[Polaris]

Not expecting anything substantial here in Bedfordshire next week in terms of snowfall. Maybe a few wet flakes if moisture is present with cold uppers. 
 

ECM had the MAD thread praising last night because it showed cold, but now it’s showing a bog standard chill spell soon erased to the Atlantic it’s now wrong apparently

[Bald Eagle]

Model watching goes like this. If it suits your narrative its great. If it doesn't its not great. People forget they are based on algorithms and its all ifs, buts and maybes. One solution will always be correct out of hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of different scenarios. You might as well put your mortgage on 8 red instead of picking a correct run. What will be, will be, regardless of a computer. It's more fun watching the Teddy throwing competition.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still go with my guess, cold next week with frost and mostly dry, Spring then arriving around 11th-12th, 16 degrees and mostly wet rest of march

[WelshSnow]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I noticed the Iberian ridge looking prominent a day or two back and noted the potential implications as we move towards summer. It seems to be becoming more of a feature year after year.

Let’s hope not, really hoping for a cool and wet summer this year! 

[seaside boy]

1 minute ago, WelshSnow said:

Let’s hope not, really hoping for a cool and wet summer this year! 

No..I am an out door bowler and last year was the best I can remember.

I have also just noticed, the sea temperature has gone up two degrees now recording 8c.

around the South North Sea and  southern coast.

 

[Buzz]

Over in the MAD thread, seemingly the GFS is the belle of the ball for today as it's showing what the cold and snow lovers want to see, on the other hand the ECM has been kicked into the gutter. I hope those folks aren't so easily swayed when voting in elections.

[KTtom]

Preparation for the Olympic Straw Grabbing event have started in earnest!

[Summer Sun]

Level 3 cold weather alert issued for northern England from 00:01 on Monday to 23:59 Thursday

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 08:47 on Fri 3 Mar 2023

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0001 on Monday 06 Mar and 2359 on Thursday 09 Mar in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

There is an increased confidence that a period of very cold weather will develop across the country from early next week, as a north or northeasterly airflow becomes established across the UK. The highest confidence is for northern parts where cold weather is expected to develop from early on Monday, progressing southwards through the day. Below average temperatures are expected throughout, bringing a widespread frost and wintry showers, these frequent along exposed windward coasts along with a risk of ice hazards. There is also a risk of more prolonged snow, perhaps due to rain pushing into the west from around midweek, although this is currently considered to be low confidence. This alert is likely to be updated and perhaps extended next week.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

[Summer Sun]

Snow and Ice warning issue for Monday and Tuesday for parts of Scotland and northern England

Snow showers are likely to cause some disruption to travel with a small chance of more widespread disruption for some.

What to expect

• There is a small chance of travel delays on roads with some stranded vehicles and passengers, along with delayed or cancelled rail and air travel
• There is a slight chance that some rural communities could become cut off
• A small chance of injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces
• There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected

A band of rain, sleet and snow is expected to move south during Monday followed by frequent snow and hail showers. Whilst the highest accumulations of 5-10 cm are most likely over northern Scotland, there is a small chance of more organised and persistent spells of snow developing elsewhere in this area, and could bring 2 to 5 cm even at lower levels. Into Monday night, showers are expected to continue, and ice is likely to form on untreated surfaces where snow has melted by day.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-03-06&id=68a2f8a1-8911-4289-ad8c-c08b7140dbca&details

 

[Downburst]

One thing on the MAD thread I'm no fan of and is a real turn off and too late after you've read it is "this model isn't covering itself in glory" posts when it shows what someone doesn't like. I mean it's not match of the day etc, something about the tone of the thread once you see these phrase is a turn off and I can never take that person seriously again. It's interesting seeing the neediness inherent in some of these posters.  Mind you worse still is for me is  variations of analysis of a run where the run is announced as "wrong" and then "what we want to see" is....

One thing for sure though is next two weeks or so is looking more winter than spring. End of the ECM (mind you remember the whole structure of this organization and all it's scientists are in mourning this morning and in team meetings as "it hasn't covered itself in glory" but notwithstanding that, it has a wintry look to it and although it won't be like this exactly, it shows a good flavour of the oddness of the potential weather given the SSW. Personally hoping back end of the month delivers some good spring weather.

 

Last triple dip La Nina followed by El Nino, well that was 2002 (wet Summer) and 1976 (Hot), so here's hoping this year or next repeats 1976

 

 

[knocker]

13 hours ago, Buzz said:

Over in the MAD thread, seemingly the GFS is the belle of the ball for today as it's showing what the cold and snow lovers want to see, on the other hand the ECM has been kicked into the gutter. I hope those folks aren't so easily swayed when voting in elections.

