First 20 and 25 degrees temps - Spring 2023

[damianslaw]

Surprised such a thread hasn't emerged as yet..

The calandar says first day of Spring today, whilst meterologically it started on 1 March, I always think Spring doesn't really get going until the Equinox, especially in the northern half of the UK. 

A slow start to Spring here, indeed feels still very much winter, but the clocks going forward on Sunday will even if the weather doesn't say so, bring Spring on markedly.

In some years March can deliver the first 20 degrees (exceptionally so here, but not so exceptionally further south). On rare exceptions 25 degrees has been recorded in March.

Not sure what the current high maxima of the year is, I think about 18 degrees, someone correct me.

Nothing overly mild in the outlook, but won't be long probably before somewhere records a 20 degrees.

Use this thread speculate/predict where and when the 20 and 25 degree temp will be reached, and also use it to record when you hit the magic 20 and 25 degrees.

In some years we've had to wait until June for the first 25 degrees, in some summers, it has been our highest max!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised such a thread hasn't emerged as yet..

I started a 'First 20°C of the year' thread a couple of months back. But ah well, this one is better anyway as it is also about 25°C and has a more detailed opening.  

I had and still have a feeling that our first 20°C day will be late this year. I am going for 30th April with a few warmish days (late teens) leading up to it. There will then be a warm spell at some point in May (more often than not there is). I am going for 21st May for our first 25°C day. 

Edited March 20, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[CoventryWeather]

First 20 degrees, early April (probably the 5/6th). First 25 degrees, maybe mid/latter April (around 18-20th). 

Considering we've had a very wet march, I feel next month will be very dry and warm. 

Still going for a very hot summer, albeit a wetter than average one. Have a feeling we'll hit the 40s again this year.

Feel free to argue about this most likely that it is not going to happen. 

 

[SunSean]

I'm gonna go for the first 20 degrees of the year to come at some point in late April (21st-30th) and 25 to come in early May (1st-10th). I can see the first 2 thirds of April continuing with this garbage SSW affected grey sky Hell-topia, although not quite as bad as March (Couldn't possibly be any worse anyway) but see things really picking up from around late April and in to a 2018 redux style May & Summer. I'm probably wrong but I have a feeling at least lol. Hopefully it comes to fruition!

[Metwatch]

First 20c - April 7th

First 25c - April 19th

First 30c - May 24th

[matt111]

First 20°C mid-late April, first 25°C mid-May

[Guest]

First 20C - 7th April

First 25C - 10th April 

First 30C - 31st May

First 35C - 8th July 

No 40C 

[Summer8906]

I think there was a previous thread, some months ago, but I guess we know more about how it's panning out now.

I was going for quite a cold April, as the models were showing a battleground scenario for the second half of March until recently (wet, but alternating cold and mild rather than constantly mild) however we now seem to be locked into a mild pattern, so I'm less certain about April being cold now. However I think it'll be a while until it gets properly warm, I suspect: so let's go with April 18th for the first 20C.

First 25C will probably be about average, let's say May 15th.

I also see 30C and 35C being mentioned, so let's say:

30C on June 10th, during a warm and sunny June.

35C on July 20th, for two days only in a generally cool, cloudy month.

Agree no 40C, don't think that'll happen again for quite a while.

Edited March 21, 2023 by Summer8906

[Sunny76]

20 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

First 20 degrees, early April (probably the 5/6th). First 25 degrees, maybe mid/latter April (around 18-20th). 

Considering we've had a very wet march, I feel next month will be very dry and warm. 

Still going for a very hot summer, albeit a wetter than average one. Have a feeling we'll hit the 40s again this year.

Feel free to argue about this most likely that it is not going to happen. 

 

It won’t touch 32c this year. Have a feeling it’s going to be a disappointing 30c for a few days and that’s that.

 

As for the first 20c, I think sometime around or shortly after Easter. Maybe 10th -12th April.

I feel it’s going to take a while before we reach 25c, so my guess is the last 3rd of May. Maybe around the 22nd or 23rd May, then it will turn hot and sunny for a few days with 27-28c quite widespread.

