Global interconnected weather - Model Output, Pattern Drivers plus Impact worldwide

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Excellent job by the Ensembles with the formation and track of Tropical Storm Ileana

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strongest Negative Phase of the Arctic Oscillation we have seen for a substantial amount of time 

Part of this is linked with the Negative PDO feedback 

Credit

 

Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the Arctic sea-ice loss influence on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation in winter

WCD.COPERNICUS.ORG

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Abstract. The modulation of the winter impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is investigated in the IPSL-CM6A-LR ocean–atmosphere general circulation model...

This will combine with a re strengthening Positive PNA and a re strengthening Negative NAO. 

Credit

 

Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: Pacific North American Pattern

ORIGIN.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: North Atlantic Oscillation

ORIGIN.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

CPC - Teleconnections: Arctic Oscillation

ORIGIN.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

With the PNA having been closer to neutral lately this often causes a Rossby Wave Break Event to develop with cut off low developments on both the West - Northwest coast and Northeast > East + Southeast Coasts with Anticyclonic developments and ridging across Central USA linking to Anticyclonic developments - High Pressure across Canada & Northern States as is visible in the images above +PNA. I've already discussed the heatwave conditions but also worth mentioning the Significant-Extreme Below Average Temperatures, potentially Record Breaking particularly with the Western cut off low development in California & Nevada.

This will bring snow in areas such as The Sierras, Nevada, Northwestern States and Canada.

With the significant -AO this causes a warm Arctic which monthly - seasonal modelling such as the CFS, CANSIPS + NMME have been consistently outputting for months especially heading into Autumn, A warm Arctic ie -AO causes the cool / cold conditions from The Arctic to descend into - across lower latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.

As this event intensifies particularly the -NAO current modelling sees Sea Level Pressure reaching 1049hpa GEFS, 1050hpa GEPS in Greenland by Friday and Saturday next week-weekend.

I've already discussed the MJO feedback but worth adding the ENSO MJO composites with overall good representation.

We have Tropical Storm Gordon in the Tropical North Atlantic 

 

Gordon looks to remain an Atlantic based Storm.

As the Rossby Wave Break Event develops current modelling is keen on a cyclone developing particulary by late Sunday and by Monday + Tuesday, this likely to be a focus for the Carolinas, As MJO activity and a likely developing CCKW forms this will see conditions become favourable for cyclonic development in The Caribbean with current timing by September 20th with the threat likely tracking toward The Caribbean Island Chain and Florida therafter.

Credit

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

Cheers. KW

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

EXTREME Rainfall Event ongoing linking to Pulasan with the most EXTREME FLASH FLOOD Impacts in South Korea, Southeast China, Further Impacts on an already affected Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, A reason the rainfall + Pulasan become so slow moving is due to an anticyclone descending from Siberia & Eastern Asia which acts as a block of Pulasan's track and further developing cyclones, Also noteable how anomalously wet this event has been particularly in China + Korea.

All connected to the MJO with the associated activity above / associated CCKW this will move across the Andaman Sea into the Bay Of Bengal generating cyclonic activity which will enhance the Monsoon Rainfall with Significant accumulations and associated significant flash flood threats in countries such as Thailand, Bangladesh, India with a potentially EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT occuring in Myanmar, this developing cyclone is modelled to draw up a highly moist flow from the Bay Of Bengal with current modelling enhancing a Significant Rainfall Event in The Himalayas.

Looking Globally nothing overly surprising with feedback including La Nina which has strengthed in the Central Pacific ENSO Regions and now extended into the Pacific Nino 4 Region, some Indian Ocean Basin West Cooling, Recent Positive Indian Ocean Dipole Conditions.

Credit Japanese Meteorological Agency Website ENSO / Oceanic Composites 

Climate System Monitoring / TCC

WWW.DATA.JMA.GO.JP

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Climate System Monitoring / TCC

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 14/09/2024 at 05:43, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

As the Rossby Wave Break Event develops current modelling is keen on a cyclone developing particulary by late Sunday and by Monday + Tuesday, this likely to be a focus for the Carolinas, As MJO activity and a likely developing CCKW forms this will see conditions become favourable for cyclonic development in The Caribbean with current timing by September 20th with the threat likely tracking toward The Caribbean Island Chain and Florida therafter.

