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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, stodge said:

And for those following the 18Z OP, it gets there without the spoiler LP.

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Perfect timing for my Birthday gamble this year to visit Scotland instead of a more obvious snowy location, (Scotland 850s 5⁰ colder than Iceland) though will have to find some elevation me thinks. Weather Gods certainly not ready to adjust their BST hourglasses yet but think I need to start doing the lottery 😉

Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map

Edited by geordiekev
  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Not bad for nearly April …

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  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Who is up for one last hurrah!!!

there have been hints of another colder shot in the models towards months end with some sort of Atlantic ridge/Greenland blocking

the latest anomalies

EPS/EPS clusters and NOAA at day ten

Could contain: Chart, Plot, PersonCould contain: Book, Comics, Publication814day_03.thumb.gif.f32956f334ca3c97792d4a75ca998aba.gif

after this though,...i do want some sun and warmth so that i can get out in the garden,don't want to have a cold spring that tenders/damages young plants etc.

 

That pesky limpet high pressure to the south these days!

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, dry and preferably hot. Snow is nice in the winter
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted

GFS 00z ensembles really are trending much colder from day 8 with some very strong agreement... looks like it's a serious possibility to have our third cold early April in a row (and fourth in five years), almost certainly wasted at this time of year.

Could contain: Chart

On a positive note in all of those years things tend to have settled before mid April - last year saw warmer settled weather by the 12th, 2021 swung to clear blue skies by the 15th and 2019 gave the west some serious early spring warmth from the 19th. So there is hope not too far away.

In the meantime if we do get a northerly outbreak around the 27th it certainly doesn't look too snowy.Could contain: Chart, Plot, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Nature, Outdoors, Rainforest, Tree, Vegetation

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
Posted

I agree probably wasted but can’t really compare as we seem incapable of this kind of synoptic in January and when on a rare occasion we do it still struggles to deliver or sustain. Even if by some miracle we managed 4” of snow here overnight early April it would be the best event here since late nov/dec 10. I am not suggesting that is going to happen though!

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
On 16/03/2023 at 09:40, mushymanrob said:

Nope, im not buying next week mild and unsettled theme - although its likely to start that way.
Both these charts and the EPS suggest the 528DAM contour is over Northern areas next week, centred on the 23rd. Thats a lot further South than the current GFS suggests. The chances of the GFS and ECMs current vision of a mild unsettled week isnt that sound IMHO. As you know, i back the anomalies any day over a more volatile operational run at that range.
So i expect another short lived cold blast later next week.
 

610day.03.gif

Well the timing might not have been accurate, but these charts hinted at a cold snap and thats now what the ops are suggesting... anomaly accuracy again... ? time will tell as its not happened yet!

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  • Like 4
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Don said:

I'm sure you would prefer to have a poor spring followed by a good summer, rather than the other way around though?  Long range models are pointing towards a hot and dry summer currently.

 

Yes, there does seem a signal for that.

16 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

This being my first full year here I am wondering, how often is the guidance from those models accurate?

I think any signal from the long range models for summer is much more tentative than in winter.  In winter, the models can get a sniff of major drivers like vortex strength and SSWs etc. and can give quite a strong signal sometimes.  In summer, those drivers aren’t there so any signal tends to be much more muted.

This year there is a small but possibly significant signal on all models for higher than average heights in the vicinity of the UK for the summer months, particularly ECM and CFS:

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In terms of analogues, it is hard to avoid looking at 2018 in my view.  Reasons - La Niña weakening to neutral, and a strong SSW occurring in mid February.  The details of the SSW event may be different, but the timescale for its effect should be similar given the strength of it, i.e. reaching to mid spring.  

Remembering the evolution in 2018, I would be looking to see the jet stream make a strong move north from mid-April, taking the flow SW-NE allowing the Azores high to ridge in.  2018 was a more sustained period of dry heat, rather than intense plumes, so I wonder if something similar will pan out this year.

 

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 6
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Northerly for 27th on gfs6z..

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...all the way from ..Alaska ??

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

Extended ecm perturbations showing lots of cold scenarios for the start of April. Some looking quite snowy at times too..

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted
2 hours ago, Chesil View said:

Extended ecm perturbations showing lots of cold scenarios for the start of April. Some looking quite snowy at times too..

I think most cold hunters have signed off for the winter, so it will probably snow now 🤦‍♂️

  • Like 8
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Not that it makes much difference to our weather, but it's interesting watching the subtropical air get flushed out of the Atlantic from the 22nd.

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  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
Posted
1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

I think most cold hunters have signed off for the winter, so it will probably snow now 🤦‍♂️

I am still  hoping for a major snow event that leads to decent accumulations- even if it only lasts a few hours.

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
Posted

Stonking GFS 12z for the end of March. Will most certainly be a major outlier but great eye candy nonetheless.

Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Chart, Plot, OutdoorsCould contain: Art, Modern Art, Graphics, Outdoors

 

Despite those 850s the surface temps would not be as high as you'd have thought due to the sunshine strength still at this time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted

Not expecting anything sooner 7d regarding spring warmth when looking at the GEFS members 

image.thumb.gif.5e2b90e59436ab0cef73d60336c7d49f.gif

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
Posted
50 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

Stonking GFS 12z for the end of March. Will most certainly be a major outlier but great eye candy nonetheless.

Could contain: Art, Modern Art, Chart, Plot, OutdoorsCould contain: Art, Modern Art, Graphics, Outdoors

 

Despite those 850s the surface temps would not be as high as you'd have thought due to the sunshine strength still at this time of year.

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As expected...😂

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted (edited)

Well i have seen some swings but hey..

Could contain: Chart

 

.Could contain: Chart

...that is just crazy from the 12z gfs...just makes you wonder what has the high res op seen to make such a dramatic change of direction..the ens keeping calm though..

Edited by minus10
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate. Elevation : Garbage
Posted
50 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

As expected...😂

Could contain: Chart

Just our luck that the big warm outlier verifies after none of the big cold outliers did all winter.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
Posted

Anyone remember the 40C that the GFS was the first to have a sniff at?.......

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)

Have been saying `bad words` a lot with the ECM op runs regarding outliers but the GFS op has deffo said hold my pint.

graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.67d9299da593c7e26097cbef84c9327c.gifgraphe_ens3g.thumb.gif.d042cd580f84a6a2bb0106b4f7f55265.gif

Edited by Stuie
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 hour ago, minus10 said:

...that is just crazy from the 12z gfs...just makes you wonder what has the high res op seen to make such a dramatic change of direction..the ens keeping calm though..

A ghost, maybe? 👻

Anyway, not really a solution that appears in the ECM clusters.  I think the direction of travel is actually towards a colder end to the month.  Here’s the clusters for T192-T240 and T264+

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Looks to be a signal to push up an Atlantic ridge, which may go on to develop a northerly flow, which in the case of cluster 2 in the extended looks quite potent.  One final hurrah for winter maybe for those further north…

  • Like 6
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