South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[jy]

 Andy Bown if you play in the rain,you train in the rain,however,thats only the players,not their dads.

[Dorsetbred]

I'm not so convinced about the MetO Yellow for Sunday when viewing the latest update, of course it does depend on the the position of the LP as it crosses the UK.

5 hours ago, Summertime Sadness said:

Can't wait to move my furniture in that

Sunday looks better than Saturday!

[Rich_Clements]

 Dorsetbred My solar powered christmas tree lights lasted 30 minutes tonight

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Late Friday into Saturday looks somewhat concerning for our region. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the yellow warning upgraded to amber for parts of our region when the Met review their warnings in the morning.

[Alderc 2.0]

2 hours ago, manutdmatt1986 said:

Saturday looking potentially very disruptive.

This coming weekend reminds of the Boxing Day storm from a few years ago when there was hour after hour of high winds. Would expect to see at least an Amber from this.

[jy]

The storms have just been named..Pinky and Perky,you couldn't make it up could you

[manutdmatt1986]

 Alderc 2.0 Amber wind warnings (SW and maybe parts of the east coast) and naming of storm quite likely tomorrow.

Edited December 4, 2024 by manutdmatt1986

[Mapantz]

Met Office forecast showing gusts in the mid-60's  for here on Saturday morning. However, they are also showing gusts to the mid-40's for right now, and it's barely half of that. 

The sustained winds don't tally with the gusts on their website either. I guarantee that they won't be 60mph gusts of wind here.

I've emailed them 3 times about their nonsense data, but they still don't reply.

[manutdmatt1986]

 Mapantz I’m not a fan of weather apps in general, including our own.

[Mapantz]

 manutdmatt1986

It's their website as well.

I had no issue with it until they changed the data. Now the wind forecasts are incorrect 100% of the time.

Another good example was this morning. The Met Office app was showing wind gusts circa 25mph between 8 and 11am. The reality was, it was actually flat calm, F0.

The old data was more accurate, and I have told them this numerous times in emails, and they don't reply.

I've been watching Bournemouth's wind forecasts, and looking at the official Met Office observations, and the same thing is happening, they don't tally anymore.

It makes no sense at all to change the data when the original was more accurate.

[Alderc 2.0]

Irrespective of what the Meto says models in agreement of a long, hard blow this weekend 

Edited December 5, 2024 by Alderc 2.0

[Summertime Sadness]

I'm confused as to why there are 3 possible scenarios when it's due tomorrow. At what point do meto say " yep lets go with that one"?

[chillyblast]

Can't say I am looking forward to the weekend with that storm on the way, looks concerning.

Very dark and gloomy today, can't see Dartmoor as hidden in low cloud, but temps up at 11c right now.

From earlier in the week when it was nice and crisp!

Edited December 5, 2024 by chillyblast

[jtay]

Drizzly, breezy and mild this morning.

Fields that had shown some sign of drying out are back to stodge again this morning.

An unexpected benefit of the weekend storm is that I no longer have to put the outside lights up on Saturday. We now go with my original plan of next weekend.

[Dorsetbred]

The weekend storm is named - Darragh, as areas of the west country update from YELLOW to AMBER.

 Summertime Sadness I think they are firming up on the track, given it has now been named.

[Andrew_WsM]

Just in the Amber warning zone. The christmas decorations are going to get an early workout this year!

 

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, a damp and slightly breezy start to the day, after an overnight low of 10.8°C at: 00:00 currently 12.8°C, RH97% with a gentle breeze in from the SW and broken clouds at an altitude of 1,200 ft.

From Above a swathe of cloud over the area

On Golden sands the boarders are back

 

[Dorsetbred]

So lets have a wander around the charts and see what's what for Storm Darragh.

Firstly the North Atlantic chart, shows Darragh as a developing storm 

From Above it looks like this at the moment:

The MetO suggests this for the track:

ECM has this as its track

GFS has this as its track, slightly further south than ECM:

ICON has this:

UKV has this:

ARPEGE has this:

From the above the track seems fairly well consist across all models now.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 5, 2024 by Dorsetbred

[manutdmatt1986]

 Summertime Sadness That was drawn up early yesterday when there was more model disagreement, so it’s out of date now.

[Summertime Sadness]

 manutdmatt1986 oh, yes I realise now. I saw it on meto this morning.

[Dorsetbred]

@manutdmatt1986 any ideas if Darragh is likely to deepen on initial forecast?

 

[manutdmatt1986]

 Dorsetbred It looks like it will deepen a bit earlier than initially forecast, hence the strongest winds look to be through the Irish Sea and SW UK whereas initially they looked to be for North Sea coast areas as the low was forecast to deepen on exiting into the North Sea.

What will enhance the risk of strong winds further is a marked build in pressure to the west of the system increasing the pressure gradient, and so it may produce stronger winds than less deep lows of the past.

[TammasinWhiskers]

Well it's like the chuffin' Bat Signal has gone up, there's a named storm and all of a sudden up pops Tammasin.

Quick update for those who might remember me from last year and my weather twitch - turns out I was right all along, the leak along the roofline where there was a missing hanging tile WAS an issue and our cob wall collapsed about two months ago, taking the chimney with it. All now repaired, no thanks to half a dozen roofers over the last 18 months who have looked at the fiddly job and said it absolutely wasn't an issue.

Bit fretful about Darragh but confused more than anything else as there seems to be such a massive divergence of predicted wind speeds on the Windy app (it has a Compare function where you can look at the various forecasting models) and the MO predictions seem to be the outliers by about 10-20mph for gusts?

[manutdmatt1986]

 TammasinWhiskers UKMO model does look the most extreme at the moment and about 10mph stronger than other models. Based on that, 60-70mph gusts widely seems more likely than the 70-80mph gusts shown by the UKMO model but of course localised stronger gusts are possible.

[TammasinWhiskers]

 manutdmatt1986 yes, it looks increasingly out of sync with the others, I'm glad it's not just me being led by anxiety. 

I remind myself that we survived Storm Eunice without the house collapsing, I live in a 400 year old granite and cob cottage in an inland dip sheltered on all sides, it's seen worse than this in its time and it's still here....