Model discussion highlights

[Rain All Night]

20 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I'm not sure about Summer as the ENSO reactions are less amplified in Summer but it's generally better for Winter cold because El Nino Winters tend to be less zonal than La Nina Winters. Too late this Winter with just neutral but generally next Winter might have slightly better cold chances than this one when thinking about the whole season.

A few days ago, @CreweCold wrote that a strong El Nino might "sound the death knell" on next winter. I assume the key word there is "strong". I have noticed yourself EE and other posters express positivity towards the prospect of having El Nino with us next winter, so I'm guessing that a weak or moderate El Nino might have more favourable effects?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

A few days ago, @CreweCold wrote that a strong El Nino might "sound the death knell" on next winter. I assume the key word there is "strong". I have noticed yourself EE and other posters express positivity towards the prospect of having El Nino with us next winter, so I'm guessing that a weak or moderate El Nino might have more favourable effects?

Yep a strong event wouldn’t be good. A weak-moderate Modoki Nino could be the ticket though!

[Rain All Night]

6 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Have been trying to get the "heights build to the north as the TPV moves away further into Siberia" idea to stick to the 5-day averaged ensemble means. Have kinda sorta got it on 2 out of 3 of them this morning:

Though it doesn't show on the ECM mean, you can nonetheless see it in the clusters:

It looks like the flow would be tilted with lows heading southeast into Europe in this scenario, around the equinox.

Well here is the UKMO looking "tilted" a bit sooner than the equinox. Azores high not in charge here:

The TPV doesn't look welcome in Greenland on these charts.

Edited March 9, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Mucka]

As previously suggested they might, the models and ensembles have started to toy with stalling low pressure around mid month and have it tracking/sliding S. Example of one such case below. 

Currently the favoured option is to have it far enough N and E that it brings milder wet weather to the UK but it could well be a trigger low to another cold spell second half March and bring snow if it slides SE when further W

Either way, after a brief milder couple of days around 12th/13th, and then a renewed push of cold, it currently looks like March isn't going to warm up proper for some time with the battle of cold air to the N and E and mild to the S and W continuing somewhere close to and at times over the UK.

Here are the 12z ensembles for N England. Note the growing cluster of ensembles that keep it cold after the initial Northerly plunge on the 14th. The mean went up to zero on the 16th just this morning BTW.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Mucka

[SLEETY]

Northern Scotland staying very cold for the foreseeable, a very cold month up there looking likely. 

Less cold elsewhere, but wouldn't take much for the  cold to come flooding South again. 

Looks like nobody's interested anymore,no posts for over an hour? but it has even snowed and settled here on South Coast up to early April. 2008 one example. 

[Rain All Night]

8 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Have been trying to get the "heights build to the north as the TPV moves away further into Siberia" idea to stick to the 5-day averaged ensemble means. Have kinda sorta got it on 2 out of 3 of them this morning:

Though it doesn't show on the ECM mean, you can nonetheless see it in the clusters:

It looks like the flow would be tilted with lows heading southeast into Europe in this scenario, around the equinox.

Well well, it looks like I may get the hat-trick tonight. The positive anomaly around the Azores is even completely gone on the GEFS chart. At least it's not a boring +NAO pattern.

[Stuie]

31 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Well well, it looks like I may get the hat-trick tonight. The positive anomaly around the Azores is even completely gone on the GEFS chart. At least it's not a boring +NAO pattern.

The problem is,  it is at least a neutral west based NAO. Heights are way past Greenland.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Stuie

[stodge]

Evening all

GEM first proposed the notion of the Atlantic LP disrupting in situ middle to end of next week allowing heights to build from the north a couple of days ago.

It's now showing up on a lot of the 12Z output - not perhaps a full disruption but the LP fills and eases ESE as heights build down and from then an E'ly is on the cards as we move into the final third of the month.

It may be Northern Scotland never really loses the cold and snow tornadoes while further south the milder interludes get briefer and the colder spells get more pronounced - nothing desperte in all fairness (-8 850s at best, the hint of an occasional -12 but certainly a long way short of spring.

 

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, Stuie said:

The problem is,  it is at least a neutral west based NAO. Heights are way past Greenland.

Yeah, I know it's not interesting in 'that' way, it's just something to look at!

