Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?
IGNORED

Model discussion highlights


Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is now the model highlights thread - so 'insightful' posts (based on insightful reactions from members) from the model discussion thread will be copied here to create a 'crowdsourced' set of highlights.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Welcome to the Ronseal of model discussion threads - it's just model discussion, no frills, no snow watch and definitely no temper tantrums. 

If you want to talk about all the models in relation to all things snow during the coming days, the Snow Watch model thread is the place to go:

This thread is also acting as the model highlights thread, so when posts are marked as insightful by enough people in the snow watch thread, they'll be copied in here to, hopefully, add to the discussion. 

As ever, please keep it friendly and please keep it strictly on-topic.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

Heehee 😆 ….hectic, there must be something really good on TV. 

The 6z GFS operational run for day 8 shows the Atlantic trying to make inroads into cold air in place over the UK and Ireland. Ring any bells?! Though more from the west on this occasion than the southwest to be fair.

Could contain: Art, Chart, Plot, Graphics Could contain: Chart, Plot, Nature, Outdoors, Map, Sea, Water, Atlas, Diagram Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Chart, Plot, Graphics

Reasonable support from the ensemble mean too. Another low about to merge at the base of the Siberian - Scandinavian trough, being pointed southeast as it does so and looking keen for disruption, with impressively cold mean uppers lying in wait. 

Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Graphics, Outdoors, Nature Could contain: Face, Head, Person, Outdoors, Nature Could contain: Art, Graphics, Pattern, Accessories, Modern Art, Outdoors, Nature

Brings us back to the frequent discussion of many months of how slow-moving the hemispheric patterns have been, and how broad longwave patterns that affect weather in specific parts of continents (in this case, the influence of the Siberian-Scandinavia trough on Northern Europe), can last for several weeks once they get established. 

This episode, around the middle of the month, could be an interesting few days, before the flow turns more westerly from around day 12 and Azores heights begin to nose up towards the UK and Ireland, while the PV overall is beginning to show signs of its seasonal contraction, the colder uppers slowly withdrawing northward. 

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Art, Graphics Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram Could contain: Outdoors, Chart, Plot, Nature

By then, the equinox, many might be more ready for something more resembling spring, but whether such an easily reinforced cold pattern gets turned around that quickly might be another thing. 

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset

The ensemble means aren't showing any signs of anything interesting or pleasant coming up...

Could contain: Chart, Plot, PersonCould contain: Chart, Plot, PersonCould contain: Chart, Plot, Person, Face, Head

The only bit of interest I can find is a small EPS cluster in days 11-15 that shows a bit of high pressure to our north, but not enough to do anything interesting...

Could contain: Book, Comics, Publication, Art, Modern Art

I can see why this thread isn't getting as many posts as the other one!!

Edited by RainAllNight
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

ICON cold all the way out to next Thursday with the Atlantic never really making it in and the jet well to the South..Spring on hold

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
6 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

  

 

Could contain: Chart, Plot

 

Ignore this, this appears to be an old chart of something because it starts the forecast in 2022 yet was issued February 2023 though I might just be reading it wrong. Anyway, we are moving towards Neutral-El Nino territory with the cold pool anomalies filtering out already.sstaanim.gif

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Where is the GEM control going😀

Could contain: Chart, Plot, ArtCould contain: Art, Graphics, Modern Art, Outdoors

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset

No UKMO 12z +168h/HD maps yet... was hoping it might show something to liven up this thread...

Could contain: Chart, Plot, PersonCould contain: Chart, Plot, Person, Face, Head

The GFS and GEM ensembles are both showing hints of raised heights to the north after the TPV has moved away towards the far east.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
2 hours ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Usually everyone looks at the big hemisperic picture at long lead times and zooms in to regional charts at short lead times for events like we’re in right now, but for your personal experience and insight it’s good to take a mental note of today’s weather for your location (snow/rain/dry) with this synoptic setup at T+0h for the Northern Hemisphere:

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, ArtCould contain: Art, Modern Art, Graphics, Pattern, Accessories, Outdoors, Face, Head, Person

Might come in handy to draw from that when, say, two winters from now something similar to these synoptics pops up in some GFS run at 384h.

Which takes me to verification. When today was still Day 10, EC did a very fine job at 240h amid all the post-SSW chaos:

Could contain: Art, Graphics, Outdoors, Modern Art

GFS and GEM were both far off:

Could contain: Art, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Art, Modern Art, Chart, Plot, Face, Head, Person, Outdoors

Well, that's maybe bad news for next week then. I was hoping the GEM solution would be correct. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
22 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Well, that's maybe bad news for next week then. I was hoping the GEM solution would be correct. 

The 850hPa temp ensembles for Reading are all showing a mobile pattern with an 'amplitude' of something like 10°C or more in terms of upper temps for the next week or so, which I think is something we've not seen for quite some time as it's generally been continuously mild during all the wet spells I can remember for at least the last 10 months down here!

Could contain: Person, Chart, Line ChartCould contain: Chart, PlotCould contain: Chart, Line Chart

At least this will be something different for anyone who was bored by February. I wasn't... can I have my mid-latitude high back please..?!

Edited by RainAllNight
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

One aspect of the models compared to recent weeks - knocking on 2 months now, is a much wetter spell of weather kicking in. Where were these conditions in second half of Jan and February... we are having a major switcharound moment courtesy of the effects of the SSW.. I'm always nervous when dry benign weather goes on for weeks - wait for that switch to turn on and the heavens open! All suggestive atmosphere is an abnormal slow moving state, with patterns entrenched for long periods dry or wet..

