First thunderstorms to occur in?

[Sunny76]

Late May, or early June this year for me.

And another cluster around mid July like 2017.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am going for late June.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I am going for late June.

I have a feeling something close to June 1994 might happen. Coolish start, then turning very hot in the second half.

A thundery June with a number of thundery days and widespread storms similar to something like 1982 or one big storm event like June 24th 1994.

[SummerShower]

Ah the thought of plume season approaching, castellanus studding the sky, hairdryer easterly winds and deep booming thunder pushing in from the south...

I will go for around 27th May, at the breakdown of a 5 to 7 day hot spell (maybe a 30C this May as well?) 

[Freeze]

You mean widespread? As a few have popped off the last couple of days admittedly not this area. Id say late May ish around the 20th.

[Sunny76]

33 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

Ah the thought of plume season approaching, castellanus studding the sky, hairdryer easterly winds and deep booming thunder pushing in from the south...

I will go for around 27th May, at the breakdown of a 5 to 7 day hot spell (maybe a 30C this May as well?) 

I like the sound of that. Clear blue skies for about 5-7 days with unbroken sunshine and no clouds, but become increasingly hot and humid on the last day and nights going from cool and starry to warm and starry, cloudy and then very thundery. 

[Sunny76]

25 minutes ago, Freeze said:

You mean widespread? As a few have popped off the last couple of days admittedly not this area. Id say late May ish around the 20th.

I mean a larger area covered by one thunderstorm system, like the one on the 21st August 1987, June 24th 1994, late July 2013, July 2014, or even the June storms that happened on the day of the referendum in 2016.

Speaking of which, does anyone remember the referendum overnight storms of June 2016. It was definitely a classic overnight set of one storm after another where I was in west London.

Somehow it seems like a forgotten thundery event. 

[SummerShower]

3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I mean a larger area covered by one thunderstorm system, like the one on the 21st August 1987, June 24th 1994, late July 2013, July 2014, or even the June storms that happened on the day of the referendum in 2016.

Speaking of which, does anyone remember the referendum overnight storms of June 2016. It was definitely a classic overnight set of one storm after another where I was in west London.

Somehow it seems like a forgotten thundery event. 

Yes I remember that.  We were on the western edge of that system and the thunderstorm was only a minor one here.  I think nearby Farnborough recorded the highest rainfall though.  

I think this was very similar in terms of intensity and area affected to 20th July 1992, another one from my childhood 

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, SummerShower said:

Yes I remember that.  We were on the western edge of that system and the thunderstorm was only a minor one here.  I think nearby Farnborough recorded the highest rainfall though.  

I think this was very similar in terms of intensity and area affected to 20th July 1992, another one from my childhood 

Oh yeah. I remember the July 1992 thunderstorms, and a news item was shown where Big Ben was almost struck by lightning.

That was at the tail end of a hot spell in early to mid July 92, when temps were in the high 20s. We spent the day at Dreamland Ben Bon Brothers Margate, but as we travelled back to London, the sky turned much darker as we moved away from the coast and inland towards London. It was almost dark at 6:30pm, so it must have been a part supercell.

We got hit by a number of storms in spring and summer of 92.

[Snowyowl9]

If it was spring 1996 it would be May 1st on a cold day of just 6c..

[SummerShower]

33 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

If it was spring 1996 it would be May 1st on a cold day of just 6c..

I think the awful cold may of 1996 is what made those storms on the 7th of June really severe.  Very hot air moving over what would have been a very cold english channel.

[matt111]

I’ll say late May. Not that uncommon here but not what I’d call a frequent occurrence either. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Would have probably gone for May too. But as a totally random guess, will go for April 17th at 5:33pm. To occur over Somerset.

[Eagle Eye]

Had one in January so can't complain.

[Sunny76]

I’ll update this and say it will be early July. Think it’s going to take some time before we get some decent storms this year. First week of July, and on a Sunday night, with overnight and early morning storms into Monday.

[cheese]

Last year we didn’t get a thunderstorm until September. 2022 was a very poor year for thunder locally despite all the hot weather - can’t speak for the country as a whole.

Hopefully this year is better.

Edited March 31, 2023 by cheese

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

Last year we didn’t get a thunderstorm until September. 2022 was a very poor year for thunder locally despite all the hot weather - can’t speak for the country as a whole.

Hopefully this year is better.

We did get them but it was towards the end of august and only localised storms. 

