Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[SunSean]

We also reached 35 degrees for 2 days in a row in September 1906. You have to think, if you could reach 35 in September over 100 years ago then it must have been possible, with the right set-up, to get close to 40 in July that same year or further back even. It takes so much to get all the right synoptics.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Even in this warming climate, everything has to fit perfectly into place for 40 Celsius to be reached in the UK as is what happened last July. That 40 Celsius day we had was a truly exceptional event and I personally can't see it becoming commonplace for a while yet. On the other hand, sudden heat spikes in an otherwise benign summer do seem to be the thing with our summers nowadays. During the summers of my childhood, whenever a heatwave was approaching, the days leading up to it would gradually get warmer until we get to the peak day before cooling down again.

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

In my humble opinion, I don’t see 40c being breached again for many years to come. Easily a 1 in 100 or more year event. Every piece of the puzzle literally fell in the right place at exactly the right time (mid July). A very deep plume out of Morocco, over a baking hot Spain and France with very dry soil, highest uppers combining with peak daytime heating, and no flash cloudcover. What was even more exceptional is how far North the temperature record was broken. Coningsby of all places! 
I can’t foresee another event on that level for many years to come. 

[KTtom]

Looking through the models this morning, plenty of wet weather into next week which will benefit some, especially the south west which, according to an article on the News last night is still officially in drought.

The other noticeable feature as we head into the second half if the dominance of south westerlies, no sign of a return to anything cold. I guess its very much where you live as to how favourable the SSW was to you, but for most, a few frosty days and some wet snow would sum it up, not quite what most were forecasting / hoping for. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by KTtom

[Robin2012]

My my you don’t need to look under the bridge this morning on here or the model thread

How dare people ever speak about what is FORECAST or what COULD happen 

to me

to you

Zzzzzzzzz

[ANYWEATHER]

3 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

In my humble opinion, I don’t see 40c being breached again for many years to come. Easily a 1 in 100 or more year event. Every piece of the puzzle literally fell in the right place at exactly the right time (mid July). A very deep plume out of Morocco, over a baking hot Spain and France with very dry soil, highest uppers combining with peak daytime heating, and no flash cloudcover. What was even more exceptional is how far North the temperature record was broken. Coningsby of all places! 
I can’t foresee another event on that level for many years to come. 

IMHO there's just as much chance of minus 30c being breached in the uk, I'm sure it has before but without the so called official observations sites....

[SunSean]

Over the halfway mark for March and we are under 27 hours of sunshine with absolutely no sun in the foreseeable forecast. Good grief. That would be considered rubbish even in January or December. If things don't improve by April, I'm gonna look at blowing most of my savings on holidays lol.

[ANYWEATHER]

8 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Even in this warming climate, everything has to fit perfectly into place for 40 Celsius to be reached in the UK as is what happened last July. That 40 Celsius day we had was a truly exceptional event and I personally can't see it becoming commonplace for a while yet. On the other hand, sudden heat spikes in an otherwise benign summer do seem to be the thing with our summers nowadays. During the summers of my childhood, whenever a heatwave was approaching, the days leading up to it would gradually get warmer until we get to the peak day before cooling down again.

 

Last year though, there was one week in picticular where it got gradually warmer day by day, so it was easier to get used to the heat over that period of time..☺

[ANYWEATHER]

9 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

In terms of what we are now seeing, more extreme heat spikes have become more common since post 1987. Not just in the U.K. but across Europe and North America. 
 

But, to assume we won’t get another cool summer or extremely cold sub zero month in the future isn’t a guarantee. Yes, it’s less lightly compared to 36 years ago, never say never.

If you look at the data ,North America has much cooler summers now then they did back in the 1930,s . 

[sunny_vale]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

If you look at the data ,North America has much cooler summers now then they did back in the 1930,s . 

There will always be exceptions to the rule. It doesn't negate the fact that the vast majority of the planet has experienced varying degrees of increased warmth. 

[ANYWEATHER]

7 minutes ago, sunny_vale said:

There will always be exceptions to the rule. It doesn't negate the fact that the vast majority of the planet has experienced varying degrees of increased warmth. 

Without doubt, the US experienced there worst heat and drought in the 1930s ,it's a fact, and it's never been replicated since.....

[Sunny76]

49 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Over the halfway mark for March and we are under 27 hours of sunshine with absolutely no sun in the foreseeable forecast. Good grief. That would be considered rubbish even in January or December. If things don't improve by April, I'm gonna look at blowing most of my savings on holidays lol.

On balance, we had a sunnier winter in the south. Or should I say it was much more noticeable this time, with more frosty sunny days. 

[Sunny76]

46 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Last year though, there was one week in picticular where it got gradually warmer day by day, so it was easier to get used to the heat over that period of time..☺

I would argue summer 2022 was a gradual build up of warm to hot weather. Even into June there were still some cooler days mixed in with the warmth.

[sunny_vale]

4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Without doubt, the US experienced there worst heat and drought in the 1930s ,it's a fact, and it's never been replicated since.....

