Heavy snowfalls likely for Ireland, Wales, north Midlands and northern England (9-10 Mar 2023)

[Roger J Smith]

Seems like there is no thread dedicated to this subject other than the Netweather forecast thread, which should probably remain uncluttered by NW member chat and opinion. So here we go ... with a strong low poised to move from near 50N 20W (00z 9th) across far south of England into Benelux region, and cold air entrenched over parts of Northern Ireland, northern England, limited warm advection, all signs point to a 15-30 cm snowfall potential for many parts of Ireland (north of a Galway to Louth corridor and including all of Northern Ireland), north and central Wales, north Midlands, and northwest England, Pennines and parts of northeast England also. Some parts of southern Scotland could be included, with bands of North Sea snow embedded and extending further north in the flow approaching the storm zone.

Snow may be heavy at times with thunder-snow possible. Disruptions to travel seem very likely. Heaviest snow probably Thursday evening into Friday early morning hours. Winds east to northeast 50-80 km/hr could produce large drifts on exposed higher slopes in north Wales and Pennines, also near Strabane Pass in NI. 

Post observations, nowcasts and chat here ... and enjoy. 

[Roger J Smith]

GFS predicted snow depths for 0600h Friday (some snow is already on the ground in a few higher locations of Britain in this depiction, and some current snow depth in south will be lost)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/hauteur-neige/36h.htm

[Arnie Pie]

Thundersnow

Going by the GFS

the best chance for storms will be this afternoon ?

We have had some good mid/ low level sheer all day 

[Kasim Awan]

Snow sheild event.

[Roger J Smith]

Probably best chance for thundersnow in NI around 4 p.m. to midnight, lesser chances in Britain and a similar or bit later time frame. 

Peak District 15-25 cm potential but I can see Cheshire only 5-10 due to shielding and downsloping, some southern areas are going to see mixed freezing drizzle and snow making for very icy roads in places. 

[johnholmes]

9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Probably best chance for thundersnow in NI around 4 p.m. to midnight, lesser chances in Britain and a similar or bit later time frame. 

Peak District 15-25 cm potential but I can see Cheshire only 5-10 due to shielding and downsloping, some southern areas are going to see mixed freezing drizzle and snow making for very icy roads in places. 

mixed freezing drizzle and snow making for very icy roads in places. 

Sorry Roger I doubt that

[Eagle Eye]

Thundersnow chance from this setup generally limited, thunderrain with the showers in the south is possible later though. The strong CAPE is as the warm sector moves through with the WAA or moisture from the south this evening. Obviously cannot rule out an odd strike ahead of the warm sector with the initial diffuse warm front.

[Sprites]

One of my cats has started lamp post watching, must of got frustrated and attacked the net as it was snowing all day, but didn't settle. 

[Jo Farrow]

As Wales, N.England, N.Midlands & N.Ireland brace themselves for more heavy snow, strengthening E/NE winds and even blizzard conditions tonight with 3 Amber warnings, it is @meteofrance  who have named the low #StormLarisa #TempêteLarisa with wind warnings for south of France tomorrow (Fri 10th)

Southern Scotland cameras https://www.traffic.gov.scot/#  aren't showing much

 

 

 

[Jo Farrow]

Radar Extra with winds and NASA WOrldView on Thurs 9th

[Roger J Smith]

Seems like in Ireland a lot of mixed sleety falls at low elevations in the north-central regions, snow accumulations of 5-15 cm reported by weather watchers in Clare, Tipps, higher parts of Galway and Mayo. Only now starting to accumulate at all in Ulster but as low pulls away from Ireland, colder air mixes in and cold rain or sleet should change to all snow, places already snowing could see bursts of heavier snow. Have not seen too many reports from England, but from weather station reports looks to be accumulating mainly above 100m, perhaps 150m asl. 

[Jo Farrow]

Heavy graupel shower in last hour for East Lothian, so northern extent of frontal band