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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Looking at the GEFS this morning, there is a clear sign of a period of above-average temps, with rain, especially in the west, the main take. For London:

Could contain: Chart, Line Chart

Late in the run, signs that we may see a dip, and the op runs have been highlighting this of late (D16):

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Nature

ECM offering similar to GFS, D0-D10:

animhnc7.gif GEM:animwae1.gif

The GEM shows an x-model consistency, so the next ten days have higher confidence for the long-wave pattern. 

As for the SSW, it has done minor damage to the tPV; maybe the main synoptic is planting the tPV in the Siberian region. GEFS mean.

D0-D8 mean:animhcj0.gif

D8-16 mean:animfoi6.gif

Currently, that does not seem like a cold scenario in the UK.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Plenty of evidence on the models of further downwelling and we see the same imprint into the trop again with height dissipating over the Canadian sector and the Asian vortex on an axis towards the euro sector - in a similar fashion to last week. However, wavelengths are a changing and getting a trough far enough south to bring uppers below -8c for longer than a transient come go and low enough thicknesses will be pretty difficult. We see some runs bringing a wedge to our nw and that could be of note if we got a diver se but again, away from elevation and the far north England or Scotland, I doubt that will be overly interesting.  A generally chilly spring likely to continue although as pointed out earlier, when we get a a flow south if west, temps will feel v pleasant indeed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Starting a new model thread - please keep it to the models in here 🙂 

We have a highlights thread available also, based on the insightful reactions to posts in here, so please use that if you think a post should be copied over into the highlights, which are here:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

It does need pointing out that if we were six weeks earlier in the season then we would be v v busy on this thread. the pattern need only be 500 miles south (which it may well have been if 4 to 6 weeks ago) to have delivered a memorable wintry period 

The question to be asked for future reference is prolonged displacement ssw or highly amplified MJO ??  Or both ?  We know that split ssw is a big plus for nw euro cold but we usually see the displacement type as better for n America (which is indeed going through a cold spring).  This seasons ssw ramifications could well be skewed a little by the extremely amplified MJO 

more complexities …..

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It does need pointing out that if we were six weeks earlier in the season then we would be v v busy on this thread. the pattern need only be 500 miles south (which it may well have been if 4 to 6 weeks ago) to have delivered a memorable wintry period 

The question to be asked for future reference is prolonged displacement ssw or highly amplified MJO ??  Or both ?  We know that split ssw is a big plus for nw euro cold but we usually see the displacement type as better for n America (which is indeed going through a cold spring).  This seasons ssw ramifications could well be skewed a little by the extremely amplified MJO 

more complexities …..

My view, is that the SSW ruled the roost and not the MJO.  I know some may disagree, but the massively amplified MJO only occurred after the SSW, so was a consequence of it.

Re our weather, it is possible that the earlier MJO towards phase 7, helped with the trop response to the SSW when it happened.  But I’m not attributing the hemisphere patterns for the next month to the MJO, I think it is clear it is down to the SSW.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

My view, is that the SSW ruled the roost and not the MJO.  I know some may disagree, but the massively amplified MJO only occurred after the SSW, so was a consequence of it.

 

You could also see the coupling down to the trop from the strat pattern on various sources 👍

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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

The 12z ECM operational run is full of wedges. There is a key one at day 5, running from Scotland up to Greenland, which helps cut off the low to the west of Ireland more than in the other models, keeping it a bit further south too. Mild at that stage. 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Art Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Accessories, Outdoors

By day 9, wedges each way north and south out of Greenland, help put the squeeze on the Eurasian PV, it elongates further as low pressure crosses the UK and Ireland, 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art Could contain: Food, Fries, Food Presentation, Bread

the low joining the trough set up by the PV elongation, that subsequently extends down into Central Europe at day 10,

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Outdoors Could contain: Chart, Plot, Face, Head, Person Could contain: Pattern, Accessories, Art, Person

bringing us into another cold northerly blast, part of a cross-polar flow from the Bering Sea to the Balearics. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Cambrian said:

The 12z ECM operational run is full of wedges. There is a key one at day 5, running from Scotland up to Greenland, which helps cut off the low to the west of Ireland more than in the other models, keeping it a bit further south too. Mild at that stage. 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Art Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Accessories, Outdoors

By day 9, wedges each way north and south out of Greenland, help put the squeeze on the Eurasian PV, it elongates further as low pressure crosses the UK and Ireland, 

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art Could contain: Food, Fries, Food Presentation, Bread

the low joining the trough set up by the PV elongation, that subsequently extends down into Central Europe at day 10,

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Outdoors Could contain: Chart, Plot, Face, Head, Person Could contain: Pattern, Accessories, Art, Person

bringing us into another cold northerly blast, part of a cross-polar flow from the Bering Sea to the Balearics. 

Based on some of its recent outputs, I think the ECM has 'had its chips'. 😁

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Very quiet in here today, must admit my attention has been on nowcasting in the past week, and watching for potential snow events, hence I haven't studied the models for longer term trends much.

