Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

[Nick2373]

 

The 18z brings everything back down to earth it seems the cold spell looks to be cut shorter by a day and snow chances melted before its hit the ground.  Azores feature sending the winds up from the south from the 06th onward is it going to take its usual winter residence from Dec to Feb again this year.    

Edited November 27, 2023 by Nick2373

[Ali1977]

ECM looks better than the UKMO at T144 , holding the block 

[NewEra21]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That about as wintery as it gets late this week on the ECM, very disappointing!! 

I’ll take it over more rain

[TSNWK]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

ECM looks better than the UKMO at T144 , holding the block 

Is that little low in the middle of Atlantic going under or will it pump up the azure ridge.

 

[Ali1977]

Cold hanging on at 168 

Just now, TSNWK said:

Is that little low in the middle of Atlantic going under or will it pump up the azure ridge.

 

It certainly looks far from decided, interesting day of model viewing ahead!! I really would like that Thurs low back though, especially if it has no real impact on longevity!!

[Nick2373]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Is that little low in the middle of Atlantic going under or will it pump up the azure ridge.

 

Given the recent model runs showing a return to mildish conditions from the 05th onward quite possibly pump it up while playing the song You Got To Pump It Up 

[TSNWK]

Defo a backwards step on ukm..and gfs is like a dog with a bone with ending cold and making it a cold snap…

[Mucka]

Anyone considering GFS output should be very weary of current Op runs.

This is how far W it has adjusted the low at just 96h from yesterdays 12z and it is still much further E than the Euros

Look to Euros for guidance out from 120h for now would be my advice.

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Mucka

[Nick2373]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Defo a backwards step on ukm..and gfs is like a dog with a bone with ending cold and making it a cold snap…

In all fairness there have been background signals pointing towards the possibility sometimes the hype is so much everyone gets caught up in the frenzy.    

[Ali1977]

ECM trying its best 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM trying its best 

Uppers colder on 192 than 168.. 

[That ECM]

Precipitation charts are JFF past T24-36 max Op runs past T120. Saves so much disappointment if you think it will play out exactly as shown. 
 

anyway JFF! ECM still having ago.

[TSNWK]

Just now, That ECM said:

Precipitation charts are JFF past T24-36 max Op runs past T120. Saves so much disappointment if you think it will play out exactly as shown. 
 

anyway JFF! ECM still having ago.

Will it behave as last night day 9 to day 10 with heights to north west hooking up polar heights…. So. Much cold air to tap into.l

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Will it behave as last night day 9 to day 10 with heights to north west hooking up polar heights…. So. Much cold air to tap into.l

No there’s enough in the gefs to not write it off yet. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216, trying to have a go at what it accomplished yesterday:

Maybe too far east this morning, but the evolution was well supported on the EPS yesterday.

[Mucka]

Imagine this sort of developing blocking pattern backed around 1,000 or so miles W and we would be locked in the cold. 

Wishful thinking or direction of travel?

[Sceptical]

21 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

Snow showers gathering in the North sea

Which ties in with the MetOffice thinking last Friday.  

 

 

[Dennis]

Good morning 

have a nice week all  and after 192h ....its a scandi again forseen 

[Alderc 2.0]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Imagine this sort of developing blocking pattern backed around 1,000 or so miles W and we would be locked in the cold. 

Wishful thinking or direction of travel?

Or if it could develop a few hundred miles further south east we’d have a very mild and dry start to winter. 

[January Snowstorm]

As predicted the Scandi High is gone this morning!!

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Imagine this sort of developing blocking pattern backed around 1,000 or so miles W and we would be locked in the cold. 

Wishful thinking or direction of travel?

I reckon 200 miles west would be plenty… however it’s nowhere near as good as last nights ecm day 10

[Dennis]

MJO forecast on a scandi High is still to watch 

[Nick2373]

00z shows the cold spell from the 27th/28th onward to the 05th December then just above average there on unsettled, Snow chances diminishes for many during the cold spell. showers coming off the North sea wintery in nature.  

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Now it looks like we could get no snow event thurs or Friday and a short cold snap - lose lose . Let’s see what the 12zs do!

Complicated set up though, hard to see where it’ll go next 

Now that it's starting to stop blowing up Thursdays low, it's probably blowing up the next one in the Atlantic. I'm not sure by the time that low is at around four days away, it will look the same as now. Other models have it weaker and sliding, guess we'll see.

[sheikhy]

Good ecm and ukmo again this morning!!you gona expect variations from run to run with all those shortwaves flaoting around!!gfs has a bit more umph in the atlantic from 144 hours but when doesnt it have any?!!!!lol!!!!