Here are some more things to look at... there are some chilly-looking wind directions for my south coast location from the 17th onwards on the GEFS:

And here are the EC46 charts...

I have got used to the idea that we want the MJO in high amplitude phases 6, 7 and 8 (I think) when we want high latitude blocking for cold weather. Which phases do we want when we want mid-latitude blocking for warm weather?

Edited March 9, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Snowman.]

Potential for some hefty winds across much of the UK in the coming days.

[Snowman.]

ICON shows the wrap around and heading SE of the front causing snow behind it.

Will be horrid conditions with thawed snow, rain & snow again heading back south

[Cloud 10]

Impressive performance for today's pattern from all the models when looking at output from 6 days ago,with the UKMO closest.

 

Today:

 

ECM-GEM-GFS-UKMO from 6 days ago:

 

 

[Mark wheeler]

Wow Gfs was way off in comparison to others there cloud 10 .

Now to look forward, this rogue run hopefully is a proper trend setter.  Even if not there's a chance going forwards

.

[Polar Maritime]

Do not attempt to travel to the Peak District tomorrow it will be impossible to get anywhere once here over 250m ish, over a foot here already, and drifting heavy snow is to continue overnight.

Localy here this is life threatening weather.. if standed out in it..

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98485-model-output-discussion-snow-watch-limited-edition/?do=findComment&comment=4828109

[geordiekev]

Latest GFS showing further chances midweek after a weekend warm up.

Be interesting to see what oprions spring up the weekend after with Greeny heights returning & still not much mobility upstream, so expect varying outcomes

[daz_4]

ECM is quite consistent the last few runs with push of warm air to Europe late next week. GFS is different from 120 hours and colder.

 vs 

[geordiekev]

17 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

ECM is quite consistent the last few runs with push of warm air to Europe late next week. GFS is different from 120 hours and colder.

 vs 

Doesn't last too long in our parts as heights try to build in Atlantic bringing a return of a northerly plunge shown on latest GFS and ECM 12z control

Edited March 10, 2023 by geordiekev

[Nick2373]

As the excitement fizzles out and the cold retreats to the North a look forward on the 0Z shows a counting trend to some more settled and warmer towards the end of the month. Time for spring to roll in. 

[daz_4]

2 hours ago, geordiekev said:

Doesn't last too long in our parts as heights try to build in Atlantic bringing a return of a northerly plunge shown on latest GFS and ECM 12z control

Yes, UK is definitely more influnced by the cold air while spring is having upper hand in Central Europe. 15C forecasted here for today.

It's just interesting difference for my part of the world between ECM ENS and GFS ENS.

 

 vs. 

 

[Blessed Weather]

I find it interesting to look at the GFS 2m temperature anomaly charts (versus 1981-2010 average) which tell the story of the last week and the coming week. First the 7 day hindcast which shows all of the UK in the cold arctic sourced air with temps several degrees below average, but mainland Europe not yet impacted:

But the 7 day trend is clear with UK temps on the up, whilst Europe, particularly the likes of Serbia, Albania and Greece, see a substantial fall:

Nevertheless, the coming week's mean temps reveal only the very south of the UK returns to close to average (for the time of year) whilst most other parts of the UK remain below average, particularly the further north you go. Meanwhile, despite the forecast fall in temps, many parts of Europe remain above average:

Source: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

[Rain All Night]

Here's that pattern starting to come into view. The TPV moves away and heights rise behind it, lows start tracking south of us, we start to dry out especially further north, Spring stays out of sight for now.

Edited March 10, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Ali1977]

One ti watch fir next Tuesday, will we have another notable event 

[Skullzrulerz]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

One ti watch fir next Tuesday, will we have another notable event 

What does the UKMO/ECM say?

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

What does the UKMO/ECM say?

 

The control and mean are pretty impressive, the UKMO looks similar. ECM to come 

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

 

The control and mean are pretty impressive, the UKMO looks similar. ECM to come 

GEM and JMA both say potent shot too !! 

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

One ti watch fir next Tuesday, will we have another notable event 

I've long thought that winter 20122-23 has been similar to that of 1969-70... Although it's been (apart from the usual suspects) nowt out of the ordinary -- although those south of the M4 corridor have mostly not missed out, most of us have not been over-endowed with snow... But (as happened in 1970) March and April look like delivering.