59 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I think there was a previous thread, some months ago, but I guess we know more about how it's panning out now.

I was going for quite a cold April, as the models were showing a battleground scenario for the second half of March until recently (wet, but alternating cold and mild rather than constantly mild) however we now seem to be locked into a mild pattern, so I'm less certain about April being cold now. However I think it'll be a while until it gets properly warm, I suspect: so let's go with April 18th for the first 20C.

First 25C will probably be about average, let's say May 15th.

I also see 30C and 35C being mentioned, so let's say:

30C on June 10th, during a warm and sunny June.

35C on July 20th, for two days only in a generally cool, cloudy month.

Agree no 40C, don't think that'll happen again for quite a while.

A poor summer then, with only a few bursts of hot sunny weather in an otherwise cloudy summer maybe?

[SummerShower]

First 20C - Easter Monday 10th April

First 25C - 17thMay

First 30C - 24th May 

It's interesting to see quite a few mentions of 35C.  It's becoming expected isn't it now given that it's happened most years since 2015.  Statistically though, the odds are that it most likely won't happen.  Before 2015 it happened around 1 year in 10, or thereabouts.

[Guest]

GFS 12Z brings in the first 20C next week now. Decent support in the ensembles. 
 

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

It won’t touch 32c this year. Have a feeling it’s going to be a disappointing 30c for a few days and that’s that.

 

As for the first 20c, I think sometime around or shortly after Easter. Maybe 10th -12th April.

I feel it’s going to take a while before we reach 25c, so my guess is the last 3rd of May. Maybe around the 22nd or 23rd May, then it will turn hot and sunny for a few days with 27-28c quite widespread.

A poor summer then, with only a few bursts of hot sunny weather in an otherwise cloudy summer maybe?

My gut feeling is for a return to the 2007-21 norm, so a rather cloudy summer, coolish days, mild nights, and some short bursts of intense heat. Rainfall a little above average but not drastically.

That being said, I am fancying a good June this year, because it's now been a while since we've had a really settled, sunny June.

This is why I'm getting increasingly worried about this unsettled spell dragging on, and on deep into spring, as GFS12Z is suggesting. We need a window of fine, warm weather soon!

Edited March 21, 2023 by Summer8906

[Sunny76]

38 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

First 20C - Easter Monday 10th April

First 25C - 17thMay

First 30C - 24th May 

It's interesting to see quite a few mentions of 35C.  It's becoming expected isn't it now given that it's happened most years since 2015.  Statistically though, the odds are that it most likely won't happen.  Before 2015 it happened around 1 year in 10, or thereabouts.

Yeah, I remember when hitting 34c was still a wow moment back in 2013, and that was after a number of poor summers during the late 2000s when summer maxes were 30-32c.

I would say it’s become more noticeable since the summer of 2018, and longer hot sunny spells seemed to creep in. July 2019, August 2020, and of course the summer of 2022.

[Earthshine]

Potential for a warm spell late March early April.  A few warm runs appearing.

[Metwatch]

49 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 12Z brings in the first 20C next week now. Decent support in the ensembles. 
 

Indeed, a few members flirting with that 20c barrier now into the very end of March/early April. 

At the moment wouldn't say its that likely but can never underestimate southerlies popping up now with the stronger sun making those temperatures shoot up. 

[damianslaw]

21 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Indeed, a few members flirting with that 20c barrier now into the very end of March/early April. 

At the moment wouldn't say its that likely but can never underestimate southerlies popping up now with the stronger sun making those temperatures shoot up. 

Yes hints we may drag in some warmer uppers before the month is out thanks to a more pronounced ridge building in from the south with a long draw southerly/south westerly. We are seeing very respectable maxes in the mid teens currently under what aren't especially mild uppers or a long fetch south westerly, importantly also with little sunshine. A burst of sunshine by late March in similiar synoptics would easily allow temps to nudge 20 degrees in southern parts.

