Global interconnected weather - Model Output, Pattern Drivers plus Impact worldwide

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[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Strong MJO Event (below average 200mb Velocities) moving through The Maritimes  - Melanesia linking with the above average Sea Surface Temperatures with EXTREME Rainfall modelled throughout Melanesia, particularly in the Timor and Arafura Sea's, Tropical Cyclone development modelled in these Sea's with the GFS and GEM both modelling 2 Cyclones which could potentially impact Northwestern and Northern Australia.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

The aforementioned strong MJO Event ^ will see an impressive cyclone (likely tropical > sub tropical) which will impact New Zealand with Significant and EXTREME Rainfall.

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[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Tropical cyclone Errol will be making landfall in the next day or so, having reached Category 4 intensity

The 2nd aforementioned cyclone currently named Invest 97P will move close to the Northern coast of Queensland then move back through the Arafura Sea.

The aforementioned cyclone impacting New Zealand became Tam

 

 

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Other impactful weather Events globally since December 2024.

 

 

December 2024 Fog

 

Dense fog expected to cause flight delays at Gatwick till end of Sunday | Air transport | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Temporary air restrictions in place for remainder of day because of low visibility, says air traffic control provider

January 2025 Storm Eowyn

Red Wind warnings in Ireland And Scotland

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

A number of Antarctic air outbreaks are modelled to affect Australia, following a switching of the Antarctic Oscillation into its Negative phase.

Credit

 

CPC - Teleconnections: Antarctic Oscillation

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

More rainfall totals in Italy + Alpine areas.

 

 

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[Kirkcaldy Weather]

April 2025 

Wildfires - Scotland 

 

Emergency crews tackle wildfire in Highlands

WWW.THENATIONAL.SCOT

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Emergency services are currently tackling a wildfire on the west coast of Scotland ...

 

Scottish wildfire forces evacuations as blaze spreads north from Galloway | Scotland | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Helicopters deployed to douse flames as blaze reaches Loch Doon after change in wind direction

 

EXTREME wildfire warning in place from Friday, 11 April

WWW.FIRESCOTLAND.GOV.UK

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An 'extreme' wildfire warning is in place for the whole of Scotland until Saturday, 10 April.

 

Wildfires seen from space amid 'extreme risk' alert across Scotland 

NEWS.STV.TV

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The latest wildfire update also includes an extreme risk alert across the southwest, eastern, central, and north of Scotland for Thursday.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

^ The cut off cyclone shows up nicely via the 500mb norm Anomaly charts. Further Cyclonic developments are modelled to bring an accompanying Antarctic air outbreak with further EXTREMELY below average temperatures during week 1 of May.

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[Kirkcaldy Weather]

We should at least for a time see some cyclogenesis with the cyclone currently named Invest 93P located Southwest of Papua New Guinea moving within The Arafura Sea.

As discussed in the following post

 

"The GEPS is modelling a very strong MJO Event in an interesting Region - The Southwest Pacific which includes Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji etc"

Models continue to highlight this potential cyclonic development around Sudest Island part of the Louisiade Archipelago at the beginning of next week:

 

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Edited May 13 by Kirkcaldy Weather