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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted

It looks like 2 am Sunday morning is the time that somewhere from Cornwall to the IOW  can expect something to appear

It's got nowcast situation written all over it

Could contain:

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted
1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

It looks like 2 am Sunday morning is the time that somewhere from Cornwall to the IOW  can expect something to appear

It's got nowcast situation written all over it

Could contain:

previous run mate, 

current run has none over land, but something in the channel off weymouth, shame i'm not working in weymouth till oct otherwise I would of filmed it

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted
4 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

previous run mate, 

current run has none over land, but something in the channel off weymouth, shame i'm not working in weymouth till oct otherwise I would of filmed it

Screenshot_20230908-191143.thumb.png.2db1acbee1fb96852f51876212a43d14.png

That's the 15z, has the 18z come out already? If so I can't find it anywhere 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

Screenshot_20230908-191143.thumb.png.2db1acbee1fb96852f51876212a43d14.png

That's the 15z, has the 18z come out already? If so I can't find it anywhere 

I take it back sorry mate, however its chopping and changing at mo 

Edited by viking_smb
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

I take it back sorry mate, however its chopping and changing at mo 

No worries, I've been keeping an eye on it today and it's definitely been changing every run.

Most of the hi res models have been struggling recently so I'm gonna fill the car and be on standby to see where things develop, seems like the best strategy 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted
1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:

No worries, I've been keeping an eye on it today and it's definitely been changing every run.

Most of the hi res models have been struggling recently so I'm gonna fill the car and be on standby to see where things develop, seems like the best strategy 

definately, i'm going to see how it pans out tomorrow eve 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire
Posted

Ireland with another decent storm yet again. Unbelievable.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted (edited)

Sorry about no forecast for today earlier. Absolutely shattered and Jay wasn't available to do the map. Proper professionals.

Edited by Eagle Eye
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
8 minutes ago, Turquoise said:

Ireland with another decent storm yet again. Unbelievable.

We get all the heat, they get all the storms. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted
Just now, pad199207 said:

 

😲 that looks like a volcano has blown it's top! 

I'd love to be under that

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, pad199207 said:

 

Thats more like it. What a beautiful structure...powerfull updrafts..

...what a waste though over here for tomorrow..all that Cape and little forcing !!...re latest from Nick Finnis..

Screenshot_20230908_195011_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a356f4e16cd46faff7d77e5aee3d2322.jpg

 

Edited by minus10
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 3
Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Thats more like it. What a beautiful structure...powerfull updrafts..

...what a waste though over here for tomorrow..all that Cape and little forcing !!...re latest from Nick Finnis..

Screenshot_20230908_195011_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a356f4e16cd46faff7d77e5aee3d2322.jpg

 

Thats pretty much the exact route i am takin to skegness and back tomorrow!!literallly along that convergence zone!!!!😍!

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Thats more like it. What a beautiful structure...powerfull updrafts..

...what a waste though over here for tomorrow..all that Cape and little forcing !!...re latest from Nick Finnis..

Screenshot_20230908_195011_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a356f4e16cd46faff7d77e5aee3d2322.jpg

 

You'll do very well to get a day with all 3 important factors for big storm development. I actually prefer a day like tomorrow over a typical sunshine and showers day, these storms likely to be incredibly photogenic and producing prolific lightning if they develop.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, A.J said:

no trigger

Could you explain what trigger is needed? I’ve heard this loads before, but would like it explained… is it a cooler air mass coming in or something different? TIA 

Edited by SilverWolf
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted
9 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Could you explain what trigger is needed? I’ve heard this loads before, but would like it explained… is it a cooler air mass coming in or something different? TIA 

You need forcing to help produce lift for a storm to develop

skewt.thumb.jpg.438413de175798655b213bce1f7c772a.jpg

For example tomorrow you can see there is good cape and very good wind shear but there is a lot of CIN so its going to take a big trigger to produce storms tomorrow like a hill or wind convergence but i'm sure others can explain better.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
Posted

Trigger is basically something that causes the air to be forced upwards, csn be a front, orographic features or wind convergence for example. If the air doesn't keep rising and condensing then you won't get cumulonimbus cloud's developing 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 2
Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

^ ^ Great explanations for my question, thanks. Kinda explains why it’s so relatively quiet on here too! As much as I understand what’s been said, it’s still kinda disappointing (so far). Maybe it’s just a badly recalled memory from my childhood 35 years ago, but it did seem like every spell like this went proper bang toward the end,, especially with humidity like this… maybe it still will! 
 

Edit: In that memory, perhaps half of those events were not even hinted at on the (BBC) weather back in the 80’s… it’s amazing the advances in prediction since then, and the opportunity to explore potentials on this site. I’m even more fascinated and engaged with weather than I was as a kid… but! I do sometimes miss that joy of waking up to a crazy storm in the middle of the night, or 8 inches of snow in the morning that was ‘unlikely’, or I simply missed the tv weather forecast… But now have the V4 Radar! Mixed blessings…

Edited by SilverWolf
  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
Posted (edited)

UKv 18z latest update has moved tomorrow night's storms firing slightly further west than what was shown on todays 15z, which continues today's trend

Still plenty of time for rough timings and position to change 

Could contain:

Edited by Southern Storm
  • Like 2
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