Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

[The PIT]

Met forecast for a little light rain for us. -7 uppers according to the GFS. Dew points the wrong side of things plus a few other factors say yes and others say no. Too early to call as everything depends on the track on the day. Peak district the place to be to be confidant.  I doubt that 20 cm to 35cm will fall though.

[Light Without Heat]

Hudson dusting his ramp off 

 

Edited November 14, 2024 by Light Without Heat

[Light Without Heat]

 The PIT evaporative? 

[The PIT]

 Light Without Heat That's in my minds eye as well.

[Winter Cold]

I'm not feeling confident about anything next week. Can't get excited about it which is why I've not posted.

Met office showing 5c most days next week and not falling below freezing at night. Nothing unusual about that for this time of year for us. Looks too cloudy for even a frost.

We shall see, I hope things improve but I'm not very enthusiastic at the moment....

[The PIT]

ECM has the low much further north so rain for us and average temperatures. Long way to go yet. GFs the best, UKMO next best ECM the bad boy. However since it's a milder outlook and we all know mild always wins. Grrrrrrr.

[Weather26]

And at the moment it's looks like the best we're getting is hill snow on Monday afternoon which clears off by midnight-not the unsettled Tuesday we were hearing about yesterday at all.

[The PIT]

ECM and UKMO show rain and a delay and downgrade to the cold weather which moves to Tuesday. So rain now for Monday. GFS more bullish with the cold but still pushes things slightly north so rain for us perhaps snow in N yorkshire.

Need to keep an eye on the delaying which indicate a switch away from the cold spell. It's happened before at close time intervals.

[winterof79]

[Tim A]

As it stands I think we will get rain and the borders area looks primed. GFS has always been the most south and still looks good but has moved north in last few days  But it's delicately poised , if all models were showing a direct hit at this stage I would be worried it would slip away south as we get nearer the time.  

[Decemberof2010]

 Tim A yes I have a feeling this isn’t a done deal for us in Leeds. Any movement south now brings us back into play. Can’t see any more northerly corrections. I’m expecting to just miss out with N Yorks the southern extent. I’m hoping however we keep getting slight southern corrections each run. 

[cowdog]

Now we can start planning -

 

Weather warning issued for most of North Yorkshire and West Yorkshire for Monday / Tuesday.

 

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, wind, snow, ice, fog, thunderstorm, lightning and extreme heat.

 

 

Edited November 15, 2024 by cowdog

[Mark Bayley]

At face value the 6z GFS would probably bring snow down to lower levels (as per the met potential), say 100m plus (might struggle to stick if it arrives in daylight hours though)? In all the years I've been on this forum, 9 out 10 times this sort of thing has tracked further south. If i was betting i'd think Leeds is the northern extent of anything potentially notable, with the west side of Sheffield into the Peak District being the sweetspot. Lets evaluate the situation tomorrow evening!

[The PIT]

Zippo for us on that warning. I feel we won't know the actual story until Sunday evening unless the models all swing into alignment consistently before then.

[Cal]

Must be a mare for the MO in these situations with so many factors to take into consideration, experience has taught it usually ends up slightly south of what's currently modeled, if so it will bring S. Yorks into the fray especially with elevation, can't see beyond rain east of the A1 at this stage.

[Derbyshire_Snow2]

 The PIT We will either get a big dump of snow or nothing at all I suspect. 

[winterof79]

Icon has sweet spot Yorks Lancs boarder.....on this run Arpege also going down that route

Arpege

[Mark Bayley]

Yeah, no change on the 12zs so far from what i said earlier (though hard to tell on the UKMO). Arriving at night will help lower ground!

[The PIT]

GFS still likes the low further south. UKMO further north so what will the ECM think. GFS has seeing some Snow, UKMO rain. So casting vote ECM. Still feel we won't get a proper handle on it until Sunday evening. A track shift of 50 miles would make a huge difference for us.

[joggs]

At least it should be interesting for some of us.

Evaporative cooking should help with the right track 

[Harsh Climate]

 joggs

I'm not expecting much at 66m but if I could get 1'' propper snow come tuesday morning, I will be very happy.

If I was still in Otley (100m) I'd be aiming for 3'' lol.

[Tim A]

Still a whole to go before we know where is at greatest risk but think it's likely to be mostly high ground. Lots of talk of GFS 6z being further South but UKMO 6Z still quite a bit North. Hopefully somewhere between the two. 

Edited November 16, 2024 by Tim A

[Weather26]

And we're still waiting for the ECM to give it's casting vote!

[The PIT]

Looking pretty much a dead duck for sunny Sheffield away from the peak district. Pretty well good agreement on the track and it's just too far north for us.

[Yorkshirepudding]

 The PIT Seen these lows track 100+ south before on the day from the 18z model the day before to the point of going to bed assuming a winter wonderland in the morning to wake up and find absolutely nothing to look at the radar and it’s completely missed us. Late changes can happen as you know pal.

Edited November 16, 2024 by Yorkshirepudding
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