Looking at them today, its a very unsettled outlook for the foreseeable, March certainly making up for February dryness. UK set primed for slow moving atlantic trough, pulling in mild moist air at first, but a signal it may push eastwards as we move further through second half of the month with something colder from between north and west in time, with heights building somewhat to the NW. Wet is probably the best word to describes the models currently, much milder in the near term, but probably temps will drop back to near average for all, and increasingly below further north.

I'm non too fussed with March weather, roll on Spring proper come April.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Evening. Well I am rather gob smacked looking at the 850mb temp chart from ECM  at day 10. Just look at those positive values over much of Central and Eastern Europe. Strange to see readings  so high under a extended European trough at the end of March . Surely something wrong in this out put ? Donavon's old hit record ," Mellow Yellow " comes to mind. Looks like UK tapping into some Arctic Air mass going by this chart but with snow melt advancing in the Alps ?

C

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Art, Modern Art, Map

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
33 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looks like UK tapping into some Arctic Air mass going by this chart but with snow melt advancing in the Alps ?

If you're talking about Northern Scotland or northwards as the UK (nothing new here)?...I'm quite amazed how consistently there seems to be enough low heights to the south over the UK stopping the advancement southwards of the Am airmass considering these probably are still the effects of the ongoing SSW but then again synoptically and hempisherically (not sure if that's a word) speaking how underwhelming I've found the last week or so.  

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

If you're talking about Northern Scotland or northwards as the UK (nothing new here)?...I'm quite amazed how consistently there seems to be enough low heights to the south over the UK stopping the advancement southwards of the Am airmass considering these probably are still the effects of the ongoing SSW but then again synoptically and hempisherically (not sure if that's a word) speaking how underwhelming I've found the last week or so.  

Jetstream shunted south but not south enough to allow a clean northerly flow through whole UK, instead low pressure tracking through southern half of UK or through N France, squeezed by what appear to be stubborn heights out of N Africa into Iberia with heat building here.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Jetstream shunted south but not south enough to allow a clean northerly flow through whole UK, instead low pressure tracking through southern half of UK or through N France, squeezed by what appear to be stubborn heights out of N Africa into Iberia with heat building here.

Yes agree! very little has been happening over much of Europe during this SSW - sign of things to come I'm afraid. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset

The ECM ensemble mean has quite a rapid surge in heights from the south over just a few days the weekend after next, I might have expected to see something like that from the north instead given the Met Office update.

Could contain: Chart, Plot, PersonCould contain: Chart, Plot, Person

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
10 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The ECM ensemble mean has quite a rapid surge in heights from the south over just a few days the weekend after next, I might have expected to see something like that from the north instead given the Met Office update.

Could contain: Chart, Plot, PersonCould contain: Chart, Plot, Person

May be it builds through and eventually ends up to our north, perhaps connecting to the Greenland high. Thing is I can't see a way for an undercut there. I take it it's an anomaly. It may look different by next week, we'll see.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

No change from the GFS. The GEFS long-term average and the mean for 850s are below for London, above average for the next week and then returning to average:

Could contain: Chart, Line Chart

2m temps look above average as a whole:

Could contain: Chart, Line Chart

The op is a bit of an outlier with that colder couple of days in FI. Next 10-days rainfall, west>east is a good metric:

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram

ECM and GEM similar for Atlantic/Europe in the next ten days (ECM):

animsmt7.gif

The GFS op is more amplified by D10, but that is not reflected in the mean, which is more in line with ECM and GEM:

op D10: Could contain: Chart, Plot, Outdoors, Nature mean: Could contain: Outdoors, Nature

Into April, GEFS mean is still focusing on tPV over the Siberia region, so there is unlikely to be any sea-change in the current long wave pattern assuming the mean is on or near point.

D8-D16 GEFS mean: animeof2.gif

So, average fare with no unseasonal cold or warmth for the rest of March based on the recent outputs by GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
12 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Yes agree! very little has been happening over much of Europe during this SSW - sign of things to come I'm afraid. 

and certainly no record breaking cold in these parts as some were touting a week ago. In fact temperatures are noticeably above normal over the next week.

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Person

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

ecmt850 1.webpecmt850.webp

28 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

and certainly no record breaking cold in these parts as some were touting a week ago. In fact temperatures are noticeably above normal over the next week.

Well we know who the 'culprit' was...who has a laughable track record when it comes to predicting cold weather.

The Arctic air mass locked in place to the north of Scotland and there it stays...

 

 

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Just been doing my daily check mushy. I am not totally agreeing with a colder spell but there are interesting developments taking place. Lowering contour heights, decreasing strength of speeds at 500 mb, developing -ve heights ne of Greenland wsw of the UK. It does make me wonder if some kind of cold weather is in the making so to speak. Fence sitting for a couple of days as it is all rather problematical but interesting. Personally I hope I am wrong, I want some warmth please!

Hi John... im only talking about a brief spell, like Tuesdays.. theres a lot of Arctic air arriving in the North Atlantic mix, and with the lowering heights on not only the NOAA but the equivelent EPS would suggest a blast of Colder air following an exiting system on its back edge would seem possible?
The good news is that the EPS which has been very accurate ove the cold spell, does suggest rising heights after next weekend, so maybe something more Springlike is on the cards. Its been a long Winter, with the December cold, it is now time for some warmth!

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