Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Bit light, need that slightly further east - But I am sure it's heading south so maybe more back end for me!

Me too! 

[Stuie]

8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Well after numerous model runs im still non the wiser what to expect. Im expecting to see snow falling but the real question mark is how much, if any lying snow. The models consistently suggest less accumulating snow for E Anglia compared to Midlands/Wales. This most likely is due to the influence of the N Sea. What complicates matters is my location has often been the boundary between the mild/cold.

Looking very good for W Midlands/N Wales/N Midlands/S Yorks. Also worth mentioning is the strong winds as the low tomorrow tracks E tomorrow night/friday.

Yes TEITS, here are the winds embedded with the lows.

[GokouD]

9 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Well after numerous model runs im still non the wiser what to expect. Im expecting to see snow falling but the real question mark is how much, if any lying snow. The models consistently suggest less accumulating snow for E Anglia compared to Midlands/Wales. This most likely is due to the influence of the N Sea. What complicates matters is my location has often been the boundary between the mild/cold.

Looking very good for W Midlands/N Wales/N Midlands/S Yorks. Also worth mentioning is the strong winds as the low tomorrow tracks E tomorrow night/friday.

I think lying snow may be the real issue. It's been snowing lightly all morning here in the west midlands but it's struggling to stick much.

[Tim Bland]

Hi Snowatch… is crazy snow fan man from Luton joining?   
 

suprised how well the band is holding together and intensifying to the south west. Was expecting it to Peter out around lunchtime before the second pulse but some places might not see a break.  Temps / DPs are a bit marginal for some areas though. Just about clinging to 0 / 0 here but expecting positive numbers for a while around lunchtime 
 

 

[mhielte]

I'm not sure there has been any real trend south of Thursday's system in the last day or two - merely just run to run variation. 

There was a trend south, a more marked one, before then which brought the likes of the far N of England/borders out of the game - basically the northern portion of the Met Office warning area. Since then though, it has been more about today's system being further north.

[Tim Bland]

Here’s Friday morning on 06z in WX format which some may prefer 

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s Friday morning on 06z in WX format which some may prefer 

Newcastle in the SOUTH East could take a battering lol

[sheikhy]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hi Snowatch… is crazy snow fan man from Luton joining?   
 

suprised how well the band is holding together and intensifying to the south west. Was expecting it to Peter out around lunchtime before the second pulse but some places might not see a break.  Temps / DPs are a bit marginal for some areas though. Just about clinging to 0 / 0 here but expecting positive numbers for a while around lunchtime 
 

 

Could you send me the link for that rainfall radar buddy?!!

[Lampostwatcher]

Heavy snow as I type 

[feb1991blizzard]

Round 4?

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s Friday morning on 06z in WX format which some may prefer 

Well Edinburgh and Dundee have trended Southwards as well lol 

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s Friday morning on 06z in WX format which some may prefer 

I didn’t realise Newcastle was so far south. No wonder they don’t wear coats. 

[MJB]

Back in it next week

 

[Battleground Snow]

9 minutes ago, mhielte said:

I'm not sure there has been any real trend south of Thursday's system in the last day or two - merely just run to run variation. 

There was a trend south, a more marked one, before then which brought the likes of the far N of England/borders out of the game - basically the northern portion of the Met Office warning area. Since then though, it has been more about today's system being further north.

The difference between the arpege and  gfs is almost a 100 miles, under 48 hours that is fairly big.

I would be surprised if it was correct over the ecm and arpege at that range.

[chapmanslade]

7 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I didn’t realise Newcastle was so far south. No wonder they don’t wear coats. 

Pretty wet in Belfast too - sea levels rising faster than I thought!

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

The difference between the arpege and  gfs is almost a 100 miles, under 48 hours that is fairly big.

I would be surprised if it was correct over the ecm and arpege at that range.

Hoping you're right but both options have a lot of support still.

 

[Lampostwatcher]

Warnings updated 

 

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06 hrs run is similar in trend to the earlier 00hrs run but with a bit more sharpness upstream we see the effects .

We might have lost our blocking but it looks like its down to the wedges of heights to keep the interest going .

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Warnings updated 

 

Decent - I am hoping I might do okay from round 2! Fingers crossed!

[EML Network]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s Friday morning on 06z in WX format which some may prefer 

according to that I now live in Newcastle

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, MJB said:

Well Edinburgh and Dundee have trended Southwards as well lol 

Aberdeen under water due to AGW!

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Warnings updated 

 

Looks like met office are favouring the ecm arpege over the rest based on the Thursday updated area,

[EML Network]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Aberdeen under water due to AGW!

lmfao thats made me laugh !! 

[nick sussex]

More trough disruption coming at T180 hrs . Very good  so far from the GFS 06 hrs run if you like cold .

[mountain shadow]

Perhaps parts of Scotland that are missing out this week, get the action next week..