Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[SummerSunshine]

Any sign of any hot weather these lows are getting annoying

[MP-R]

Spring at last! 13°C with sunny spells and feeling very pleasant.

[alexisj9]

8 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

In my humble opinion, I don’t see 40c being breached again for many years to come. Easily a 1 in 100 or more year event. Every piece of the puzzle literally fell in the right place at exactly the right time (mid July). A very deep plume out of Morocco, over a baking hot Spain and France with very dry soil, highest uppers combining with peak daytime heating, and no flash cloudcover. What was even more exceptional is how far North the temperature record was broken. Coningsby of all places! 
I can’t foresee another event on that level for many years to come. 

I remember when people were saying this about the 37, it's not taken onehundred years to get over that.

[ANYWEATHER]

Some lovely sky scapes appearing over Winchcombe…….

[Stabilo19]

Well at least we've exchanged cold rain for mild rain 

Hoping for some sunny weather as my seedlings have become very leggy 

[mb018538]

8 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

In my humble opinion, I don’t see 40c being breached again for many years to come. Easily a 1 in 100 or more year event. Every piece of the puzzle literally fell in the right place at exactly the right time (mid July). A very deep plume out of Morocco, over a baking hot Spain and France with very dry soil, highest uppers combining with peak daytime heating, and no flash cloudcover. What was even more exceptional is how far North the temperature record was broken. Coningsby of all places! 
I can’t foresee another event on that level for many years to come. 

I'm not so sure. People often quote 1 in 100 year events....and that probably used to be the case. But in the modern world, it's not a 1 in 100 any more. Some places are seeing events like 1 in 100 year floods every few years now!

The 40c was exceptional though...but could have been higher! It was really windy that day. A still and calm day would have probably seen the 41-42c that was modelled.
France and Spain have been bone dry all winter as well. If spring is dry there, then we will be back in exactly the same position again as last year. Time will tell, but I truly believe I'll see 40c+ recorded again in my lifetime, and maybe more than once. I'm 37.

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I'm not so sure. People often quote 1 in 100 year events....and that probably used to be the case. But in the modern world, it's not a 1 in 100 any more. Some places are seeing events like 1 in 100 year floods every few years now!

The 40c was exceptional though...but could have been higher! It was really windy that day. A still and calm day would have probably seen the 41-42c that was modelled.
France and Spain have been bone dry all winter as well. If spring is dry there, then we will be back in exactly the same position again as last year. Time will tell, but I truly believe I'll see 40c+ recorded again in my lifetime, and maybe more than once. I'm 37.

The wind in the evening about 5pm actually put the temperature up here, it was a very hot wind, that dried you out 

[Summer8906]

What seems to be incredible is the constant barrage of Atlantic lows, on the GFS 00z and 06z, until almost the end of the month.

It seems an incredibly unseasonable synoptic setup for spring, at a time of year when blocking should be significant. Pressure isn't always that low, so perhaps the chance of a month equalling March 1981 for rainfall is receding, but even still, damp, humid and not at all spring like.  Perhaps a good chance of one of the dullest Marches on record, even if it's now less likely to be the wettest.

Thoroughly autumnal in fact - more like a wettish October, albeit one without any really major wind storms.

Doubly surprising given the vortex is to the east of us, rather than over Canada - should that not be quietining things down a little?

The persistent claggy mildness is not good either, as it threatens to bring on spring flowering, which will be wasted if it occurs in the next 10 days to two weeks. I'd prefer cold rain if I'm honest - as at least it would hold the flowering back until more settled weather arrives!

In fact an utter dreary, boring, dismal snooze fest with very little merit whatsoever. I hope April produces more interest, whether that be sunshine or whether it be some late wintriness. Just want typical spring blocking to arrive, and soon!

Edited March 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

26 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I remember when people were saying this about the 37, it's not taken onehundred years to get over that.

There’s a big difference being able to breach 40c here and 37c. You can get 36-37 under the 20c iso no problem under the right conditions. We had the 24-25c isotherm slap bang over us at 3pm on the 19th July 2022. I don’t think we have ever seen that before in the history of record keeping. Even with that, we only just managed 40c. That was no regular or normal occurrence. 

[ANYWEATHER]

22 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I remember when people were saying this about the 37, it's not taken onehundred years to get over that.

To be honest, all this fiddlerdooting about a temperature of 40c it’s happened before and so what! It was 36c here max last year it’s been hotter than that here before now. But getting hung up about a degree here or there over generations isn’t an issue. If 40c was attainable last year it was only for a very short time , probably about an hour or less, it wasn’t widespread 40s and it was gone virtually overnight. I wonder if weather stations had been there centuries ago what temperatures would have they they recorded?!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:

I’d like to agree with that and in many ways I think it’s probably true, but the fact that July 2019 and July 2020 both recorded 37/38degC without much in the way of prior warming (especially in July 2020 which was a very cool and wet month) and the fact that it’s three years in the space of a couple that have reached such heights… it’s a couple of things - either we’re in big trouble and this is a new normal or the influence of urban heating is bigger than we think or it’s just a case of exceptional coincidence.

