Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition

[IDO]

Non-event for me in SE London. Hopefully, others got something better. Did get some snow, then sleet before turning to rain, so a slush-fest. The BBC weather suggests that we are just too close to the snow/rain boundary. Even with this northern spell tomorrow; over 100 meters ASL for snow chances is the guide. Better than nothing, for sure.

The GFS in FI suggests colder than average for the next ten days but mainly dry and cold. The mean backs this up (D1-D8):

However, ECM is more progressive with the westerly flow, so cold zonal up to D10:

GEM is similar to ECM.

[MJB]

Has a sleety mix over me but it's snowing reasonably well 

[Snowy L]

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Has a sleety mix over me but it's snowing reasonably well 

I've found green always means snow on this radar.

[DAVE_ALLEN]

Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.

Edited March 8, 2023 by DAVE_ALLEN

[Stuie]

Going by the 6z GEFS 850 diagrams for my location/EA on Friday, I would expect a warning tweak tomorrow (if backed up by 12z). Other areas already covered by existing warning.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Stuie

[keithlucky]

9 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.

We in March ,snow overnight gone midday often happens  

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, Stuie said:

Going by the 6z GEFS 850 diagrams for my location/EA on Friday, I would expect a warning tweak tomorrow (if backed up by 12z). Other areas already covered by existing warning.

I’m not sure the precip will have much intensity or longevity by the time it reaches East Anglia and the south east on Friday ? One to watch though if you’re in these areas 

[seabreeze86]

Here’s a snap shot from hi resolution models at 1 o’clock vs the Radar 

One things for sure they haven’t got a clue when it comes to convection 

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’m not sure the precip will have much intensity or longevity by the time it reaches East Anglia and the south east on Friday ? One to watch though if you’re in these areas 

Agreed, we need to watch the LP intensity on the 12z, i.e. if 980 currently, don`t want it to drift to 985 etc (at the core). It has to have something about it to begin with.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Stuie

[kate1]

17 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.

To be fair we had lying snow on the ground for over a week in December - and I do remember times in the past, when spring was just around the corner, when fairly intense snowfall was followed by a very swift melt. I have a feeling this happened in April 2006

[Iceaxecrampon]

Cumbrian tops  Thursday 

Best of luck anyone out in it….! 

Lovely  

 

[sheikhy]

Once again ecm less deep and further south than gfs!!!radar watch from here on in!!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Once again ecm less deep and further south than gfs!!!radar watch from here on in!!

Is it down to my neck of the woods yet? Todays precip seems to have gone left and right of us so far

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Once again ecm less deep and further south than gfs!!!radar watch from here on in!!

Any screen shots of the ECM 06z for tonight and tomorrow?

I’ve just noticed the large snowflakes and lower cloud base are traveling east to west (presumably due to the easterly wind) but the radar shows the precip moving from the south west. Could suggest convergence zones which is pepping up the sleet and snow and not picked up correctly by the models ?

[Stuie]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Once again ecm less deep and further south than gfs!!!radar watch from here on in!!

Looks like precipitation gets somewhat reinvigorated by the time it reaches EA on this ECM run. Perhaps the draw from the North Sea, not sure.

Edited March 8, 2023 by Stuie

[Ali1977]

This will be interesting with v strong winds 

[Paul]

A few posts have gone over to the moans and chat thread - that's the place if you just want to comment on or moan about the weather you're having:

 

[Lloyd1]

Again I reiterate models have no clue. Met also removed warnings for me on the west coast of wales and now it’s started to pick up again  

[Ali1977]

Phase 2 now coming from the SW, looks more potent so some heavier precip heading into the late afternoon could be what we need for evaporative cooling and to turn everything back white again

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Once again ecm less deep and further south than gfs!!!radar watch from here on in!!

But the 0c isotherm ends up a little further north than the 00z run tomorrow 

Edited March 8, 2023 by bluearmy

[sheikhy]

Just now, bluearmy said:

But the 0c isotherm ends up a little further north than the 00z run .

Yes mate it does unfortunately for a few hours but i think heads down again after midnight!!still crazy spread on the ensembles at just 18 hours out!could still go 20 30 miles north or south as you say!!!

Anyone know what happened to that raintoday website!!seems to have dissapeared from the net!!!!

[Hathers]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yes mate it does unfortunately for a few hours but i think heads down again after midnight!!still crazy spread on the ensembles at just 18 hours out!could still go 20 30 miles north or south as you say!!!

Anyone know what happened to that raintoday website!!seems to have dissapeared from the net!!!!

It’s a free app now. It’s pretty reliable to be honest. 

[Frostbite80]

It all seems to be going north and not really east.....not sure where the second pulse this evening and overnight is meant to come from, no model showed the precip to get up to Lancaster im sure

Edited March 8, 2023 by Frostbite80

[Paul]

Or for radar

 

Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar | Netweather

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Live weather radar for the UK including weather type to track whether rain, sleet or snow is falling. Updated every 5 minutes.

 

[Updated_Weather]

4 minutes ago, Frostbite80 said:

It all seems to be going north and not really east.....not sure where the second pulse this evening and overnight is meant to come from

Looks like going North East to me