Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[Daniel_c150311]

33 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

hello

just an enquiry

Convective Weather has been quiet for weeks , just wondering if anything has happened ?

yea the last upload was in June, I don't know what has happened.

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Dxnielwashere said:

yea the last upload was in June, I don't know what has happened.

He's retired from forecasting. 

[ChannelThunder]

@Gordon Webb @Dxnielwashere

This is all the info we have from Dan really:

A big loss to the UK storm fan community!

[ChannelThunder]

7 hours ago, Southern Storm said:

Another push west from this evenings 21z UKv @ 0100z Sunday morning 

If things continue as they have been, we're gonna need a boat to have any chance of seeing a storm

Just goes to show, that despite popular belief, these things don't always correct eastwards! I associate eastwards corrections more with the 'proper' plumey breakdowns where the Atlantic is pushing in, but these more flabby southerly flows can easily correct westwards with a small change in position of the cut-off low, as we've seen here. 

[Lt. Dan]

Purely from a model watching point of view, I find today quite interesting to see how what may or may not develop...From a 4km WRF there is some potential showing in the 00z run but the model doesn't develop any significant convection (or precip alone!). There is an area of, perhaps weak, surface convergence in what could be a reasonable background environment. I need to try and plot the strength of the horizontal moisture convergence as I wonder, with a little more push, that could be an area to watch. 

 

   

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

With a chance of this weekend being the last large thunderstorm days, decided I’m going to head on my first two day chase. Today going to target a few isolated thunderstorms over the East Mids, ready then to get into position for what could be a big day tomorrow. 
 

Still a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, so remains to be seen what my exact plans are going to be. Let me know if any of you are also going to be out chasing!

[Chris K]

Hmm seems most forecasts initiate everything further North of my area again early tomorrow. Seems so difficult to get overnight storms move up late evening into the night from the South these days

[Azazel]

10 hours ago, ChannelThunder said:

Well, I'm very glad I got my fix abroad recently, as tomorrow night is looking worse with every model run down here. 

The central south/southeast's worst *ever* storm season? At least in living memory? 

The worst since last year! And the year before that! 

[Azazel]

1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

Just goes to show, that despite popular belief, these things don't always correct eastwards! I associate eastwards corrections more with the 'proper' plumey breakdowns where the Atlantic is pushing in, but these more flabby southerly flows can easily correct westwards with a small change in position of the cut-off low, as we've seen here. 

No because if it had corrected east this time, it would’ve brought the central south into play - because that absolutely cannot happen, it corrected west instead. 

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Quite a bizarre-looking outlook for next week if it ever materialises

Please tell that isn't the cold front not making it here.

Edited September 9, 2023 by alexisj9

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:

Just goes to show, that despite popular belief, these things don't always correct eastwards! I associate eastwards corrections more with the 'proper' plumey breakdowns where the Atlantic is pushing in, but these more flabby southerly flows can easily correct westwards with a small change in position of the cut-off low, as we've seen here. 

That's exactly what Sunday nights storms keeping moving west, signalled to me.

[sheikhy]

Ukv has hardly any precipitation along that convergence zone from the east mids to skeggy!!!all good as im gona be on the beach anyway so rather have the sun out lol!!!

[ThomasD27]

Isn't this Ac Cas? Quite promising if it is at this time of the morning, right?

[Mike Upjohn]

58 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

With a chance of this weekend being the last large thunderstorm days, decided I’m going to head on my first two day chase. Today going to target a few isolated thunderstorms over the East Mids, ready then to get into position for what could be a big day tomorrow. 
 

Still a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, so remains to be seen what my exact plans are going to be. Let me know if any of you are also going to be out chasing!

Likely that I will pop out into the Midlands or somewhere from Macclesfield when I see storms pop.

[minus10]

Well certainly scope for the highest temp of the year i would think today looking at latest sat 24 image..

cloudless way south into Spain..just a case of waiting to see what 'pops' up..

[viking_smb]

7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well certainly scope for the highest temp of the year i would think today looking at latest sat 24 image..

cloudless way south into Spain..just a case of waiting to see what 'pops' up..

there is a big storm in the bay of biscay at the moment

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Pleased to see this new Met Office warning for tomorrow. 

70mm in a few hours for "unlucky" locations? I'd change that to lucky! 

Looking forward to getting out chasing tomorrow. 

[Aiden2012]

Deffo some instability around

[Chris.R]

Mostly cloudy here with bursts of moderate rain.

[viking_smb]

think the trough is coming quicker than expected

[ChezWeather]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

With a chance of this weekend being the last large thunderstorm days, decided I’m going to head on my first two day chase. Today going to target a few isolated thunderstorms over the East Mids, ready then to get into position for what could be a big day tomorrow. 
 

Still a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, so remains to be seen what my exact plans are going to be. Let me know if any of you are also going to be out chasing!

I'll be out locally this evening then tomorrow looks like a trip NW, maybe towards the M62 corridor between Leeds/Manchester 

[LIGHTNING ACTION]

Today and Sunday should be looking good with storms, hopefully will get a bit of thunder over here

[ChezWeather]

Just hit 30c here, no breeze at all, feels all the more like mid July than mid September! 

[Supacell]

2 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

With a chance of this weekend being the last large thunderstorm days, decided I’m going to head on my first two day chase. Today going to target a few isolated thunderstorms over the East Mids, ready then to get into position for what could be a big day tomorrow. 
 

Still a lot of uncertainty for tomorrow, so remains to be seen what my exact plans are going to be. Let me know if any of you are also going to be out chasing!

I will be out and about chasing over the next couple of days. I've just forked out on a new vehicle though, so large hail isn't very welcome .

My thoughts are that I will stay local today. Its a low risk but high reward scenario, but that convergence zone looks to occur not far from here.

Tomorrow is now looking more like a trip northwards but still a lot of chopping and changing in the models.

Hoping to end the season with a bang and make 2023 a season a bit like a sandwich. Started well, ended well but with a 2 month chunk of cr@p in the middle.

[ChezWeather]

Latest AROME still going with storms over Lincolnshire this evening 

Run not complete for Sunday yet