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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition


Paul
Message added by Paul,

This snow watch thread is an extension of the usual model discussion for those who want to chat about the snow chances over the coming days. For more general model discussion, please use the Models, models and more models thread, which also includes the model highlights.

As usual, for more general weather chat, moans and ramps, please head over to the Spring chat thread.

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
6 minutes ago, Frostbite80 said:

It all seems to be going north and not really east.....not sure where the second pulse this evening and overnight is meant to come from, no model showed the precip to get up to Lancaster im sure 🤔

This is it coming up the Bristol Channel and into southern wales, looks a bit more lively this one!! 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map

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Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
1 hour ago, IDO said:

Non-event for me in SE London. Hopefully, others got something better. Did get some snow, then sleet before turning to rain, so a slush-fest. The BBC weather suggests that we are just too close to the snow/rain boundary. Even with this northern spell tomorrow; over 100 meters ASL for snow chances is the guide. Better than nothing, for sure.

The GFS in FI suggests colder than average for the next ten days but mainly dry and cold. The mean backs this up (D1-D8):

animyfp0.gif

However, ECM is more progressive with the westerly flow, so cold zonal up to D10:

animewo2.gif

GEM is similar to ECM.

Just want to point out that the none event isn't just restricted to SE London.... probably most of England !! Nice to see some flakes falling but it's all a damp squib with a mild air attack on the horizon in time for tomorrow AM - therefore any snow that falls this evening will rapidly turn to slush tomorrow. 

Exception MAY be Saturday AM as the LP swings away and draws in the cold/snow, could produce a better pasting than any of todays/tomorrows mess. 

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Swineshead, Lincolnshire
6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is it coming up the Bristol Channel and into southern wales, looks a bit more lively this one!! 

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Not as widespread as i was expecting though.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
2 minutes ago, Frostbite80 said:

Not as widespread as i was expecting though.

I think this is round 2 anyway 🤷🏼‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
10 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Just want to point out that the none event isn't just restricted to SE London.... probably most of England !! Nice to see some flakes falling but it's all a damp squib with a mild air attack on the horizon in time for tomorrow AM - therefore any snow that falls this evening will rapidly turn to slush tomorrow. 

Exception MAY be Saturday AM as the LP swings away and draws in the cold/snow, could produce a better pasting than any of todays/tomorrows mess. 

No idea where you are getting that info from. No Mild forecast in the north until Sunday at the earliest.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

This could pack a punch...gathering some intensity towards SW Wales..expect it around these parts towards tea time.

Amber warning just been issued for around here and covering East Midlands..NW and NE England and Yorkshire!! For Thursay afternoon.

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Edited by MATTWOLVES 3
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
2 hours ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.😞

Mid-March, standard.  Was anybody really expecting it to be any different…??  

This was never going to be more than a case of watching a few flakes fall, enjoy it for a few hours and back to normal the next day.  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
4 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Hi Snowatch… is crazy snow fan man from Luton joining?   
 

suprised how well the band is holding together and intensifying to the south west. Was expecting it to Peter out around lunchtime before the second pulse but some places might not see a break.  Temps / DPs are a bit marginal for some areas though. Just about clinging to 0 / 0 here but expecting positive numbers for a while around lunchtime 
 

 

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I miss him bad when it snows 😞 Wonder what happened to him

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
46 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Just want to point out that the none event isn't just restricted to SE London.... probably most of England !! Nice to see some flakes falling but it's all a damp squib with a mild air attack on the horizon in time for tomorrow AM - therefore any snow that falls this evening will rapidly turn to slush tomorrow. 

Exception MAY be Saturday AM as the LP swings away and draws in the cold/snow, could produce a better pasting than any of todays/tomorrows mess. 

I suppose it depends on what you expected. Much too early to know how this will turn out, especially once we start to see temps/dews drop just a touch when we move into evening

Sadly it was always expected that bar maybe the North it was going to be a short lasting event, and jn a context I think most of the southern most region will be satisfied unless you in E.London or the most coastal parts of kent/Sussex.

I suspect as the front pulls away it will weaken pretty rapidly on Fri/Sat as cold air undercuts again. Models are pretty turgid with those setups and have a high bust risk typically.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

Amber warnings out. 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Amber warnings out. 

Mainly peaks / moors & Pennines I’d say 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The 06 hrs outputs try to cut a shortwave se around day 3 .

This could provide more snow on the northern flank for the far north and Scotland .

The ICON 12hrs continues that theme . It’s also beginning to add more amplitude upstream by day 5 to help drive more heights to the nw . This supports the GFS 06 hrs run trend .

The ECM isn’t interested so far .

We are relying on a wedge of heights now to develop to the nw n to force the jet further south .

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Expecting the north tomorrow to see what the south has today,  ie sleet / wet snow for towns and low lying areas and settling snow for higher regions. Best bet is back edge as it pulls south tomorrow night / Friday morn.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Expecting the north tomorrow to see what the south has today,  ie sleet / wet snow for towns and low lying areas and settling snow for higher regions. Best bet is back edge as it pulls south tomorrow night / Friday morn.

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Nature, Hurricane, Storm, Plant, Vegetation

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Nature, Map, Plant, Rainforest, Vegetation, Atlas, Sea

As it pulls back south? Will the home counties/Essex - See some of that snow? Or will it just be Rain.

Edited by Updated_Weather
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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
50 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Mid-March, standard.  Was anybody really expecting it to be any different…??  

This was never going to be more than a case of watching a few flakes fall, enjoy it for a few hours and back to normal the next day.  

 

Not so, just driven across the country and pounding down. Not settling yet, but that will change as we creep towards evening.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

This could pack a punch...gathering some intensity towards SW Wales..expect it around these parts towards tea time.

Amber warning just been issued for around here and covering East Midlands..NW and NE England and Yorkshire!! For Thursay afternoon.

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I think that warning is high ground related Matt but you’ve got some decent elevation so you may be in the hunt 

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Cold surging back south on Friday according to GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

12z GEFS moves the boundary slightly  more South than the 6z (extent of mild moving in at 13:00)

Small  detail but it`s there.

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water       12z - Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Atlas, Diagram

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps 🤔 others look way off 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

One area which could receive alot of snow is Northern Ireland as the PPN stalls and pivots and with winds coming in off the sea, plenty of mositure piling in. I would be getting excited if I was living in those areas.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Incredibly inaccurate snow depth chart from GFS (current time )  anyone got these depths in these areas ? Welsh hills perhaps 🤔 others look way off 

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About to get that amount looking at the radar 🤞

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