What is worse, imho, are comments along the lines that the ecm does not handle NH patterns being indicated at the moment very well, as a precusor to binning the latest run. Now unless the posters can supply  links to scientific evidence supporting the statement, or have done there own in depth research, then comments like this are wrong and will totally mislead punters who are relatively inexperienced in getting to grips with the output. Particularly in the current situation which, to say the least, is quite complex. Put simply they should not be ,made

[LRD]

59 minutes ago, Downburst said:

One thing on the MAD thread I'm no fan of and is a real turn off and too late after you've read it is "this model isn't covering itself in glory" posts when it shows what someone doesn't like. I mean it's not match of the day etc, something about the tone of the thread once you see these phrase is a turn off and I can never take that person seriously again. It's interesting seeing the neediness inherent in some of these posters.  Mind you worse still is for me is  variations of analysis of a run where the run is announced as "wrong" and then "what we want to see" is....

One thing for sure though is next two weeks or so is looking more winter than spring. End of the ECM (mind you remember the whole structure of this organization and all it's scientists are in mourning this morning and in team meetings as "it hasn't covered itself in glory" but notwithstanding that, it has a wintry look to it and although it won't be like this exactly, it shows a good flavour of the oddness of the potential weather given the SSW. Personally hoping back end of the month delivers some good spring weather.

 

Last triple dip La Nina followed by El Nino, well that was 2002 (wet Summer) and 1976 (Hot), so here's hoping this year or next repeats 1976

 

 

Absolutely spot on

ECM was a coldies dream the other day and people were praising it to the hilt. Now it's not showing winter-geddon it's "wrong" and "not covering itself in glory". Like the UKMO the other day too. Exactly the same scenario

Now the GFS precipitation charts are being wheeled out as something to nail cold colours to the mast too. I daren't tell them it's a very wet run compared to the pack

GFS snow charts often promise this:

When the reality is usually:

However, I'm travelling on Friday and you can bet your bottom dollar it'll be the one time in a thousand that those charts are accurate

[LRD]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

What is worse, imho, are comments along the lines that the ecm does not handle NH patterns being indicated at the moment very well, as a precusor to binning the latest run. Now unless the posters can supply  links to scientific evidence supporting the statement, or have done there own in depth research, then comments like this are wrong and will totally mislead punters who are relatively inexperienced in getting to grips with the output. Particularly in the current situation which, to say the least, is quite complex. Put simply they should not be ,made

And when that sort of comment is made mid-run... and then the run ends up taking a cold turn anyway, it's "Ah, the ECM has pulled it out of the bag" or some such cliche

Serious lack of self-awareness in that thread. I used to be part of it but have learned the lessons over the last 2 or 3 years and realised the error of my ways

[Methuselah]

From 'red-faced with embarrassment' to 'smelling the coffee', in an instant? 

[LRD]

Met Office website still showing 5s and 6s (Celsius) for Sheffield (I'm off there next weekend) and for my nearest town, Bedford, for midweek next week with some chilly nights. Not exactly Baltic conditions but I guess they will be revised downwards over the weekend. Unfortunately

[KTtom]

42 minutes ago, LRD said:

Met Office website still showing 5s and 6s (Celsius) for Sheffield (I'm off there next weekend) and for my nearest town, Bedford, for midweek next week with some chilly nights. Not exactly Baltic conditions but I guess they will be revised downwards over the weekend. Unfortunately

West Wales is up to 9c by Thursday! Not sure which model they use or whether its a blend.  This could be the mildest cold spell in history! 

[Snowyowl9]

March 2006 was a winter month..

Deceiving mild blip..

Dec

 

[Summer8906]

18 hours ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

That chart looks absolutely beautiful. Ahhh..... spring is in the air !

The problem for me though is that it's just too cyclonic. Lowish pressure and southwesterlies - I can't see it will feel even remotely spring like. Humid, cloudy and rather drizzly, with unremarkable temps due to cloud cover. Autumnal, yes.

Now show me a chart with the Azores high building in across the UK and I'll start getting excited.

Edited March 3, 2023 by Summer8906

[NEVES SCREAMER]

1 minute ago, Summer8906 said:

It's just too cyclonic. Lowish pressure and southwesterlies - I can't see it will feel even remotely spring like. Autumnal, yes.

Now show me a chart with the Azores high building in across the UK and I'll start getting excited.

I'll correct myself. It looks 'comparatively ' more beautiful compared to screaming NE winds, chilly and persistent cloud /showers like early this week. Not perfect. But an improvement !

[Summer8906]

3 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

I'll correct myself. It looks 'comparatively ' more beautiful compared to screaming NE winds, chilly and persistent cloud /showers like early this week. Not perfect. But an improvement !

I think for me I'll take what we had earlier this week. Only Tuesday afternoon was slightly dismal, with heavy cloud and one or two brief showers. Other than that it's been comparatively good for weeks down here, the last really bad weather being around January 12th.

I don't mind a switch to something somewhat more changeable (so I'm not complaining about the early/middle part of next week), but please, any wind direction other than southwesterly!

Edited March 3, 2023 by Summer8906