Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[HarvSlugger]

Does anyone have sunshine figures for october?- pembrokeshire, preferably anywhere in the preseli hills, thankyou 

[Wetterfrosch]

 Sky Full I don't know how it is in other parts of the country but what is striking this year is the almost complete absence of tree seeds , acorns, hazel nuts, beech masts etc. Yesterday I joined an archeology/heritage walk round our local slate quarry, long defunct and reclaimed by nature and didn't spot anything of that sort. Not even a single fly agaric which in previous years have been growing in considerable numbers. Two weeks back I joined the Woodland Trust on a mission to collect seeds at Coed Felenrhyd near Maentwrog but apart from rowan berries we returned with very little. According to the walk leader, trees tend to do that every now and then to bring down the numbers of mice and other rodents who in mast years thrive on them but reduce the trees' chances of spreading. Isn't nature clever?

[snefnug]

Loads of mushrooms including red spotty ones up here. Very poor nut season apart from walnuts on neighbours tree and conkers. Sweet chestnuts along canal prolific but small. Rowans amazing. Pretty much all but trees and my apple trees stripped by squirrel and birds. 

[snefnug]

Hedgerow berries prolific are belladonna,haws and holly and ivy

 

[Wetterfrosch]

 snefnug Lucky you, hope for a better next year here!

[Sky Full]

 Wetterfrosch  I’ve not noticed a particular absence of nuts and berries here but I’ve certainly noticed an absence of fungi which I look for everywhere I can.  I haven’t seen much variety at all other than the ubiquitous bracket fungus on fallen trees and wild mushrooms are nowhere to be found.  I don’t have a theory about this - maybe I’m looking in the wrong places?  The relatively mild weather should encourage more fungi and we can’t blame the lack of rain even if it’s been drier than average in recent days.  Anyway, I’ll keep looking!  
 

it’s incredibly quiet, still and unseasonably mild here this morning - but remains 100% overcast unfortunately.

[HarvSlugger]

 Sky Full we've still got days and days of complete overcast

 

[snefnug]

Once again overcast and smizzlly with no breeze.  Temperatures pegged, again, at about 10-11C so not wildly mild. Meto forecast seems rinse and repeat with little variation.   So little if any light for our solar panels (old school need sunlight), little if any natural light at back end of house. Ho hummmmm

[Wetterfrosch]

 Sky Full The one item that's been plentiful even here are rowan berries, and even hawthorns were about average. Just this morning I spotted a blackbird picking a few berries outside the kitchen window. As for the lack of mushrooms, it is generally accepted that trees communicate with each other via the mycelia in the ground and work in symbiosis with each other. Therefore, might no acorns above actually be either course or effect of no fungi below or vice versa? Just a wild theory!

In the meantime, the big bore continues but I wouldn't want to change it for conditions recently seen in Spain or Norway. It's been ideal for our village bonfire and fireworks display organized by the local football club. To me, November has always been the dullest, darkest month of the year, so no surprise there. As for winter, I have given up on speculation!

[Sky Full]

This afternoon on a trip to Fishguard via Haverfordwest I was treated to a most unusual phenomenon in the skies as we found ourselves exiting from under the dark overcast into bright sunshine.  A quick Look at the weather radar showed me that the very top of Pembrokeshire from St David’s to Caridigan was poking out from under the clouds and enjoying a lovely Autumn day….one of the only places in the UK to be enjoying these conditions.  The broad bank of cloud caused by the inversion looked almost like a huge tsunami wave right across the southern horizon and it was quite a sight to see.  The photos don’t really do it justice but give you an idea of the size and depth of the cloud cover not more than a few miles to the south….

 

 

Edited November 4 by Sky Full

[snefnug]

 Sky Full crikey!  Sunshine! And the heavenly clouds rolled back…..

[Sky Full]

 snefnug   Yep!  This is the satellite photo from yesterday which shows just the northern coast of Pembs with no cloud cover and a sharp leading edge which I was surprised to discover!  No idea why the clouds should part right there but isn’t the weather peculiar and amazing at the same time!
 

Edited November 5 by Sky Full

[Wetterfrosch]

Brief glimpse of sunshine here this morning but soon the hole filled in again with cloud, so better go back to bed then!

