April 2023 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Roger J Smith]

April CET statistics 

__ the most recent 42 values are shown in three groups (13,14,15 as three tied 14th and 28th warmest) -- bold is warmest, italic medium values, underlined coolest)

__ the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages are in bold italics. All data now v2.0 CET. Ties in one decimal, 2020 ranked 4th, 1943 5th in two decimals.

__ 1798 changed from 10.4 to 10.3 despite no changes in daily values, the reason appears to be rounding from 10.35. There are a few other such months in the period 1772 to 1852 where daily values are not changed in v2.0. 1798 is still sixth in two decimals anyway. 

19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)

11.9 ... warmest April (2011)

11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)

10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)

10.5 ... tied 4th warmest April (2020) and 1943 (5th in 2 decimals)

10.3 ... t6th warmest Aprils (tied 1798, 1893, 1987, 2014) (order 6, 8, 9, 7 in two decimals)

10.2 ... t10th warmest 1794, 1796, 1944 (order 12, 11, 10 in two decimals)

10.1 ... t13th warmest 1783, 1869, 1945 (order 15, 13, 14 in two decimals)

10.0 ... 16th warmest Aprils (seven tied, including 2009) which is 16th in two decimals

 9.9 ... 2018

 9.6 ... 2003

 9.4 ... 1993, 1999, 2004

 9.3 ... 2002

 9.2 ... 2022

 9.1 ... 1995, 2015, 2019 ... ... also average 2001-2022 (9.06).

 9.0 ... average for 1991-2020 (8.97) ...1997 ... also mean for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) ... 1991-2020 is also highest 30-year average

 8.9 ...  2005, 2010, 2017  and average for 1993-2022 (8.94) 

 8.7 ... 1992

 8.6 ... 1982, 1996, 2006

 8.5 ... average for 1981-2010 

 8.3 ... 1985

 8.2 ... 1988

 8.1 ... 1984 ... and average for 1971-2000 (8.06) (and 20th century 1901-2000) (8.05)

 8.0 ... 1990, 1994, 2008 ... also average for all data 1659-2022 (7.953)  

 7.9 ... 1991 ... average for 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 (7.907) and 19th century 1801-1900 (7.947)

 7.8 ... 1981

 7.7 ... 1998, 2000, 2001 

 7.5 ... 2013, 2016 

 7.3 ... 2012 ... and average for 1659-1700

 7.0 ... lowest 30-yr average for April (6.96 1673-1702)

 6.8 ... 1983

 6.6 ... 1989

 6.5 ... 2021 tied 40th coldest (placed 49th in two decimals), and second coldest since 1941 (6.4)

 5.8 ... 1986 tied 18th coldest and coldest since 1922

 5.7 ... 16th coldest (tied) 1784 and 1879

 5.5 ... ninth coldest (tied) - 1922 with six other years (1922 placed coldest of them at 9th in two decimals)

 5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799

 5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809

 4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

--0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)

--0.4 ... coldest April daily mean since 1799 (2nd 1917)

--0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (3rd, 1799) 

_________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast for APRIL 2023 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Friday 31st March)

... or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

 

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ================================================= _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

EWP contest for April 2023

The data set in use for the contest (Hadley EWP) with data from 1766 to 2022.

Contest is based on a prediction of April precip in mm. These are the record and average values:

149.9 __ 2012 __ wettest 1766 to 2022 

142.6 __ 2000 __ 2nd wettest 

139.0 __ 1782 __ was the record until 2000 (now third wettest)

135.6 __ 1818 __ was 2nd wettest until 2000 (now fourth wettest)

130.9 __ 1998 __ went from 3rd to 4th to 5th wettest April within 14 years.

 64.8 __ average 1981-2010

 63.2 __ average 1991-2020

 59.8 __ average 1993-2022

 58.5 __ average all data 1766 to 2022

 10.4 __ 2007 __ driest in 1981-2022 period (1984 was 10.7 and 2011 was 11.6)

 07.1 __ 1938 __ driest 1766 to 2022 

 

recent April EWP values ...

2022_31.0 mm, 2021_13.5 mm, 2020_35.7 mm, 2019_45.9 mm, 2018 _ 91.4 mm, 2017 _ 19.9 mm, 2016 _ 73.3 mm,

2015 _ 28.1 mm, 2014 _ 63.8 mm, 2013_ 34.7 mm, 2012_ 149.9 mm, 2011_ 11.6 mm, 2010_ 30.1 mm, 2009_ 48.0 mm.

____________________________________ ^ ___________________________________

Enter this contest by the same deadline, 10.0 points for closest forecast, 0.3 penalty points per day late (first three days of April).

You can add your EWP forecast to your CET temperature forecast. 

[Stationary Front]

9.8 please with 86mm 

[Bobd29]

9.2C and 69mm please.

[chilly milly]

8.0c and 62mm please.

[Frigid]

8.4C and 90mm. Thanks 

[Weather26]

8.8C and 71mm please.

Edited March 20, 2023 by Weather26

[Dancerwithwings]

8.9c & 81mm

[Earthshine]

9.9C and 35mm

[Summer18]

9.3 and 66mm 

[summer blizzard]

9.4C, 29mm.

Settled with a mean high west of the UK but with a hotter spell late in the month.

[Methuselah]

9.5C and 65mm, please, Roger.

[feb1991blizzard]

10.4c & 59mm please.

[Typhoon John]

9.8c please

[SummerShower]

8.9C  and 78mm

A changeable month.  A couple of northerly shots, but a warm spell mid to late month, and a couple of slow moving lows lasting a week each, giving many days of sunshine and showers.  Quite sunny

[virtualsphere]

8.7C and 92mm please

[Wold Topper]

9.3°c and 61mm please,

[LetItSnow!]

Holding off for a little closer to the month but feeling a cool-ish to average April for temperature but going to the very wet to record wet territory. How much depends on the outlook closer to the time. If it starts to look drier then maybe to more slightly above average levels. 

[Metwatch]

9.8⁰C and 33mm

[BlueHedgehog074]

8.5*C and 85mm of precipitation, please. 

A chance it may start unsettled, but hoping eventually High Pressure will take down the darn Atlantic Lows and reign supremacy over the UK. A mixture of cold, cool and warm spells. 

 

[Shillitocettwo]

A real shocker at only 6.7.C!

 

Starting off average and wet, however a protracted run of Northerly winds will pull the second half down significantly, with a very unseasonable snow event as a large Atlantic Low piles into subzero air creating a nasty leading edge of heavy snow, creating school closures around the 25th April!! Some damaging frosts late month, Gardners beware. Wet at 104mm. 

[Summer8906]

8.0 and 70mm, thanks.

A changeable month, very slightly colder and wetter than average, but not nearly so dull nor so wet as March. In contrast to March, northerlies and easterlies quite frequent I suspect. Sunshine not asked for, but I'm going for very slightly below average - but not enough to be notably dull.

Perhaps in the same ball-park as months such as 2008 or 2016.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Summer8906

[Leo97t]

8.8mm and 65mm

[SteveB]

8.4 and 136mm please. 

[The PIT]

Going for 9C and 60mm of rain.

[hillbilly]

Interesting that every 80s April except 1987 is colder than the last 20 year average.