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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted

ECM

Surely not. High to the top of us, high to the bottom of us, here I am stuck in the middle with you

 

boimage.thumb.png.f728187e605e70af23cd9fd3f8adca05.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot
Posted

image.thumb.png.f7d321a24120d40fa3ab08dbbcc0ea64.png

 

06z shows a mild blip with some rain behind it for the 15th could have some cracking storms chucked into that. then back down to just below the 30 year mean winds probably from the Northwest direction pretty much the same as what we've been seeing of late.  after the this the 21st onwards seems to show something more settled less rain then after this looks like its up for grabs 50/50 split to something more warmer perhaps, i think this month will be remembered for heavy showers and thunderstorms  typical what we should have in July in the UK.  

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted
36 minutes ago, Downburst said:

ECM

Surely not. High to the top of us, high to the bottom of us, here I am stuck in the middle with you

 

boimage.thumb.png.f728187e605e70af23cd9fd3f8adca05.png

We need to put distrust in the NWP output as things stand and as @MattHhighlighted earlier.   

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

As a long time user and believer in just what the NOAA anomaly charts are used for, this is not one of them

'But there is always microscale detail that these broad brush anomaly charts will miss.'

They give a pretty good outlook for the 6-14 day tie frame of what the main synoptic pattern at 500 mb will be. That is what they should be used for. Remember that in 'most' cases it is the upper air, be it at 500mb or 300 mb (jet stream) that governs what the surface weather will be like. Predicting the flow at those heights, be it the pre model era or now, has always been easier than trying to predict, even shorter scale, what the surface weather will do. That requires many years experience but is fun trying to link the two even without that experience so long as anyone understands it is little use looking for surface detail with them.

Sorry if I sound unkind that is not my intention. This web site is, in my view, perhaps the best for all, whatever experience we have in the weather field. I am constantly amazed at how much knowledge folk have on here, a good deal of it way above my own.

Thanks John, totally agree. This was the point I was trying to get across earlier. 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted
15 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

We need to put distrust in the NWP output as things stand and as @MattHhighlighted earlier.   

Ah, well we will wait for them to comment before daring to post charts from the most accurate NWP output in the world 😄

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted

Have to say it @danmthat the met office update was disappointing however on that note i probably will come back there in 3 days time and get a better grasp like we all will.   

The NWP is really struggling currently and unless theres an uptick somewhere our weather will be in limbo really.    

it all hinges now on what was mentioned and suggested this morning of whether the upticks of AAM will materialise which they should.   

Would be very surprised if they didn't.   

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted

@Downburstthe NWP isn't handling things very well at the moment as was highlighted earlier.  More variables need to be looked at and that basically.   

Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
Posted

Still looking hellish'ish for the last week of july, It's gonna be very hard to shake off those low anomalies which covers basically the whole europe+ north africa for the last week of july, i don't think we even were in this position in july 2012. 

Could contain:

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Firstly it's good to see @Tamara and @MattH giving us a brilliant rundown of the sypnotic pattern and where we could head into the final part of Summer.

Secondly I've said now for the last few weeks that the met updates have left alot to be desired with their longer range output..for days now they have spoken about this improving situation later this month and into August...well guess what today they've dropped the idea and gone with remaining showery with temps around average! You would think these so called pros would wait a little longer before going for a completely different write up again and they wonder why many mortals say they have not got a clue. Every possible forecast known to man as been offered up by them in the last few weeks...utterly bizzare situation.

God help us when they issue the Winter forecasts...and my guess would be milder than average..and next Summers will be well above average...blah blah.

In the shorter term sunshine and showers and the scope for longer periods of rain at times for some areas. But we appear stuck In a rut for the next 10 days. I'm really hoping we see an upturn in fortunes come months end.

Just look at the med! It's on fire,while we struggle to late teens!

@Tamara get the spare room ready im on my way...ive had enough 🤣

Keep the faith folks for a while longer.

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: SE Wales.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, mild/warm summers and varied shoulder seasons
  • Location: SE Wales.
Posted

As a newbie chart reader I shall offer my analysis for the GFS 12z he he he :P. I see a cut-off low on the weekend which looks windy and wet then on Sunday/Monday it moves north torwards western Norway leaving the UK in a more westerly flow. I would guess some more settled weather for the south especially it seems far north could stay unsettled ,I don't see heatwaves happening but should have some decent days. I also see the Greenland high going away which means less blocking. Some Azores influence in FI but I don't tend to bank on anything beyond 240 h myself. 