Credit

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

Very noteworthy developments via this MJO & CCKW activity with Major Hurricane developments in The Eastern Pacific with John, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico with Helene, GEPS had been more significant with the Eastern Pacific developments and less so with Helene wheras the GEFS was the opposite.

 

Adding a bit more to the above, both the GEPS And GEFS show the EXTREME And SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT Areas with good agreement on a particular EXTREME area toward Apalachicola, GEFS has a track farther to the East with GEPS farther West with landfall currently modelled heading into Friday 27th September.

The EXTREMELY Anomalous Above Average 7 day Precipitation Anomalies are easy to see particulary via John in Mexico with values maximised, this is all via The MJO which as progression continues into The Atlantic we have had a Tropical Wave moving into The Atlantic from Africa during Sunday which is likely to lead to a cyclone developing over the next few days, as The MJO activity increases in The Atlantic this will increase cyclonic developments with more substantial development modelled via the next Tropical-Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave Activity a short distance behind the aforementioned cyclone with intensification likely during The very end of September into Week 1 of October, as noted from the 7 day Precipitation Anomalies Ireland and most of The UK are wetter than Average which is unsurprising with this activity being tropically sourced with a number of potentially Significant Events to note

29th > 30th September potentially Significant Rainfall And Associated Flash Flood Threat 

3rd > 4th October Approximately > Potential Stormy Conditions 

Looking at the conditions on The North Atlantic view we see this typical -NAO cyclonic track - storm track with further strengthening of The North Atlantic Jet, which is interspersed briefly with Anticyclonic developments moving Eastward from The North Atlantic toward Ireland, The UK, Europe followed by redevelopment of Anticyclonic developments which move into Greenland and The Arctic.

Credit

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 jonboy

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Further Significant > EXTREME Precipitation Events 

• The Philippines, Taiwan, East China Sea, Sea Of Japan, Korea, Japan - Storm Krathon
• Rossby Wave Breaking Events some discussed in the post below, Countries in Southeastern Europe such as Romania, Ukraine, Countries immediately East of The Adriatic Sea, > Countries closest to The Black Sea > followed by a further Cut Off Low - Rossby Wave Break Event with associated potential Significant Rainfall Event 
• Further Significant Precipitation (Monsoon) in Countries such as China, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, The Himalayas 

Nothing overly surprising given the continuing strongly positive PNA > briefly negative as cyclonic developments occur in Canada then a return to positive, negative NAO and briefly positive AO then a return to a negative AO, recent Oceanic Conditions feedback already discussed alongside the MJO feedback shown below. Significant Above Average Temperatures (Heatwave conditions) particularly toward Southwestern USA, The Arctic Regions. Below Average > Potentially Significantly Below Average Temperatures in Northern and Northwestern Europe including Ireland, The UK, Mainland Europe & Scandinavia also in Canada.

Credit Japanese Meteorological Agency Website - MJO Observation last 40 days.

Credit

Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: Pacific North American Pattern

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: North Atlantic Oscillation

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

CPC - Teleconnections: Arctic Oscillation

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Edited September 29 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Linking to the post above, models now have better agreement on the cyclone which has been known as Major Hurricane Kirk  - now Extratropical. Significant And EXTREME Rainfall Events will be associated in Portugal, Northwestern Spain, Main focal areas will be France perhaps Paris, Luxembourg And Belgium, other Significant Potentially Extreme Rainfall Events in The Alps, Scandinavia particularly Norway And Regions closest to The Gulf Of Bothnia. Further Significant > Potentially Extreme Rainfall Events likely in Portugal, Spain and potentially Morocco with the next Rossby Wave Breaking Cut Off Low, And parts of Ukraine, Belarus And Russia.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Latest model outputs show Major Hurricane Milton making landfall between 3am-6am most likely 6am.