[Sky Full]

Another dreary, foggy, damp and drizzly morning here - wouldn’t even know if the sun has risen yet.   I’m guessing we’re only getting about 50% of maximum daylight at the moment, day after day, which is quite depressing.  I’ve heard of SAD syndrome and I can understand why it affects some people at this time of year.  With all the other depressing news we’re hearing it feels like it’s going to be a long day…..

[Wetterfrosch]

 Sky Full Poor you! With the wind veering back to a SE'ly, clouds have broken up coming over the Nantlle Ridge and allowing for some incredibly warm sunshine here, although it still looks quite dark and gloomy to my north. So far it's 16.2 C and who knows where it may end? Earlier this year we obtained a colony of swarming bees which have settled in nicely and who are very busy today flying in and out, no idea though what they are feeding on at so late in the year, ivy flowers perhaps? 

As for the orange man baby returning to the White House, perhaps it's the clearest sign yet for Europe to wean itself of the reliance of the big brother. Will be interesting to see what outrageous measures he might put in place during his reign.

[Sky Full]

 Wetterfrosch   Glad things are brighter where you are!  I’m decorating inside so I guess this weather is perfect in a way - no temptation to get outside and do anything else!  It’ll be interesting to see how long it lasts because the models are showing a resurgent high pressure even in the later charts…..

It will also be interesting - and a little concerning - to see what policies will be implemented in the USA given the overwhelming majority in both houses which the new president will enjoy.  Who knows, perhaps it won’t all be bad?  (Sorry - off topic. )

Edited November 6 by Sky Full

[snefnug]

Holy Moly!  Just popped into the ‘serious discussion’ convo re the USA Elections.  Have fled quickly as toys armed with nuclear warheads are being hurled at anyone who disagrees with anyone.  

Needless to say, I popped out again very very fast.

[andymusic]

Hi team Andy's ready for the season ahead. I think it may well be a snowy one this time. Statistically we've had some mild winters recently so it follows we may well get a frozen/snowy one now, what do you guys think? 

Already it seems gfs is looking at a cool to cold rest of November with a cracker of an easterly (bit early for it to really matter), then a stonking Artic northerly it seems. 

Welcome to winter 24/25 let us see what the weather gods have for us this time eh! 

[snefnug]

 andymusic Helloo Andy, good to see you back.  You got me a tad worried now, as you are a magic snow symbol heralding snow usually.  I’ve just got the snow shovel out from back of shed, just in case the snow gods realise you are out and about.

Edited November 7 by snefnug

[Wetterfrosch]

Brighter days have been on the cards over recent days and today has turned out to be outright sunny in parts of western Wales. The satellite image clearly shows the gaps. Combined with warm temperatures one could think it's spring already if it wasn't for  andymusic waking from his summer hibernation. Generally, I'm not expecting too much in regard to cold/snowy conditions. Seasonal models and global drivers instill little confidence. My bet is on early cold and a front loaded winter, frost yes but not much in the way of snow. Happy to be proven wrong though!

[snefnug]

Sooooooo @andymusic, your spidery snow senses put you ahead of the game.  Madmod all a jitter at polar prospects…..

[Wetterfrosch]

Gone quite foggy here now but very mild at 13C. Earlier rain yielded 7.2 mm, a lot more than I expected. Fever on MOD thread is rising, I'd suggest cold compresses as a cure to avoid disappointment. What we know for sure is that we will be able to enjoy some sunshine in the first half of the week and a sharp drop in temperatures at the end of it. I might almost miss the mild conditions but for the sake of nature, bring on some cold days/weeks, please!

[snefnug]

EEK!  Extended (15/11 -24/11) METO forecast has snow in the text (albeit for northernest parts).  That’ll send them into meltdown in various Madmod parts of Netweather.  Here it is, wonder of wonders, a clear sky, which I hope means that the anti cyclonic gloom has shifted its dreckiness elsewhere for a while.  Even has little suns in the online forecast. 

[andymusic]

Seems to be next week onwards we could see some of the white stuff even in Wales (on the tops of mountains) very early start to winter it seems. Scotland could well get a hammering and even northern England is gonna get some too. Those pensioners better look out, the snow gods have spoken lol

[HarvSlugger]

 A Pembrokeshire dangler is being shown consistently every run with GFS and ecm