Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

[Supacell]

Here is a brand new thread for all your UK storms and convective weather posts for June. We are going to be trialling a different method, with a storms thread for each month during the convective season to see how it goes.

After a rather stormy first half to May the second half became very dry with some parts having now seen no rain at all for 3 weeks. In the near future there are no storms or rain on the horizon with dry weather guaranteed for at least the next 5 days. Longer range forecasts do point to the chance of more storms as we head towards mid June. Eventually the pattern we are in has to break and we'll have something to talk about in here again.

So, carry on and let's hope for some convective weather for those who want it. 

Old thread here

 

Edited June 1, 2023 by Supacell

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Needles to say this is the week to backup your phone/camera and get the memory clear for the next convective event

[ChannelThunder]

8 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Needles to say this is the week to backup your phone/camera and get the memory clear for the next convective event

The rate it's going on the models, that might well be 'month' rather than week!

[LightningLover]

Quietest start to a convective season I can remember for a long time... Up to June with only 1 very weak event!

[Sunny76]

I’m still confident we will see something more widespread and longer lasting. With all this colder air lingering into early summer, once we get some heat mixed in, thunderstorms are more than likely to pop up. 
 

Getting the feeling it might be later into the summer before we actually get a proper thunderstorm. Mid August maybe?

[Thunders]

4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I’m still confident we will see something more widespread and longer lasting. With all this colder air lingering into early summer, once we get some heat mixed in, thunderstorms are more than likely to pop up. 
 

Getting the feeling it might be later into the summer before we actually get a proper thunderstorm. Mid August maybe?

hoping we see some nice ones later this year. especially at night. the south east has been awfully quiet for this time of year

Edited June 2, 2023 by Thunders

[Sunny76]

1 minute ago, Thunders said:

hoping we see some nice ones later this year. especially at night.

I want a late evening one as the daylight fades, and an overnight one. It’s going to happen at some point.

[Thunders]

Just now, Sunny76 said:

I want a late evening one as the daylight fades, and an overnight one. It’s going to happen at some point.

yes, especially one with large bolts of lightning 

[Turquoise]

latest models suggest nothing convective for at a least another month, even then it would be just the south that gets anything. Unless anything changes could be yet another very disappointing summer up here for storms, the last time we had thunder here was August 2020.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Thunders said:

yes, especially one with large bolts of lightning 

You need to be specific - if those bolts are rain-wrapped it doesn’t matter how large they are. I want some big anvil crawlers on a large isolated storm to the north west of here (best view). If it sparks up at about 8pm so there’s little traffic about and you get good visibility of the flashes then that would be

[ChannelThunder]

18 hours ago, Azuremoon2 said:

latest models suggest nothing convective for at a least another month, even then it would be just the south that gets anything. Unless anything changes could be yet another very disappointing summer up here for storms, the last time we had thunder here was August 2020.

You might want to look again! ECM, GEM, GFS and UKMO now all in agreement of a cut-off Biscay low going into next weekend. Things have turned massively in our favour over the last 24 hours.

[Turquoise]

5 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

You might want to look again! ECM, GEM, GFS and UKMO now all in agreement of a cut-off Biscay low going into next weekend. Things have turned massively in our favour over the last 24 hours.

Down south. Nothing up our way as per.

[ChannelThunder]

24 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

Down south. Nothing up our way as per.

You never know! Far too early to know how far north things will push. Getting the right synoptics in first is the big hurdle, and if the models are right, we'll be taking a big step in that direction

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

You never know! Far too early to know how far north things will push. Getting the right synoptics in first is the big hurdle, and if the models are right, we'll be taking a big step in that direction

I hope it’s not another bust, and the storms do actually happen. 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Looking very interesting regarding next weekend as the models seem to have shifted suddenly. If there is a biscay low it would be pushing up a lot of warm and unstable air as seen this week in southern europe ️️

[ANYWEATHER]

22 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Looking very interesting regarding next weekend as the models seem to have shifted suddenly. If there is a biscay low it would be pushing up a lot of warm and unstable air as seen this week in southern europe ️️

Yes ,my thoughts too, looks a definitive turn on the models ,for it to turn unsettled, but with some warmth and pyrotechnics too! I must admit ,as nice as this weather is.... its getting boring now.....!

[ChannelThunder]

Did somebody order a Friday night plume? ECM is keen on delivering:

Timestamps for the below are 18z, 00z (Sat) & 06z.

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

The 00z NMM is definitely on steroids

[chapmanslade]

21 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Did somebody order a Friday night plume? ECM is keen on delivering:

Timestamps for the below are 18z, 00z (Sat) & 06z.

 

They will be elevated storms associated with the warm front going on the latest fax for a couple of days earlier. The low seems to be stalled in Biscay

[ChannelThunder]

3 hours ago, chapmanslade said:

They will be elevated storms associated with the warm front going on the latest fax for a couple of days earlier. The low seems to be stalled in Biscay

Yep, can't wait to see the skies fill with AC Cas for the first time this summer. Whether that's this weekend, or whenever!

[Eagle Eye]

Well it's looking interesting again finally. May started off with a bang, the fastest start to a year since at least 2010 convection wise but we've really struggled since. By the end of the week, we start to see that influence our weather fronts wise and with fairly substantial PBL WAA leading to unstable and quite bouyant air parcels across the country possibly. That depends on the area of WAA, if its mostly contained near the surface and we keep the mid-level relative cold then we could be in for a south and also a Midlands event. Ireland and Scotland could fairly quite well as well, according to some models. Its a case of see how we go though, remain cautious for now.

[damianslaw]

Hope for some fireworks by next weekend, need some rain now and something else to talk about other sun and dry weather.

[Freeze]

I had already had about 5 or 6 storms at this point last year, none so far.

[ChannelThunder]

A quick look at precip. charts for Friday night (yes, I'm holding onto the hope of getting something that night!):

GFS is still keen on imports that night:

ICON-EU going for west is best:

GEM with a lightshow for the Scilly Isles only:

ECM (last night's run) keeps things in the channel until early Saturday morning:

 

Over to the 12z ECM & UKMO, along with the UKV which will come nicely into range this evening. I'm hoping the others are going to fall in line with GFS, but that's never particularly likely I guess!

 

Edit: a bonus chart from the 12z UKMO, looking like early morning too:


 

Edited June 5, 2023 by ResonantChannelThunder

[LightningLover]

15z UKV showing the very first tentative hints of elevated thunderstorm potential early hours of Saturday...