Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

[minus10]

Well good luck to all of you in the midlands and the north..here in the south although we could end up having the highest temps we wont get the storms.... not even one.....still...looking forward to the pics and videos...

[WeatherArc]

Ok AROME, lets calm it down a little bit 

 

A significant tornado parameter of 9.5 here 

Obviously very unrealistic and most likely a model error, but will admit i would like to see what would happen with 5k+ cape in the Uk. 

 

Some actual realistic soundings for sunday from the West Mids, very good directional shear and a good amount of speed shear could allow for supercells, i would expect further north the cap is weaker and allows for developments of locally severe t-storms. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by WeatherArc

[Rufus Butterfield]

8 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Latest AROME still going with storms over Lincolnshire this evening 

Run not complete for Sunday yet

At least ukv and arome showing similar areas getting storms so that may be some consistency, mostly Lincolnshire and parts of Yorkshire 

[Metwatch]

Cumulus building

[Eye to the sky]

First signs of convection just north of Derby.

[Liam Burge]

Seems like people in the SW could get a surprise tonight with that little feature! Wonder why the Met isn't issuing a warning for it as this feature has been modelled for multiple runs in a row now.

[daveinSB]

5 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Cumulus building

Yep, some cumulus bubbling up looking east from Melton Mowbray currently

[Aiden2012]

Everytime something is going to happen work messages can you work tomorrow pretty please and I’m like noooo absolutely not , im storm watching

[gdwwdg]

1 hour ago, multi cellular thunderstorm said:

Pleased to see this new Met Office warning for tomorrow. 

70mm in a few hours for "unlucky" locations? I'd change that to lucky! 

Looking forward to getting out chasing tomorrow. 

unusually for the met office these warnings for today and tomorrow actually ties in what is expected 

[ChezWeather]

AROME tomorrow afternoon 

[ChannelThunder]

Zero instability in the sky (so far, anyway) confirms to me the models are most likely correct about nothing happening tonight.

[Carl]

46 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

At least ukv and arome showing similar areas getting storms so that may be some consistency, mostly Lincolnshire and parts of Yorkshire 

Quick question for anyone on the UKV charts - seem to stop progressing at 50 hours. Is that an error at my end or something to do with how the models work?

[ChannelThunder]

3 minutes ago, Carl said:

Quick question for anyone on the UKV charts - seem to stop progressing at 50 hours. Is that an error at my end or something to do with how the models work?

From the Netweather UKV page so I get the numbers right:

 

"The 00z, 06z, 09z, 12z 18z and 21z runs go out to 54 hours, the 03z and 15z to 120 hours"

You can cycle back to the most recent respective 03z/15z run to get the latest 120 hour run if you wish.

Edited September 9, 2023 by ChannelThunder

[Carl]

1 minute ago, ChannelThunder said:

From the Netweather UKV page so I get the numbers right:

 

"The 00z, 06z, 09z, 12z 18z and 21z runs go out to 54 hours, the 03z and 15z to 120 hours"

You can cycle back to the most recent respective 03z/15z run to get the latest 120 hour run if you wish.

Thank you. I should have read that but i didn't! My bad but do appreciate you sharing that!

[cheese]

13 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

AROME tomorrow afternoon 

Holy moly, that looks pretty great for here. 

[Schnee]

Just now, cheese said:

Holy moly, that looks pretty great for here. 

I'm thinking the same thing but not getting my hopes up just yet....

[summer blizzard]

Looks like we are done here. 

Nick gives us a 40% chance of a storm today, we have cloud dark (though still flat), at least one model suggesting somewhere in Yorkshire is gold tonight and while humid and hot, the breeze has already killed off the kind of heat we were forced to ensure yesterday.

We are on the road, the only question is how quickly we end there.

[minus10]

24 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

AROME tomorrow afternoon 

Well at least the arome is calling for our own little storm north of London..

[summer blizzard]

May come to nothing but for those starved of anything, we have got this far in West Yorkshire. 

[Rufus Butterfield]

Plenty signs of instability now

[ChannelThunder]

20 minutes ago, Carl said:

Thank you. I should have read that but i didn't! My bad but do appreciate you sharing that!

No problem, dude!

[summer blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

Plenty signs of instability now

Much better towering than I. 

[Alderc 2.0]

Some robust looking towers going up about 25miles west of Stratford upon Avon. 

[phil b]

Plenty of CU here and the warmest Day of the year for my location

[parhelion]

Decent convection here Looking SE.