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Posted
  • Location: West Yorkshire
  • Location: West Yorkshire
Posted

A bit later than usual, but here's the GFS 18z vs ECM 12z comparison. I'll be comparing the same valid date/time, e.g. GFS T+66 vs. ECM T+72.

The GFS 18z ensemble chart isn't out yet, but the ECM is close to its mean on the 850hPa temperature.

image.thumb.png.02930f8203895cd7a3d1ab117d560ace.png

At T+66/72, GFS and ECM both have the remnants of Storm Babet to our south east, though the low is deeper on the ECM. Both charts show a Scandinavian high, and a deep Greenland low.

image.thumb.png.186562d2eeb18cf74f57b7207deb7e57.png image.thumb.png.9d46833297690d98e96861c426b68ecf.png

At T+114/120,  GFS swings in another low from off the Atlantic, whilst ECM doesn't bother with that and instead brings the remnants of Storm Babet back up the east of the UK for a second go. Quite an unusual pattern. In terms of the upper air temperatures, GFS looks quite a bit colder with the 0C isotherm covering the UK between T+66 and T+144, whereas ECM never really gets the coldest air across the country - it's mostly restricted to the north.

image.thumb.png.e000d0ba8178a18b6936c40a78262373.png image.thumb.png.d117fbafbdd0bcda5ad9e900e69c7475.png

At T+162/168, both GFS and ECM are beginning to break down the Scandinavian high, though less so on the ECM. ECM turns briefly colder as the wind goes into a north-westerly, whereas GFS is fairly close to average at this stage.

Both charts though show tons of low pressure to our west and nothing much to stop it - significant rain totals are likely. GFS has an ex-tropical feature or remnant in the bottom left which may become important.

image.thumb.png.24d7bbf83bc8a18fc80bfcaa11693cce.png image.thumb.png.b2c433c4bc286e0c02ddeee8ef3fb658.png

image.thumb.png.f54f10e0d25de055e901dac88f460ca1.png  image.thumb.png.80ac309cf7fcce0eca8a506da24dff4d.png

Finally, at T+234/240, GFS barrels in yet another deep low from off the Atlantic. There is quite a strong Greenland high, but the Scandinavian high has all but gone, so it's just a continuation of wet weather. ECM also shows the deep low but around a day earlier, and so by T+240 the pattern is a bit flatter. Still looks pretty poor if you're looking for settled weather.

image.thumb.png.8731858346674ab94fa9821aa85d4695.png image.thumb.png.bac53d89d286ecf8a7888841f1c65ba1.png

Bonus chart is the cumulative precipitation charts from GFS and ECM to T+240. No sugar coating this - heavy rain and possible flooding risks, hence the weather warnings. Risk of 150mm or more in the worst hit areas, and 50mm almost everywhere.

image.thumb.png.a81541fe48314f1636e0f9f9e025c2e8.png image.thumb.png.fdbc8fb0a56004afabbfb7e9ce99d4f1.png

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
1 hour ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all,

interesting met office long range forecast for November,possible Scandinavian high with easterly flow worth a read.

They could not get it right one week in advance is all I am saying.

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Posted
  • Location: Hesketh Bank, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summers, cold snowy Winters
  • Location: Hesketh Bank, Lancashire
Posted
41 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

They could not get it right one week in advance is all I am saying.

Not even correct most days 😀🙄🤷‍♂️

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Dorset & Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset & Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

More harmony at day 7 than I have seen for a few days. The extent to which the trough will be squashed by heights to the north is not quite clear, and neither is the location and scale of the smaller low pressure area that most models are showing on the east side of the trough.

image.thumb.png.14468f0292b9d154545c6de8f92bf67b.png

Edited by RainAllNight
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Friday now looks horrendous for southern parts , well at least for a while . 

Could contain:

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted
15 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Great summary @Cambrian very Informative and articulated in a style that is both clear / consise and understands the audience here which is  mainly meteorological hobists 🙂

I do like the southern jet ploughing into the Med..  I just hope it can stay there for December as the opportunities would be limitless for cold and snow if it maintains currently status.  

Unfortunately HOPE is the only hope we have!😊

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset & Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset & Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

The GEM ensemble has been really keen for a couple of days now to have the Azores high come in at the beginning of November and link up to some renewed heights to the east, looking like it would dry us out...

image.thumb.png.d7baf5f24d59a9adaeab338daa7d9a05.png

The ECM ensemble mean seems to agree that the Azores high will be swelling around that time and that there may be renewed heights to the east, but it refuses to commit to any benefits for the UK...

image.thumb.png.fa77a6801ec9d1441386bf702444477e.png

The GFS ensemble means are not keen to cooperate and have the Azores high squashed down to the south, and shows any renewed heights to the east well to the north...

image.thumb.png.cd0d2dad4e8766db6dd8592063ce9ab6.pngimage.thumb.png.e62e2944713661d132f3ea9d0107d604.png

Edited by RainAllNight
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Nov - Feb. Thunderstorms, 20-29°C and sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
Posted (edited)

A more short term change I have noticed for this weekend is that the colder air makes it to the northern half of the UK, but England stays under a more milder airmass.