 

We did have the summer of 2021 which actually had the hottest temperature of the year be slightly below the annual average at 32.2degC so we will see… if the summer of 2023 sees more blowtorch heat then I think some plans and conversations will have to be made. Or if this summer and the next few sometimes are relatively modest then we can say it’s just a bizarre set of coincidence. I hope it’s the latter. 

It just proves that you don’t necessarily need a summer like 2018 or 2006 to achieve record breaking extremes. The same could be said about winter. E.g the BFTE 2018 or 1987, which overall weren’t too cold, just extreme spells. 

[sunny_vale]

16 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest, all this fiddlerdooting about a temperature of 40c it’s happened before and so what! It was 36c here max last year it’s been hotter than that here before now. But getting hung up about a degree here or there over generations isn’t an issue. If 40c was attainable last year it was only for a very short time , probably about an hour or less, it wasn’t widespread 40s and it was gone virtually overnight. I wonder if weather stations had been there centuries ago what temperatures would have they they recorded?!

I was about to reply with some more evidence to show that those claims are false. Then I saw your weather preferences and it all makes sense now, so I will not continue to entertain the comments of an individual with such ignorance to science yet participates in a scientific discussion forum . . .

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Well with all this cloud so far this month SAD has well and truely got me. I've hardly had it at all all winter due to high sun levels down here but my goodness are we paying for it now!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Despite an air pressure of 1001mb and going down, it is quite a pleasant afternoon in my neck of the woods with sunshine, a gentle little breeze and scattered clouds. It is going to feel springlike for the next few days before turning unsettled early next week. 

I am enjoying this March so far as it has been quite mixed. I don't like having the same kind of weather throughout a whole month as it gets boring.

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[matt111]

Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Well with all this cloud so far this month SAD has well and truely got me. I've hardly had it at all all winter due to high sun levels down here but my goodness are we paying for it now!

It’s certainly been a really cloudy month so far but one good thing about this wetter spell we’re having now, at least for here, is that the sun has at least made some appearances albeit mostly brief. Today though it has actually been quite sunny here though and it feels really pleasant. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

4 minutes ago, matt111 said:

It’s certainly been a really cloudy month so far but one good thing about this wetter spell we’re having now, at least for here, is that the sun has at least made some appearances albeit mostly brief. Today though it has actually been quite sunny here though and it feels really pleasant. 

Seen the sun a bit but literally for seconds. It's not cutting it

[TwisterGirl81]

7 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Well with all this cloud so far this month SAD has well and truely got me. I've hardly had it at all all winter due to high sun levels down here but my goodness are we paying for it now!

I think Saturday and especially Sunday will be quite sunny, we have clear skies forecast here in Exeter Sunday so hopefully it cheers you up.  Here's hoping warm sunny days aren't far away for us all

[RebsAbbo]

Out in sunny Scarbados & car is registering 18c!!! Not dressed for this weather 🫠

[Summer Sun]

Nice to actually have it feeling like spring, very pleasant in the sunshine today.

Quite a change from this time last week when it was snowing!

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Seen the sun a bit but literally for seconds. It's not cutting it

Yeah its been quite bleak down here. The lengthening days are helping with the dullness to an extent. 

Still I rather have this now and hopefully tet a better 2nd half to Spring where we can really take advantage of the warmth, at least during the daytime.

[Wold Topper]

5 minutes ago, RebsAbbo said:

Out in sunny Scarbados & car is registering 18c!!! Not dressed for this weather 🫠

Similar down the coast nr Bridlington, car showing 16c, pleasant day on the Yorkshire Coast

[Sunny76]

4 hours ago, MP-R said:

Although, a summer of lengthy high pressure would bring generally less extreme heat and more likely of the drier variety a la 2018… much more pleasant and easier to deal with than the 1-3 day spikes surrounded by much cooler conditions.

Alternatively, we could end up with an august like 1997… in which case I wouldn’t need to rush out to Florida to see family members

I hope we don’t get a 1997. That was a summer of humid and cloudy conditions. Not enough sunshine and many rainy spells of weather. 

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I hope we don’t get a 1997. That was a summer of humid and cloudy conditions. Not enough sunshine and many rainy spells of weather. 

Partly depends where you were; June 1997 was a grotfest, true; but here July 1997 was somewhat sunnier and significantly warmer than normal, and August was warm to hot, though admittedly as you say cloudy at times. Still sunny from around the 8th-19th though.

Certainly not the worst summer of my lifetime, by a long stretch - and better than every summer since 2007, except for 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022.

And more generally, 1997 was a good year. A cold dry January; a good spring; a fine warm September, and frequent fine sunny weather in October.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Summer8906

[cheese]

August 2022 was definitely better than August 1997. 
 

In fact, I think the extreme heat of July 2022 really hides just how good last August was. It was easily the best month of the summer. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by cheese

[Summer8906]

I'd actually say today feels like we've retrogressed from winter back into autumn.

It's become brighter, true, but the air is still very damp and humid and the ground is struggling to dry out following recent rain. The sky, while there are blue patches, looks very disturbed and stormy.

The light level is also very like October, so all and all it feels like a day within a typical unsettled period in October!

Meanwhile, somewhere where it is actually, officially, autumn is getting very much better weather, if a tad extremely hot for one day only:

Melbourne - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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14-day weather forecast for Melbourne.