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

MJO forcing signal from Phase 7/8 has worked out quite well as a general forecasting tool given the strong reaction of the MJO to the SSW. We have to take into account the initial setup which was favourable for driving of N Atlantic AWB and the Greenland-Scandi dipole. Then we are seeing the retrogression of the RWT energy scattering signal driving the Alaska-Kamchatka dipole and the N Pac signal keeps strongly +VE and that forces the w'ly wind burst into the Nino area and La Nina is being pushed up towards neutral territory.

Phase 8

Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Collage, Canvas

Forecasting beyond now as we move towards MJO Phase 1 reaction time. That looks to be quite strong so composites may be a fair way to look at this considering the initial state which is likely to be a retrogressing Alaska-Kamchatka high with weak +VE heights Canada-Greenland. Combine that with the exiting E US low and initially returning SE US ridge of sorts that may tamper with the downstream reaction. Without the Alaska high and it being retreating signal and the N Canada blocking is likely to retreat as well; this appears to be linked with C US - E US LP system. Dwindling mid-Atlantic-Greenland +VE heights and the return of the NE Canada LP system is likely to fire up the jet as we go into early Spring but after an initial PM-esque airflow. The jet is likely to extend in the Atlantic with the E seaboard -VE heights exiting and that helps with MJO Phase 1-2 typical reaction but eventually as we go into the April part of Spring we are likely to see the return of the SE US ridge with C US trough's. Though it is likely to help with the low pressure system belt in the Atlantic making it likely that Spring starts with finding it fairly difficult to be warm. 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Person, Nature, Outdoors

Phase 1 mid- March

Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Collage

Phase 2 early April

Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Text, Collage

Ignore spelling mistakes or anything like that, I wrote this late at night.

 

  • Like 4
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

A look at the NOAA/CPC 8-14 Day 500mb outlook and the GFS Jet Stream forecast shows a mobile westerly pattern with frequent low pressure systems moving in from the Atlantic to bring wet and windy weather to the UK. GFS suggesting 6 systems over the next 2 weeks. The UK looks to stay either in the direct path of the Jet or just to the north of it, so cool to cold temperatures - particularly on the back edge of systems as they move through and pull in colder air - with further snow at times for Northern England and Scotland but rain/sleet for the south. Deep cold never too far away to the north, but atm insufficient amplification in the pattern to pull this south.

NOAA 500mb outlook 16th-22nd March: NOAACPC500mb8-14Day16-22Mar23.thumb.gif.0001cf7a994702ce2d4206673e050f34.gif

Jet Stream snapshots 14th Mar Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Nature, Person 21st Mar Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Nature, Person

Next Mon/Tue 13/14th standing out as a spell of very windy weather as a vigorous low pressure system crosses Scotland. So even after the current cold, snowy spell, still lots of interesting weather showing in the models.

GFS Could contain: Chart, Plot, Nature, Outdoors, Art, Graphics ICON Could contain: Chart, Plot, Nature, Outdoors, Art, Graphics

ECM ECM500EuropeTue14Mar23.thumb.GIF.90b6e9419113301f916e8832188b42c6.GIF

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Looking at the next ten days, there is no sign of northern blocking returning, more a westerly flush and classic cold zonal with the north invariably getting colder than the south. Wedges are sent north but are fluid, so there is no sustained block, like the GFS showed on previous runs (GFS moved towards ECM on 0z). The ECM:

animzch2.gif

After D10 on the GFS, we get a cool, wet trough over the UK for 5+ days, but that looks like an outlier versus the ensembles, which continue with a more zonal flow:

animsqt3.gif   Could contain: Chart, Plot, Line Chart  

^ Pressure charts showing op with little support for UK trough.


Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98485-model-output-discussion-snow-watch-limited-edition/?do=findComment&comment=4825319
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset

Have been trying to get the "heights build to the north as the TPV moves away further into Siberia" idea to stick to the 5-day averaged ensemble means. Have kinda sorta got it on 2 out of 3 of them this morning:

Could contain: Ct Scan, Person, Outdoors, Art

Though it doesn't show on the ECM mean, you can nonetheless see it in the clusters:

Could contain: Book, Comics, Publication, Pattern, Person

It looks like the flow would be tilted with lows heading southeast into Europe in this scenario, around the equinox.

Edited by RainAllNight
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

La Nina has now ended so we can't blame our future weather on it as we go into neutral. Don't really have much more to add. Should start climbing over the next few weeks potentially towards El Nino.

Could contain: Bar Chart, Chart

Edited by Eagle Eye
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset

Has the TPV started shrinking for the Spring now? Or am I imagining it?

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Nature

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

La Nina has now ended so we can't blame our future weather on it as we go into neutral. Don't really have much more to add. Should start climbing over the next few weeks potentially towards El Nino.

Could contain: Bar Chart, Chart

What would a EI Nino mean for our weather and what would it reflect on the models?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What would a EI Nino mean for our weather and what would it reflect on the models?

I'm not sure about Summer as the ENSO reactions are less amplified in Summer but it's generally better for Winter cold because El Nino Winters tend to be less zonal than La Nina Winters. Too late this Winter with just neutral but generally next Winter might have slightly better cold chances than this one when thinking about the whole season.

Edited by Eagle Eye
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...