[Frigid]

First 20C - 30th March

First 25C - 16th May

First 30C - June 13th 

First 35C - July 12th

40C seems very unlikely, the July 2022 event had everything fall into place perfectly, albeit the strong winds mitigated the absolute max this country could face. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I have a feeling that 35°C won't be reached anywhere this summer. My gut feeling is for a fairly standard British summer this year - mainly benign temps with the odd heatwave thrown in along with a thunderstorm or two. 

Edited March 21, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Jamie M]

First 20C - April 5th

First 25C - May 10th

First 30C - June 19th

[Rain All Night]

I just looked up the last ten dates for the first 20C at Bournemouth Airport, which were (starting with 2013):

May 31st, May 17th, April 15th, May 6th, May 23rd (19.8 on May 11th), April 18th, April 18th (again), April 8th, May 29th (19.9 on March 30th!), May 5th

I have to say these dates are later than I'd imagined in my "Head FI". Owing to the bias that this March has given to my thinking, I'm going to say that the first 20C down here will be on the later side this year, in the middle third of May I'll say. I hope to be proven pessimistic there of course!

Speaking of 20C, in the same data that I used to make the list above (downloaded from Meteostat.net), I found that Bournemouth Airport has apparently never recorded an official "tropical night" of 20C, with minima of 19C or above recorded only four times since the dataset begins in 1973: 19.0 in July 1989, 19.5 and 19.8 in August 2003, and 19.2 in July 2018.

Edited March 28, 2023 by RainAllNight

[SummerShower]

20 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I just looked up the last ten dates for the first 20C at Bournemouth Airport, which were (starting with 2013):

May 31st, May 17th, April 15th, May 6th, May 23rd (19.8 on May 11th), April 18th, April 18th (again), April 8th, May 29th (19.9 on March 30th!), May 5th

I have to say these dates are later than I'd imagined in my "Head FI". Owing to the bias that this March has given to my thinking, I'm going to say that the first 20C down here will be on the later side this year, in the middle third of May I'll say. I hope to be proven pessimistic there of course!

Speaking of 20C, in the same data that I used to make the list above (downloaded from Meteostat.net), I found that Bournemouth Airport has apparently never recorded an official "tropical night" of 20C, with minima of 19C or above recorded only four times since the dataset begins in 1973: once in July 1989, twice in August 2003, and once in July 2018.

Quite surprising it didn't stay above 20C on 18/19 July.  Coastal areas are generally warmer, but is Bournemouth Airport the same as Hurn, which is a local frost hollow?

[Rain All Night]

15 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

Quite surprising it didn't stay above 20C on 18/19 July.  Coastal areas are generally warmer, but is Bournemouth Airport the same as Hurn, which is a local frost hollow?

Hmm, looking at the ECM reanalysis charts for that night, it does seem a little dubious... but yes, Bournemouth Airport is Hurn.

Edited March 28, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Mapantz]

The lows here on July 18th/19th were 13.3°C and 17.9°C

Edited March 28, 2023 by Mapantz

[reef]

We dropped to 17.6C and 17.1C on those days too in July 2022.

Summer 2022 was unusual here in that mean minima were only 0.2C above the 1991-2020 average.

As for the first 20C, its usually April or May here. Before 2011, it had only happened on 15 individual days in 31 years before 1st May. It has happened 16 times in the 12 years since so it is becoming more frequent but is still quite uncommon.

Although further south it is often easier to achieve, its easy to forget March and April are still the 4th and 6th coldest months in the UK. Even in a warmer area like Heathrow, the average max temp doesn't hit 20C until late-May/early-June. In mid-April 20C it's still 5C above average.

Edited March 29, 2023 by reef

[Frigid]

Manchester Airport recorded a low of 21C on the 19th July, think this is the highest Tmin on record. It was actually forecasted to be as low as 25C..distinctly remember the Met going for a low of 27C. That would've been mad. Other occasions similar to this would be July 20th 2016 (19C).

Back on topic, looks like my 20C forecast is a bust. Will probably see it happen sometime in April, possibly final week.