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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, JayAlmeida said:

Compared to now i would say its definetly more summery than these on again off again old dudes prostate showers we currently have.

A.K.A The Hans Moleman pattern

Distinctly bland is how I’d describe that ECM run.

Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Distinctly bland is how I’d describe that ECM run.

Lets agree to disagree then I'm pretty sure it'll be an outlier anyway.

Edited by JayAlmeida
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Lets agree to disagree then

It’s not open for interpretation really. Even on the D10 chart there’s a widespread weak precipitation signal…which likely denotes a lot of cloud. That’s what you’d expect on the NW flank of an Atlantic based HP.

Edited by CreweCold
Posted
  • Location: Dudley
  • Location: Dudley
Posted
1 minute ago, LRD said:

We've literally just had the warmest June on record haven't we mate?

Was warm in my neck of the woods from 9th June until 25th June. I can only say it as I see it. Soz.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Interesting to see if the ECM has support in its own ensemble suite

Wed onwards looks ok. Only 8 days away - what could possibly go wrong?

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

This ECM run should not be dismissed- there is a clear trend for an improvement next week now.

There won't be a heatwave but most of us would be happy with a few dry days with average temps. Particularly for the cricket in Manchester from Wednesday! Not bothered about temps at all at this stage.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, Scorcher said:

This ECM run should not be dismissed- there is a clear trend for an improvement next week now.

There won't be a heatwave but most of us would be happy with a few dry days with average temps. Particularly for the cricket in Manchester from Wednesday! Not bothered about temps at all at this stage.

Yep a lot more settled. I think that’s as far as we can surmise.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
Just now, Scorcher said:

This ECM run should not be dismissed- there is a clear trend for an improvement next week now.

There won't be a heatwave but most of us would be happy with a few dry days with average temps. Particularly for the cricket in Manchester from Wednesday! Not bothered about temps at all at this stage.

Yep, dry would be a success right now from where we're headed this next 5-7 days. England's cricketers need dry

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
11 minutes ago, JayAlmeida said:

Compared to now i would say its definetly more summery than these on again off again old dudes prostate showers we currently have.

A.K.A The Hans Moleman pattern

Agree. Considering the anomalies keep suggesting we’re going to have lower than average pressure next week it’s a positive. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Weather Preferences: Muy Caliente, Muy Soleado
  • Location: Liverpool
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

This ECM run should not be dismissed- there is a clear trend for an improvement next week now.

There won't be a heatwave but most of us would be happy with a few dry days with average temps. Particularly for the cricket in Manchester from Wednesday! Not bothered about temps at all at this stage.

That looks to me like the start of a bit of a ridge if the Low pressure to the North and East plays ball. Once that 10c isotherm comes in it will feel like a massive improvement compared to what this week has in store.

Especially for us in the North.

Edited by JayAlmeida
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
12 minutes ago, terrier said:

So the latest run of the GFS is a warm outliner. You just couldn’t make it up. Yes next week looks slightly better. Especially further south. This weekend coming looks abysmal. Looks like something reminiscent of October rather than July. Further ahead looks like further bouts of low pressure coming in from the north west. With further bands of showers or longer spells of rain. Think if anyone has a break away in the U.K. in the next 10/14 days pack a rain coat and warm jumper. Roll on August to hopefully get back to something warmer and more settled. 

Who cares what the latter stages of the run shows? It perplexes me when people get down about what the GFS shows at t300. Yes, this weekend is dire and next week looks better. That’s all that matters. 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
Just now, JayAlmeida said:

That looks to me like the start of a bit of a ridge if the Low pressure to the North and East plays ball. Once that 10c isotherm comes in it will feel like a massive improvement compared to what this week has in store.

It’s an evolving situation for sure. It’s entirely possible as we close in further to late July that we see the HP have increasing influence and thus warmer and sunnier weather on the ground.

We wait and see I guess.

1 minute ago, danm said:

Who cares what the latter stages of the run shows? It perplexes me when people get down about what the GFS shows at t300. Yes, this weekend is dire and next week looks better. That’s all that matters. 

Let’s not forget that this improving scenario was first shown well into FI

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It’s an evolving situation for sure. It’s entirely possible as we close in further to late July that we see the HP have increasing influence and thus warmer and sunnier weather on the ground.

We wait and see I guess.