  • Like 1
Posted

Defo an improvement through next week on both the GFS and GEM Ops, not quite there yet and anything warmer and more settled over a longer seems unlikely given the momentum still seems to favour lows sliding down from the north west. 

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

Well, it's England's fault by throwing away the 1st test but, blimey, it'd be a right anti-climax if the weather ends up denying England The Ashes next week

Old Trafford looks to be both in the firing line for showers or just south enough to benefit from the High trying to stick its nose in from the middle of next week

Unfortunately, the GFS looks a warm run when compared to the ensemble suite in terms of 850s

image.thumb.png.3abcc43eb23901e1a074a65ce15244a6.png

Edited by LRD
Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted
1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Firstly it's good to see @Tamara and @MattH giving us a brilliant rundown of the sypnotic pattern and where we could head into the final part of Summer.

Secondly I've said now for the last few weeks that the met updates have left alot to be desired with their longer range output..for days now they have spoken about this improving situation later this month and into August...well guess what today they've dropped the idea and gone with remaining showery with temps around average! You would think these so called pros would wait a little longer before going for a completely different write up again and they wonder why many mortals say they have not got a clue. Every possible forecast known to man as been offered up by them in the last few weeks...utterly bizzare situation.

God help us when they issue the Winter forecasts...and my guess would be milder than average..and next Summers will be well above average...blah blah.

In the shorter term sunshine and showers and the scope for longer periods of rain at times for some areas. But we appear stuck In a rut for the next 10 days. I'm really hoping we see an upturn in fortunes come months end.

Just look at the med! It's on fire,while we struggle to late teens!

@Tamara get the spare room ready im on my way...ive had enough 🤣

Keep the faith folks for a while longer.

I would love to know whats changed to give us what is looking increasingly like a very unsettled July? I go back to Crewecolds post in May where there was a 'clean sweep' from the longer term models for a high pressure dominated July with sizzling temperatures. Does make you wonder for their worth...maybe worth bearing this in mind when they dish up their winter offerings.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I would love to know whats changed to give us what is looking increasingly like a very unsettled July? I go back to Crewecolds post in May where there was a 'clean sweep' from the longer term models for a high pressure dominated July with sizzling temperatures. Does make you wonder for their worth...maybe worth bearing this in mind when they dish up their winter offerings.

Good for experimentation and developing the science but never to be taken too seriously. Their accuracy is probably better in winter too

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted

Next week still looking better, which is all relative ofcourse, so don’t go expecting a heatwave. However, most models are now consistently showing some degree of ridging in of the Azores high, more robustly further south, less so further north where incursions of low pressure is still likely. 

GFS

image.thumb.png.d520969064e5a9d2c82449218a3b9ada.png
 

image.thumb.png.fe073575c5529a678886cfbd12f6d765.png
 

image.thumb.png.7f780111727d2c4d25f53e735b949131.png
 

GEM

image.thumb.png.321d85fdaa03dcd4bea47f7a6c5845d1.png

image.thumb.png.fa47a354b53975a905c62c037bfb21c2.png
 

image.thumb.png.f27b269e4bad744fb35edd2a7c141f8d.png

image.thumb.png.b27905e5fdd40b2c0ca1ecc58c623a21.png
 

UKMO only goes out till Tuesday but shows a similar picture:

image.thumb.png.a360b0bd7462db5974ff561ac8da1b6a.png
 

image.thumb.png.4441f367e4e378315c35bd0906a0e6df.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I would love to know whats changed to give us what is looking increasingly like a very unsettled July? I go back to Crewecolds post in May where there was a 'clean sweep' from the longer term models for a high pressure dominated July with sizzling temperatures. Does make you wonder for their worth...maybe worth bearing this in mind when they dish up their winter offerings.

It wasn’t quite a clean sweep as initially the CFS and GLOSEA weren’t as keen. EC seasonal went to town on the signal though.

Here’s the April update of GLOSEA-

2cat_20230401_mslp_months35_global_deter
 

They briefly converged on the idea of a HP dominated July but I suspect they were running away with the strong June Signal.

