Midlands regional discussion - into winter 2024/5

[Midlands Ice Age]

Yep I recorded 7.4C max today, currently at 6.3C and falling slowly...

MIA

[Dancerwithwings]

 Midlands Ice Age

At the start of the week the forecast was going for 16’s this week, and I’m sure it was mentioned if the clouds break with a southerly flow we may see 18’s 

How wrong and way-out that forecast was….I've struggled to get into double figures all week 

Currently at 6.7c with a max of 7.5c today

Anyway MIA the second half of November is certainly looking interesting

 

 

Edited November 9 by Dancerwithwings

[Neil Harris]

Wow.. is that sunshine?

[Arctic Hare]

I was just thinking the same thing! The sky is a weird blue colour in places, too. A rare phenomenon I can't quite diagnose right now...

Edited November 10 by Arctic Hare

[matty40s]

I say a big BANK on this, at less than 12 hours notice, surely they cant throw a spanner in the works tonight...

 

Saw a grand total of about 35 seconds of sunshine fleetingly on the M1 near Loughborough, then another 3 minutes further South towards Lutterworth.

First since 27th October at 1.30pm

[Snowshine]

According to local records, we have endured the dullest period of weather since 1987 (12 consecutive days without sunshine). Thankfully, it looks like we are all guaranteed a reasonable amount of sunshine in the coming days.

Edited November 11 by Snowshine

[manutdmatt1986]

Having moved to the south west for my dream job at the Met Office, I will no longer be frequenting this group as much. No more Snow-on-Trent for me

My previous account was MattStoke.

Edited November 12 by manutdmatt1986

[Midlands Ice Age]

Sky suddenly cleared  yesterday pm and left a bright moon, and rapidly falling temperatures.

Temperatures fell quickly and reached 1.0C at 01:30, before rising as the cloud spread in from the east.

Max reached today was 10.7c  with variable mainly cloudy skies.

Felt cold in the wind, current temp is 9.8C and falling.

MIA 

[MarkW]

It feels very cold outside now. Even the cats won't endure more than 10 minutes out there.

[SollyOlly]

I'm enjoying this gradual descent into somewhat colder weather...but you're dead right about the cats! My cat is not happy. Some lovely sunshine and a clear, cold day, frost by night, would be wonderful...

[Iceman2606]

11 November 2024 Time-Lapse - Northamptonshire, UK

 

[andy_leics22]

Hello everyone, back for another Winter I've just realised, I signed up to Netweather in 2004, so this will be my 20th Winter on here A lot has changed in the past year. I now have a baby boy! So I can't wait to build snowmen with him as he grows up  

 

Still at T150, but this has caught my eye on the latest GFS run...

[SollyOlly]

 andy_leics22 Good to hear from you mate, and nice to have you back. After the terribly disappointing dud of last winter, this year I was determined not to get suckered into any chase, or to have any expectations. And then the models do that to me...! ha ha. I'm trying not to think of snow (because I'm sure that I'll jinx it), but hopefully we will at least get some cold for the Midlands. 

[Metwatch]

Also mentioned in the mod thread yesterday but I've always wondered if a 10th December 2017 repeat could in theory take place 2 weeks earlier if there is enough cold air on the northern side of a sliding low across the channel / southern England and deliver a great event for central areas, still within meteorological autumn. Quite a few recent deterministic runs seems to think it's possible next week, the GFS runs this morning especially so, but a shame it's still so far out! If these lows miss us completely, I don't think any disturbances or streamers would deliver much snow here but there is still some time to go yet. A decent cold snap for late autumn still on the cards though!

[Dancerwithwings]

Welcome back Andy….

 Metwatch Great chart….but will it won’t it, these sliding lows are hard to predict, even at 48h all can look good, until the next day and then theses can be 50 miles north or south….in which we all know can make massive differences.

But atm the models are showing promise….I’m happy

[Dancerwithwings]

Here’s an example to my previous post, the low is slightly further North

BUT….we’ve got many a day and many many more runs yet to see what’s what

Gfs 06z 

Gfs 12z 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z GFS op too far north for us in here, need a southwards shift, but FI yet

[Weather Enthusiast91]

The second half of November is looking to be far more interesting than much of the first half. Though that wouldn't be too difficult.

Edited November 13 by Weather Enthusiast91

[SollyOlly]

 Weather Enthusiast91 Definitely! I hated the first half (and suspect that I might not be alone in that), so something more interesting on the cooler side is very welcome! My only slight concern is that we have had a cold end to November a couple of times in the past few years (my memory fails me for the exact years, but 2023 was one of them!) and that ended up with the following winter being a dud. Anyway...all looking good for next week so far!

[MarkW]

• Yes, last year the last week or two of November was very cold. I recall frost on the car over a run of 4-5 mornings or more and was expecting snow at some point, but it didn't happen. Been getting colder in the past week and a half or so. Seems warmer outside tonight mind. 

[andy_leics22]

A stonker of a GFS 06z run! The snow starts at T108. Moving closer to a reliable timeframe. Surely not?! I know downgrades can happen at very short notice, so we can't get ahead of ourselves, yet.

[andy_leics22]

ECM 00z goes for more of a rain/sleet mix at first but finishes strongly with heavy snow on the back edge!

[MKN]

 andy_leics22 definitely to soon right now. The number of times these sorts of systems get modelled further north then south etc is ridiculous and is never usually nailed down until about +24 lol. 

Edited November 14 by MKN

[andy_leics22]

 MKN  Yes, far too early yet! Quite exciting to see snow on the model runs already though. Last Winter was poor, but so far, this year is looking more promising and Winter hasn't officially started yet

[MKN]

 andy_leics22 No although I've said and seen it said many times before then before you know it winters almost over and haven't had a chance of snow.

Hopefully we get lucky for once next week that delivers 10cms or so and we get a week of picture postcard scenes then anything after that is a bonus.