Let’s not forget that this improving scenario was first shown well into FI

And, as much as the GFS gets stick, I'm sure it saw this upcoming period of low pressure dominance from quite a way off too

Edited by LRD
Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It’s an evolving situation for sure. It’s entirely possible as we close in further to late July that we see the HP have increasing influence and thus warmer and sunnier weather on the ground.

We wait and see I guess.

Let’s not forget that this improving scenario was first shown well into FI

Even when an improving picture is shown in deep FI, I take very little notice of it until it moves closer to the reliable and is a consistent signal. For example, the 40c heat last year was shown in deep FI but was repeated consistently and moved into the reliable. 

I don’t see a consistent signal either way in FI right now, so why stress about it. 

Edited by danm
Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

Great news here @danmin the sense that we lose the negative NAO which I believe has been one of the culprits of our current weather we are enduring.   

 

nao.gefs.sprd2.png

Edited by Addicks Fan 1981
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
31 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Great news here @danmin the sense that we lose the negative NAO which I believe has been one of the culprits of our current weather we are enduring.   

 

nao.gefs.sprd2.png

A warm/hot end of July, possibly similar to that of 2002?

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
38 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Great news here @danmin the sense that we lose the negative NAO which I believe has been one of the culprits of our current weather we are enduring.   

 

nao.gefs.sprd2.png

It’s only weakly positive though and by the very end it looks to have peaked with some members going back down again.

Longevity of any better spell is questionable at the moment.

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted
21 minutes ago, Don said:

A warm/hot end of July, possibly similar to that of 2002?

Not to say that can’t happen. But unfortunately they is nothing showing short term or longer term as things stand of a warm/hot end to July. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

The rise in heights and slp pushing in from the sw later next week has been advertised on plenty of runs over the past few days

but it’s also looked to be a transient signal for a few days rather than a solid settle down. low pressure to the north and ne and high to the sw and west looks the current favourite. The boundaries will dictate as ever and I’d expect to see some movement of those boundaries in any case. It could turn out to be fairly decent across a chunk of the country but then again ….

finally we have some eps clusters in the extended 

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The rise in heights and slp pushing in from the sw later next week has been advertised on plenty of runs over the past few days

but it’s also looked to be a transient signal for a few days rather than a solid settle down. low pressure to the north and ne and high to the sw and west looks the current favourite. The boundaries will dictate as ever and I’d expect to see some movement of those boundaries in any case. It could turn out to be fairly decent across a chunk of the country but then again ….

finally we have some eps clusters in the extended 

Yes the signal for high pressure moving in from the SW next week has been consistent for several days now. But yes it’s not particularly robust at the moment, so incursions of low pressure could still occur, especially further north. 

The positive is that the anomalies have shown continued negative anomalies even into next week, so this would be ahead of schedule. 

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

A slight step backwards on the ECM ensembles for D10-D15 today. The trough is a little slower to clear east on most members, meaning the Azores High penetrates a little less. However, still a good few members that successfully push heights through, so still a work in progress by the models.

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A slight step backwards on the ECM ensembles for D10-D15 today. The trough is a little slower to clear east on most members, meaning the Azores High penetrates a little less. However, still a good few members that successfully push heights through, so still a work in progress by the models.

D10 mean pressure anomaly-

image.thumb.gif.76f0aa6baa302bfbefb3a1787bd810cf.gif

Maybe the op was a slight outlier from the mean, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s wrong though.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

A slight step backwards on the ECM ensembles for D10-D15 today. The trough is a little slower to clear east on most members, meaning the Azores High penetrates a little less. However, still a good few members that successfully push heights through, so still a work in progress by the models.

Think Matt summarised it very well this morning in the sense that the AAM has now bottomed out and now should be on the rise.  Also the next downwelling kelvin wave will change the course of our weather.   

  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
  • Location: South Kyme, Lincolnshire
Posted

Evening all

a crumb of comfort from James peacock, his analysis for next week.

courtesy of twitter

 

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted
Just now, Lincs Observation said:

Evening all

a crumb of comfort from James peacock, his analysis for next week.

courtesy of twitter

 

I like him as he always provides an air of being objective, but mindful at the same time.  Effectively westerlies are going to be the thing which will be our best friend to get the jet stream back up north again.  Its amazing that we have the jet right over us currently, yet the CET for this month is 0.4 above the 61-90 average and 0.3 above the 81-10 average.   It appears to be a strange summer currently.    

  • Like 3
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