I didn't say that was an untrue statement, but we need to look at the overall picture so we're not in denial and can sort things out, you know. 

[Sunny76]

9 minutes ago, sunny_vale said:

There will always be exceptions to the rule. It doesn't negate the fact that the vast majority of the planet has experienced varying degrees of increased warmth. 

80 and 88 were very hot in the states. 

[sunny_vale]

9 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

80 and 88 were very hot in the states. 

2021 they almost got to 50C in Canada too in their hottest June on record.

Sorry, I know this is all off topic for Spring discussion - is there a CC chat?

[cheese]

44 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

On balance, we had a sunnier winter in the south. Or should I say it was much more noticeable this time, with more frosty sunny days. 

January was very sunny here - over 170% of the average sunshine. 

February was less sunny but still sunnier than average. Also virtually no rain between 15 Jan - 15 Feb. 
 

March has been dull so far, but today it’s sunny and 12C. Finally feels like spring. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by cheese

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, SunSean said:

Over the halfway mark for March and we are under 27 hours of sunshine with absolutely no sun in the foreseeable forecast. Good grief. That would be considered rubbish even in January or December. If things don't improve by April, I'm gonna look at blowing most of my savings on holidays lol.

Same here! Thank heavens winter was sunny or I’d be banging my head against the wall by now. Fingers crossed for much more sunshine in April.

[MP-R]

10 hours ago, Don said:

Hopefully if El Nino is to develop it happens rapidly as I don't like the prospect of fearsome heat again this summer.  However, long range models seem to be in agreement at this early stage for a hot one!

Heat spikes in the UK really stepped up since 2015.

Although, a summer of lengthy high pressure would bring generally less extreme heat and more likely of the drier variety a la 2018… much more pleasant and easier to deal with than the 1-3 day spikes surrounded by much cooler conditions.

Alternatively, we could end up with an august like 1997… in which case I wouldn’t need to rush out to Florida to see family members

[RebsAbbo]

Spring is here today …..of course it may not be tomorrow , but I’ll take the mild 11c & sunshine today thanks.

[Methuselah]

12 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

35c was achieved in 1976, and 1990 wasn’t far off 40c, so it was a possibility many years ago.

1990 was 37C... But, back then, 35C+ wasn't an annual event: the very idea of seeing 36C exceeded in five successive summers would have been virtually unthinkable, with 32C once every 2 or 3 years being the norm. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Methuselah

[Relativistic]

 

13 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

!990 was 37C... But, back then, 35C+ wasn't an annual event: the very idea of seeing 37C exceeded in five successive summers would have been virtually unthinkable, with 32C once every 2 or 3 years being the norm. 

What's concerning is how rapidly things have changed. It's noticeable to me and I was born in 1996.

In Summer 2011 we had just one day that breached 30°C IIRC. It was a notable event at the time, and that was down in the sunny south-east!

[weirpig]

14 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

!990 was 37C... But, back then, 35C+ wasn't an annual event: the very idea of seeing 36C exceeded in five successive summers would have been virtually unthinkable, with 32C once every 2 or 3 years being the norm. 

Quite Pete  Im quickly approaching 50   and the temp difference recently has been noticeable   of course hot weather was had in the past  but certainly not like the heat and regularity  we have had recently.    Of course that trend is also very clear in the winter months  also.

[cheese]

20 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

 

What's concerning is how rapidly things have changed. It's noticeable to me and I was born in 1996.

In Summer 2011 we had just one day that breached 30°C IIRC. It was a notable event at the time, and that was down in the sunny south-east!

The August 1990 record of 34.4C stood here in Leeds for 29 years. We’ve broken it 3 times since 2019. 
 

Heck, exceeding 90F used to be a rare occurrence here - I think in the 2000s we exceeded 90F once. In the past decade we’ve exceeded 90F several times. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by cheese

[LetItSnow!]

7 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

In my humble opinion, I don’t see 40c being breached again for many years to come. Easily a 1 in 100 or more year event. Every piece of the puzzle literally fell in the right place at exactly the right time (mid July). A very deep plume out of Morocco, over a baking hot Spain and France with very dry soil, highest uppers combining with peak daytime heating, and no flash cloudcover. What was even more exceptional is how far North the temperature record was broken. Coningsby of all places! 
I can’t foresee another event on that level for many years to come. 

I’d like to agree with that and in many ways I think it’s probably true, but the fact that July 2019 and July 2020 both recorded 37/38degC without much in the way of prior warming (especially in July 2020 which was a very cool and wet month) and the fact that it’s three years in the space of a couple that have reached such heights… it’s a couple of things - either we’re in big trouble and this is a new normal or the influence of urban heating is bigger than we think or it’s just a case of exceptional coincidence.

 

We did have the summer of 2021 which actually had the hottest temperature of the year be slightly below the annual average at 32.2degC so we will see… if the summer of 2023 sees more blowtorch heat then I think some plans and conversations will have to be made. Or if this summer and the next few sometimes are relatively modest then we can say it’s just a bizarre set of coincidence. I hope it’s the latter.