Arctic sea Ice Discussion 2023-2024

[Geordiesnow]

20 hours ago, Don said:

So an extended melt season expected then?  Could we be looking at early October before the re-freeze starts this year?  Not sure what the current latest minimum date is?

I don't think it will be the latest minimum on record( the latest was in 1995 on the 30th September) but maybe like Grey Wolf says, don't expect any rapid rises early on if these temperatures are refusing to drop or we constantly get winds compacting the ice pack.

As it happens, if the weather does end up playing ball, refreeze could be fast on the Siberian side as SSTS are nothing too remarkable(compared to 2020 for example) but as we see more and more during early to mid September, the PV is struggling to develop so the cold is struggling to form hence we are still seeing area losses which is now officially at least 3rd lowest minimum on record which is remarkable really.

It does look like things are going to become more slacker and the cold trying to develop but only really on the Atlantic side and over the CAB, still looking way above average on the Pacific side.

[Methuselah]

An interesting article: 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

As the NSIDC measure for 'Ice Area' drops into "2nd Lowest for date" one has to wonder just how 'LOW' "Area" can go?......

Should re-freeze be 'delayed/slow' this year, due to Planetary/Oceanic heat (combined with a growing 'Nino'?), we could see 'Arctic Ice area' at the number '1' Lowest by Mid-October.

A 'Poor' re-freeze (like we've just seen over the 'Southern Winter'?) will leave the ice in pooe shape to face a 'Nino' (& the rest!!!) Summer in 24'....B.O.E. might be the result with the MASSIVE climate hit such would cause.....

Interesting tomes eh?

Edited September 15, 2023 by Gray-Wolf

[Geordiesnow]

9 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

As the NSIDC measure for 'Ice Area' drops into "2nd Lowest for date" one has to wonder just how 'LOW' "Area" can go?......

Should re-freeze be 'delayed/slow' this year, due to Planetary/Oceanic heat (combined with a growing 'Nino'?), we could see 'Arctic Ice area' at the number '1' Lowest by Mid-October.

A 'Poor' re-freeze (like we've just seen over the 'Southern Winter'?) will leave the ice in pooe shape to face a 'Nino' (& the rest!!!) Summer in 24'....B.O.E. might be the result with the MASSIVE climate hit such would cause.....

Interesting tomes eh?

I think the fact on the bremen ice chart we got low concentration at high latitudes just tells you, it is NOT cold up there at all and if anything, the situation does not look like improving at all. 

Looking at worldview, tells it's own story really, lots of cloud, the ice is hardly white(compared to the last couple of years) and well this could be a game changer because whilst extent is not the lowest I don't think I've seen the ice at this stage in September looking as poor as this. 2020 was slow but the main reason why extent was so low then was because of the lack of Atlantic ice. I actually thought refreeze could be fairly quick this year across the Siberian arctic but the fact the PV is so weak(850 temperatures are just not dropping anywhere near enough), I'm not so sure now.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well our 'Summer weather (in the N.H.?) appeared to be a continuation of what the South saw over their Summer so will the S.H. 'Winter' also be a guide for what we ought to expect over our Winter?

If we do have a slow/interrupted 're-freeze' then I think we need worry about what the Nino Summer of 24', & the melt season it will influence, will bring us?

I think it's enough to say it's been a bonkers 6 months across both Land & Ocean in our Hemisphere & that it is doubly difficult to imagine just 'What' the culmination of it all will be

[Geordiesnow]

I just keep looking at the output charts GW and can't help but be baffled, concerned and quite saddened at what we are seeing here. 

We are just not cooling down at all, the models want to cool down but the reality is, we are not and it's all very very slow. I just can't see where any initial refreeze is coming from, even temperatures above the icepack are so poor for the time of year. Whilst SSTS over the Arctic are nothing too exceptional(apart from the Kara) we all know about the Atlantic SSTS and is that now playing a role at just how above average we are globally.

It's interesting but concerning. Btw the cold lovers on here probably can kiss goodbye to a cold winter if this continues, if we can't get the PV forming over the poles properly then everything will be diluted even come wintertime. 

[stewfox]

No debate over the Artic this winter. Guess as no surprises.

[daz_4]

Arctic ice is not having a good time this summer. As per NSIDC, the sea ice area is record low at the moment and extent 3rd lowest.

[Shaunado]

How Soon Might the Atlantic Ocean Break? Two Sibling Scientists Found an Answer—and Shook the World | WIRED

WWW.WIRED.COM

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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is like a huge heat pump, taking water from the tropics to the north, warming areas in Europe...

 

Hey, probably not the best thread for this, but it is quite an interesting behind-the-scenes look at the people who wrote a paper in 2023 about a potential AMOC collapse this century.

[reef]

It's been quiet on this thread, but it's looking like we could go quite low this year on the Arctic sea ice extent. On NSIDC we're below every year now except 2012, 2019 and 2020 and will pass 2020 in the next day or two. The main body of remaining ice that is vulnerable in the East Siberian and Chukchi seas looks very fragmented and will take a battering soon as low after low is shown to hit this area on the models. The ice in this area looks pretty poor all the way to the pole, so with a month or so to go until the minimum, there could be some big losses here. In the mean time, there is heat forecast over the Canadian Arctic (>15C 850hPa) in the next few days which will probably melt what is left up there.

Could we equal or beat 2012? It's at least looking possible at the moment.

[Don]

6 hours ago, reef said:

Could we equal or beat 2012? It's at least looking possible at the moment.

I guess it's going to happen sooner or later?!

[stewfox]

What date was the min ?

[sundog]

 stewfox

[Methuselah]

Here's an interesting video related to this year's Arctic sea ice minimum. IMO, ice volume is more important than extent: 

 

[raz.org.rain]

 Shaunado worth clarifying that we're unlikely to see a substantial reglaciation in response to hypothetical AMOC collapse if we see any at all. Accounting for carbon analogs and present atmospheric conditions it's substantially more likely that it'll accelerate warming trends and exacerbate an ice age termination.