[Summer8906]

I guess we're talking about summer-style storms in warm or hot weather.

I'll go for some point in May, let's say mid month. Seems May/June are more thundery than July/Aug these days.

[SummerShower]

1 minute ago, Summer8906 said:

I guess we're talking about summer-style storms in warm or hot weather.

I'll go for some point in May, let's say mid month. Seems May/June are more thundery than July/Aug these days.

Fingers crossed that may is like 1992 or 2018 and first storms we get are around 27th, and very widespread coming from a plume

[Sunny76]

2 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I guess we're talking about summer-style storms in warm or hot weather.

I'll go for some point in May, let's say mid month. Seems May/June are more thundery than July/Aug these days.

Yes that is the question at hand, not some random rumble of thunder in January.

The May to August period, or early September at a push. 

1 minute ago, SummerShower said:

Fingers crossed that may is like 1992 or 2018 and first storms we get are around 27th, and very widespread coming from a plume

Most people seem to be going for late May this time. 

[Sunny76]

And let’s make it more interesting. What day and what kind of storm will it be.

A daytime one? early evening into night time one? or an overnight storm? Or a combination of evening into night/overnight?

[SummerShower]

7 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

And let’s make it more interesting. What day and what kind of storm will it be.

A daytime one? early evening into night time one? or an overnight storm? Or a combination of evening into night/overnight?

27th May overnight into 28th.  A massive MCS moves up from France, hitting the south coast at 11pm reaching inland 2 hours later.  Lots of CGs with local flooding too.  28C temps to occur before this

[Sunny76]

39 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

27th May overnight into 28th.  A massive MCS moves up from France, hitting the south coast at 11pm reaching inland 2 hours later.  Lots of CGs with local flooding too.  28C temps to occur before this

That would place it happening around Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

I’m going to be a bit sleep deprived for my Sunday security job if your prediction does happen lol. 
 

I like the idea of a build up to the storms. A 5-7 day warm to hot spell, starting on the previous weekend around 20th, with clear blue sky days and still a dry heat feel with light winds. Turning more hot and humid towards the 26th-27th before the storms hit. 

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

And let’s make it more interesting. What day and what kind of storm will it be.

A daytime one? early evening into night time one? or an overnight storm? Or a combination of evening into night/overnight?

I would say a typical May synoptic with low pressure over France. Easterlies with high pressure over Scotland.

Weather warm, but not hot, over southern England. Perhaps a max around 24C for several days before.

Air becomes more humid as the low moves closer to southern England, producing some evening storms (just after dark) with dramatic lightning and torrential rainfall.

After the storms, a cool NE-ly sets in with the low migrating eastward before it gets warmer again. We "pay" for the storms as the following day is unseasonably cool and dull with a max of just 12C. May, overall, is in fact notably easterly: starts slightly cool before becoming warm in the 2nd week,  before said storms occur around the 17th/18th. After a short cool spell there's then a further warm thundery spell to end the month, this time taking the form of locally-generated daytime storms rather than organised activity, but these are dramatic if you catch one and the Cbs will be clearly visible from many miles away in otherwise clear skies. The month's max temp of 27C occurs during this latter spell.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Summer8906

[Sunny76]

6 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I would say a typical May synoptic with low pressure over France. Easterlies with high pressure over Scotland.

Weather warm, but not hot, over southern England. Perhaps a max around 24C for several days before.

Air becomes more humid as the low moves closer to southern England, producing some evening storms (just after dark) with dramatic lightning and torrential rainfall.

After the storms, a cool NE-ly sets in with the low migrating eastward before it gets warmer again. We "pay" for the storms as the following day is unseasonably cool and dull with a max of just 12C. May, overall, is in fact notably easterly: starts slightly cool before becoming warm in the 2nd week,  before said storms occur around the 17th/18th. After a short cool spell there's then a further warm thundery spell to end the month, this time taking the form of locally-generated daytime storms rather than organised activity, but these are dramatic if you catch one and the Cbs will be clearly visible from many miles away in otherwise clear skies. The month's max temp of 27C occurs during this latter spell.

Well, we have at least 6-8 weeks to go before this possibly happens.

With the atmosphere still pretty chilly from winter 22/23, wouldn’t this present a better chance of storm activity moving into May?

2018 was quite similar, with cold weather lingering into April, before turning much warmer during the second half, and then the long warm sunny period of May 2018.