Wide swathe of Significant And EXTREME Rainfall Impacts.

Highly Anomalously Wetter than Average, A good percentage of the USA is actually Drier than Average  > Anomalously Drier than Average linking to the MJOs Above Average 200mb Velocities I've discussed recently. Heading through Mid October cyclonic developments could increase particularly in The Caribbean but also The Tropical North Atlantic is a possibility too, All of this is unsurprising and fits very well with Climatology.

Credit

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

Unsurprisingly the above merits a Multi Day HIGH RISK of Excessive Rainfall from the NWS.

Credit

 

Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Interactive Display

WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Also unsurprisingly there have been many supercells with tornadoes which is a common occurence within the right quadrants of cyclones. Credit cyclonicwx.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Rainfall Records associated with Hurricane Milton 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent job by the models on the Significant-Extreme Rainfall 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Leading onto the post above, the cyclone in The Caribbean became Tropical Storm Nadine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We have also seen the formation of Hurricane Oscar affecting The Bahamas & Turks And Caicos Islands

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As Nadine has continued to move into The Eastern Pacific re development has occured as modelled with the formation of Tropical Storm > Hurricane Kristy

 

 

Ocean basin crossover cyclones are not uncommon and this system along with others are listed here

 

List of Atlantic–Pacific crossover hurricanes - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Oscar will track toward The Canadian Maritimes as a Sub Tropical Storm,EXTREME WAVE HEIGHTS as part of Oscars energy merges with cyclonic developments which track near Greenland And Iceland, also multiple EXTREME WAVE HEIGHT Events affecting The Faroe Islands 

As discussed in this post

 

As the MJO's below average 200mb Velocities continue to progress into The Americas, The Atlantic, Western Hemisphere And Africa during the final days of October heading into November paired with further Rossby Wave Breaking and the -PNA anticyclone this favours the well modelled Caribbean cyclonic developments which also fits excellently to Climatology 

Credit

 

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

Credit

Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: Pacific North American Pattern

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

As discussed in my linked post from 17th October we have seen the well modelled and anticipated cyclonic developments in the Western Pacific via Typhoon KristinePH - Trami And Andaman Sea into The Bay Of Bengal via Cyclone Dana, Typhoon KristinePH - Trami has crossed The Northern Philippines bringing well modelled EXTREME Rainfall and associated Extreme Flash Flooding, also Significant And Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan, Japan And China

 

 

 

This cyclone - typhoon will continue across the South China Sea toward Vietnam with a few potential scenarios, the GEFS gets a possible landfall in Vietnam wheras the GEPS pulls the system back into the main cyclone - typhoon in The Western Pacific East of The Philippines with a secondary landfall back across The Philippines. Further cyclonic developments are likely during the final days of October > November week 1 and potentially beyond with further potential impacts in the aforementioned countries.

Cyclone Dana is modelled to make landfall most likely in Odisha by Late Thursday October 24th - Early Friday October 25th bringing Significant And EXTREME Rainfall Impacts in Odisha + West Bengal in particular

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Kristy went on to become a Category 5 Hurricane

 

Impacts from Dana plus more on the impacts from KristinePH - Trami 

 

 

 

 

 

I had discussed the liklihood for a Significant Rainfall Event within the Right Hand Quadrants of this cyclone - Rossby Wave Break Cut Off Low which produced the following in New Mexico particularly Roswell.

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

As discussed in this post

 

"I'm noting the potential for a Significant potentially Extreme multi day Severe Weather Event linking with the above across the USA particularly during the last days of October 

Significant And Potentially Extreme Snowfall Event(s) continuing in the Northwest, West / Southwestern States

Significant And Potentially Extreme Rainfall Event potentially via a multi day Thunderstorm Event into more Central And Northern States along the boundary of the aforementioned Temperatures"

Very favourable for the above conditions as The MJO's below average 200mb Velocities continue to progress across The Americas - increased thunderstorm developments, upon further research this is also fitting nicely with Climatology with a secondary increase of Severe Weather in the USA 

 

Fall is the second severe weather season

WWW.FOXWEATHER.COM

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While spring has the most notorious reputation for severe thunderstorms and destructive tornadoes, the fall months often bring an uptick in severe weather as the transition from summer to...

