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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition


Paul
Message added by Paul,

This snow watch thread is an extension of the usual model discussion for those who want to chat about the snow chances over the coming days. For more general model discussion, please use the Models, models and more models thread, which also includes the model highlights.

As usual, for more general weather chat, moans and ramps, please head over to the Spring chat thread.

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Non-event for me in SE London. Hopefully, others got something better. Did get some snow, then sleet before turning to rain, so a slush-fest. The BBC weather suggests that we are just too close to the snow/rain boundary. Even with this northern spell tomorrow; over 100 meters ASL for snow chances is the guide. Better than nothing, for sure.

The GFS in FI suggests colder than average for the next ten days but mainly dry and cold. The mean backs this up (D1-D8):

animyfp0.gif

However, ECM is more progressive with the westerly flow, so cold zonal up to D10:

animewo2.gif

GEM is similar to ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

Has a sleety mix over me but it's snowing reasonably well 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Has a sleety mix over me but it's snowing reasonably well 

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I've found green always means snow on this radar.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming

Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.😞

Edited by DAVE_ALLEN
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Going by the 6z GEFS 850 diagrams for my location/EA on Friday, I would expect a warning tweak tomorrow (if backed up by 12z). Other areas already covered by existing warning.

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Edited by Stuie
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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
9 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.😞

We in March ,snow overnight gone midday often happens  

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
4 minutes ago, Stuie said:

Going by the 6z GEFS 850 diagrams for my location/EA on Friday, I would expect a warning tweak tomorrow (if backed up by 12z). Other areas already covered by existing warning.

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I’m not sure the precip will have much intensity or longevity by the time it reaches East Anglia and the south east on Friday ? One to watch though if you’re in these areas 

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

Here’s a snap shot from hi resolution models at 1 o’clock vs the Radar 

One things for sure they haven’t got a clue when it comes to convection 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’m not sure the precip will have much intensity or longevity by the time it reaches East Anglia and the south east on Friday ? One to watch though if you’re in these areas 

Agreed, we need to watch the LP intensity on the 12z, i.e. if 980 currently, don`t want it to drift to 985 etc (at the core). It has to have something about it to begin with.

Edited by Stuie
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers and cold snowy winters
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells
17 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.😞

To be fair we had lying snow on the ground for over a week in December - and I do remember times in the past, when spring was just around the corner, when fairly intense snowfall was followed by a very swift melt. I have a feeling this happened in April 2006

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

Cumbrian tops  Thursday 

Best of luck anyone out in it….! 

Lovely  

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Once again ecm less deep and further south than gfs!!!radar watch from here on in!!

Is it down to my neck of the woods yet? Todays precip seems to have gone left and right of us so far 🙄

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Once again ecm less deep and further south than gfs!!!radar watch from here on in!!

Any screen shots of the ECM 06z for tonight and tomorrow?

I’ve just noticed the large snowflakes and lower cloud base are traveling east to west (presumably due to the easterly wind) but the radar shows the precip moving from the south west. Could suggest convergence zones which is pepping up the sleet and snow and not picked up correctly by the models ?

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Once again ecm less deep and further south than gfs!!!radar watch from here on in!!

Looks like precipitation gets somewhat reinvigorated by the time it reaches EA on this ECM run. Perhaps the draw from the North Sea, not sure.

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Edited by Stuie
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

This will be interesting with v strong winds 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

A few posts have gone over to the moans and chat thread - that's the place if you just want to comment on or moan about the weather you're having:

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Phase 2 now coming from the SW, looks more potent so some heavier precip heading into the late afternoon could be what we need for evaporative cooling and to turn everything back white again 🤞🤞❄️❄️

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Once again ecm less deep and further south than gfs!!!radar watch from here on in!!

But the 0c isotherm ends up a little further north than the 00z run tomorrow 

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Just now, bluearmy said:

But the 0c isotherm ends up a little further north than the 00z run .

Yes mate it does unfortunately for a few hours but i think heads down again after midnight!!still crazy spread on the ensembles at just 18 hours out!could still go 20 30 miles north or south as you say!!!

Anyone know what happened to that raintoday website!!seems to have dissapeared from the net!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire, Orlando
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire, Orlando
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yes mate it does unfortunately for a few hours but i think heads down again after midnight!!still crazy spread on the ensembles at just 18 hours out!could still go 20 30 miles north or south as you say!!!

Anyone know what happened to that raintoday website!!seems to have dissapeared from the net!!!!

It’s a free app now. It’s pretty reliable to be honest. 

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Swineshead, Lincolnshire

It all seems to be going north and not really east.....not sure where the second pulse this evening and overnight is meant to come from, no model showed the precip to get up to Lancaster im sure 🤔

Edited by Frostbite80
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