It also doesn’t help that we only get tri-month averages with GLOSEA, it would be useful to see the monthly breakdown.

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, danm said:

Next week still looking better, which is all relative ofcourse, so don’t go expecting a heatwave. However, most models are now consistently showing some degree of ridging in of the Azores high, more robustly further south, less so further north where incursions of low pressure is still likely. 

GFS

image.thumb.png.d520969064e5a9d2c82449218a3b9ada.png
 

image.thumb.png.fe073575c5529a678886cfbd12f6d765.png
 

image.thumb.png.7f780111727d2c4d25f53e735b949131.png
 

GEM

image.thumb.png.321d85fdaa03dcd4bea47f7a6c5845d1.png

image.thumb.png.fa47a354b53975a905c62c037bfb21c2.png
 

image.thumb.png.f27b269e4bad744fb35edd2a7c141f8d.png

image.thumb.png.b27905e5fdd40b2c0ca1ecc58c623a21.png
 

UKMO only goes out till Tuesday but shows a similar picture:

image.thumb.png.a360b0bd7462db5974ff561ac8da1b6a.png
 

image.thumb.png.4441f367e4e378315c35bd0906a0e6df.png

Yep, some improvement but beware of the GFS - it is a warm run (bordering on outlier at times) compared to its ensemble suite

That last UKMO chart looks primed for that low over Iceland to dive across us or just to our east too. Not great

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
14 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep, some improvement but beware of the GFS - it is a warm run (bordering on outlier at times) compared to its ensemble suite

That last UKMO chart looks primed for that low over Iceland to dive across us or just to our east too. Not great

Shows how bad things have got when an abysmal summer run like the GFS is almost a warm outlier.

Hoping this ridging being shown for next week gains some traction to rescue us from this horrid summer month.

Let’s see if ECM is any better.

 

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
18 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep, some improvement but beware of the GFS - it is a warm run (bordering on outlier at times) compared to its ensemble suite

That last UKMO chart looks primed for that low over Iceland to dive across us or just to our east too. Not great

TBH I haven’t even been looking at the 850’s as the first step for me is seeing a rise in pressure, so I’ve been looking at the SLP means. The fact that the GFS has thrown out a warm run is actually a positive bonus as it hasn’t at all recently. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Shows how bad things have got when an abysmal summer run like the GFS is almost a warm outlier.

Hoping this ridging being shown for next week gains some traction to rescue us from this horrid summer month.

Let’s see if ECM is any better.

 

Well, it ain't been that bad IMBY. I haven't been out of shorts and t-shirt for pretty much all month!

But, yeah, this next 7 days looks grim. The weekend looks like October's coming

Edited by LRD
Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
Posted (edited)

I'm guessing the ECM 12z is a massive outlier as its...well....erm....summery by day 10.

Edited by JayAlmeida
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Looks like a half hearted attempt at Azores ridging coming up next week. A lot of dry weather, not overly warm but should feel pleasant. Probably a lot of cloud coming around the HP though.

Just now, JayAlmeida said:

I'm guessing the ECM 12z is a massive outlier as its well summery.

It’s not that summery. In relative talk it is, but there will most likely be a lot of cloud spilling around that HP from the Atlantic.

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: High pressure, snow + alll extremes of weather
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Heights lowering around Greenland. Jet moving north, high pressure slowly moving north east. Do we finally have lift off? 

Could contain:

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like a half hearted attempt at Azores ridging coming up next week. A lot of dry weather, not overly warm but should feel pleasant. Probably a lot of cloud coming around the HP though.

It’s not that summery. In relative talk it is, but there will most likely be a lot of cloud spilling around that HP from the Atlantic.

Compared to now i would say its definetly more summery than these on again off again old dudes prostate showers we currently have.

A.K.A The Hans Moleman pattern

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

So the latest run of the GFS is a warm outliner. You just couldn’t make it up. Yes next week looks slightly better. Especially further south. This weekend coming looks abysmal. Looks like something reminiscent of October rather than July. Further ahead looks like further bouts of low pressure coming in from the north west. With further bands of showers or longer spells of rain. Think if anyone has a break away in the U.K. in the next 10/14 days pack a rain coat and warm jumper. Roll on August to hopefully get back to something warmer and more settled. 

  • Like 1
  • Insightful 1
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