Credit

https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/fall-fury-the-2nd-severe-weather-tornado-season-in-the-us/1705191

An ongoing Significant  - Extreme Rainfall Event across The Gulf States / Central Southern States. A new Significant And EXTREME Precipitation Event will develop through November week 1 particularly affecting Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois + Iowa but the Significant Precipitation will also extend into The Great Lakes And Canada. Easy to note the Highly Anomalously Wetter Than Average PWAT values recently and upcoming particularly across The Great Lakes And Canada. Per my recent posts & discussions as is common via the Positive PNA feedback the cyclonic track from The Gulf Of Mexico > Northeastern USA possibly The Canadian Maritimes, the GEM and GEPS are currently more keen on stronger cyclonic developments  - Hurricane development with the GFS / GEFS somewhat less so with November week 2 currently modelled as a key timeframe, the 7 day precip anomalies represent all of this and the discrepancies which are a result of handling of aforementioned MJO progression nicely. 

Credit

 

Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: Pacific North American Pattern

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

Snowfall

Latest Excessive Rainfall outlooks with a Moderate Risk for day 4, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see High Risk(s) issued.

Credit

Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) Interactive Display

WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

As discussed in my recent posts cyclonic developments from The Caribbean have began - leading to the formation of Hurricane Rafael, after bringing Significant And Potentially Extreme Rainfall across Jamaica the cyclone and associated Significant And Extreme Rainfall will make landfall in Cuba today Wednesday 6th November, afterward the cyclone will move into the Gulf Of Mexico with a track into Louisiana looking most probable. Associated Significant And EXTREME Rainfall is likely particularly in Georgia & South Carolina. A weaker cyclone - potential Tropical Depression - Storm looks likely to develop towards Puerto Rico / The Dominican Republic by Thursday > Friday. Following these developments the main focus returns to The Caribbean and The Eastern Pacific with favourable conditions for cyclonic developments modelled by the beginning of next week Monday November 11th again fitting with Climatology.

Credit

Tropical Cyclone Climatology

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Pacific

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

Typhoon Yinxing will cross The Babuyan Islands bringing Significant And EXTREME Rainfall there, Northern Philippines, also further Significant Rainfall in Japan, conditions will continue to be favourable for further cyclonic  - typhoon developments in the Western Pacific throughout November. Also an ongoing Significant And Extreme Rainfall Event particularly across Myanmar.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

EXTREME Rainfall will develop over the next few days via a Cyclone currently named as Potential Tropical Cyclone 19, the most extreme rainfall will occur in Honduras with Significant Rainfall across other regions of Central America. 7 day precip anomalies are maximised on the Wetter Than Average scale. This cyclone is modelled to track into The Gulf Of Mexico by approx November 19th / 20th then a track into Gulf Coast States potentially Florida. Potential for further cyclonic developments again in The Caribbean during Week 4 of November

Above Average Sea Surface Temperatures likely contributing to these Events.

As moisture from The Eastern Pacific moves through Mexico into The USA and links to Cyclonic development this leads to the next Severe Weather Event which has been very well modelled, November 18th > 20th will see the initial Events - Significant Potentially Extreme Rainfall again likely via Thunderstorms with the next merger likely therafter with the aforementioned Cyclone above - Potential Tropical Cyclone 19.

 

 

 

As discussed previously the modelled Cyclonic developments in The Western Pacific have continued via Toraji, Usagi + Man-Yi with Usagi intensifying into a Super Typhoon, these Cyclones  / Typhoons will lead to further Significant And EXTREME Rainfall Events in Countries such as The Babuyan Islands, Taiwan, The Philippines, also Extremely Anomalously Wet PWAT Values  - Events in China, Korea, The Sea Of Japan into Russia which I believe are due to the ongoing -PDO's Above Average Sea Surface Temperatures.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]