And check out that dartboard low parked for over 24 hours pretty much above the Midlands with the current GFS operational! Other model runs tonight such as the GEM and ICON have it placed a little further east, around Norfolk. These small changes and what the final outcome will be in reality, will decide which areas sees the most rainfall outside of north east UK / east Scotland.

Whatever the outcome is for this weekend, it's looking very wet from now, and already a serious situation unfolding in southern Ireland this afternoon!

 

Could contain:

Could contain:

Could contain:

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Edited by Metwatch
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Initially it seemed like windward coasts would get the worst of the conditions, now the easterly seems to have been lessened (especially further south where that chillier airmass never arrives). 
Now we are face with an area of low pressure becoming slow moving across the UK and much larger amounts of uncertainty regarding rainfall.

GFS up to Saturday evening;

image.thumb.gif.d841bbf312779d5bcc9cdb6bd03825a8.gif
 

Southern England looks pretty bad along with an area from the Firth of Forth to Aberdeen.

Arpege

image.thumb.png.5fcb49419d06e5123afa05e0c2420aef.png
 

Aside from Eastern Scotland, this shows a very different story. Eastern areas are badly hit whilst towards the south west things are not too bad.

The red warning looks right but aside from Western Scotland (Which looks like escaping without much rain), any other area could be given a proper soaking depending on the behaviour of that low.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm thundery summers, sunshine (and lots of it)
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted

GEM OP run gives something a little interest at 240hrs. I'll leave it here. 

Develops another Scandi high as the tropical system slowly drifts southwards. Still limited cold air to the east mind, but perhaps what the latest long-range from the met is hinting at?.

12_240_mslp500_arc.thumb.png.e11df180db13a88ade5b784dc858fdfd.png

12_240_mslp850_arc.thumb.png.d4c7e1f341a8ca01ba58db00c18564da.png

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
Posted
41 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Initially it seemed like windward coasts would get the worst of the conditions, now the easterly seems to have been lessened (especially further south where that chillier airmass never arrives). 
Now we are face with an area of low pressure becoming slow moving across the UK and much larger amounts of uncertainty regarding rainfall.

GFS up to Saturday evening;

image.thumb.gif.d841bbf312779d5bcc9cdb6bd03825a8.gif
 

Southern England looks pretty bad along with an area from the Firth of Forth to Aberdeen.

Arpege

image.thumb.png.5fcb49419d06e5123afa05e0c2420aef.png
 

Aside from Eastern Scotland, this shows a very different story. Eastern areas are badly hit whilst towards the south west things are not too bad.

The red warning looks right but aside from Western Scotland (Which looks like escaping without much rain), any other area could be given a proper soaking depending on the behaviour of that low.

I’m N/E of Bristol and Arpege shows 20-30mm over next few days on that chart and as I type I’m on 20mm past few hours already 🫣

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted
7 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Friday now looks horrendous for southern parts , well at least for a while . 

Could contain:

What a chart… if it were snow! 🙄

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Posted
  • Location: South East Sussex coast
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and sun. Anything extreme.
  • Location: South East Sussex coast
Posted

Babette seems to be moving north more rapidly than predicted; the rain has almost cleared the south coast already (21:30z) although interestingly there is a small onshore effect with rain appearing as the southern flank crosses the coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot
Posted

image.thumb.png.e88996071586be7300449c0b57cb950c.png

00Z Still shows a trend to temps close or just below average for the rest of the month, mixed in with this  looks to be showers and heavy at times. 

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

EC 00 Z is trying to send Atlantic energy into Europe later on..

image.thumb.png.6b5871a039851e24c1f8e0677a877260.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset & Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset & Oxfordshire
Posted
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 00 Z is trying to send Atlantic energy into Europe later on..

image.thumb.png.6b5871a039851e24c1f8e0677a877260.png

Meanwhile, the GEM just goes for it 🤪

image.thumb.png.8d0e25d7f551bf3f2299c3b54654427e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

Meanwhile, the GEM just goes for it 🤪

image.thumb.png.8d0e25d7f551bf3f2299c3b54654427e.png

Back door mildness up through the balkans...been a frequent fly in the ointment...

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Back door mildness up through the balkans...been a frequent fly in the ointment...

image.thumb.png.f06f4f05be66ef6915f52428b2545154.png

looks cold to me esp scotland with potential for snow in elevated places ..

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