Midlands regional discussion - into winter 2024/5

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Shezale coventry

I am reminded of a  situation from the 70's.

A low pressure to the west of N I suddenly deepened and dropped ESE over the Mids.

The forecasters predicted sleet turning to rain for here.

It did start as rain and sleet, but after an hour turned to snow.

It continued another 24 hrs as the cold air undercut back south more quickly than expected.    At the time there was a putative attempt at an HP  developing over Scandy..

 A low dropping SE  thru us is not a usual direction of travel for approaching the UK.

I think we have an interesting period ahead.

MIA

Edited November 15, 2024 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Expect more 'girations' for another 36 hrs over in the MAD, and that they must look across the whole suites  for the  actual solution.

They just do not understand that every model has its own errors, and the data input will vary considerably in the area that the low is starting to form.

Sunday night will just about pin it down to within 50 miles, at best.

MIA

 

 

[Dancerwithwings]

As you were saying MIA yesterday evening 

11 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

I think we have an interesting period ahead.

Gfs 06z as the low further South on this run 

 

Its certainly been a while since we’ve seen a windchill like
 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Dancerwithwings

My thoughts are that we are in the game with the low crossing anywhere between the south coast (low chance) and north of Manchester, also low chance. Anywhere in between is more probable.

I was at Elmdon Park yesterday watching the swan family practicing their take off and landing  skills.  Hoping we will be there on Tuesday with pictures of them in snowfall.

MIA

 

[Dancerwithwings]

 Midlands Ice Age

Agreed, as the low hasn’t even formed as yet, if the low stays to the South of the Jet it’ll be more slack and then it will have more of a southerly track, but it doesn’t take much for it to flip over to the North side of the Jet, inwhich it’ll intensify and go more Northerly…..I’m sure this is what the MO are debating right now

I think 12z tomorrow will show us  

[Midlands Ice Age]

That isobar map of yours is quite interesting as it shows 2 small depressions travelling along together with the first suddenly deepening over us... that will cause an elongated low and will pull in any colder air from the NE for the second one.

It is similar to my recollections from the 70's I discussed with Shezali above.

[Dancerwithwings]

 Midlands Ice Age  

Im sure that was my first memory, of that momentous time back in the 70’s….

I remember the forecasters at the time the next day discussing what went wrong 

Or in our case, what went RIGHT I’d give anything to see that again

[Dancerwithwings]

I can confirm, I’m having notable rainfall here, the first in weeks 

Anyway I’ve copied this from the Model thread, it seems the low is tracking further South….itll be interesting to see if the Models will pick up on it later 

 

[stewfox]

Could mods set up a new thread for the winter .Summer 2024 doesn't now seem appropriate 

[Blessed Weather]

 stewfox Hi. I've changed the title to something more appropriate rather than starting a complete new thread. Hope that's OK.

[SollyOlly]

All still on a knife-edge for us locally, it seems? Obviously, I would prefer nailed on proper winter, but that is rare these days, especially in November! But I've found genuine interest in this 'chase', at least there is something notable to discuss. As I've said before, I'm all for the cold first, and then anything else will be a bonus. Therefore, some interest in next week, regardless...and as I'll be in Leeds from Thursday lunchtime for 48hrs, who knows what I might see!

All good, after a dull (literally), boring and mild first half to November. A cooler week to bring the CET down to something closer to average will be welcome. Snow? Yes please! But no expectations at this stage.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Nice to finally see a pattern change.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 SollyOlly

If  the low moves south again (25 - 50 miles only please) we could be in for some nice fun.

MIA  

[SollyOlly]

 Midlands Ice Age yes, I'm primed! Although, being an older person on here, I know that last minute downgrades are very common. Still, one lives in hope, eh...?

[Midlands Ice Age]

 SollyOlly  Its the opposite for me really,, i've seen in my younger years these situations develop into something good.   Must be at least 80 years since though!!

MIA

[SollyOlly]

 Midlands Ice Age I'm with you. We used to have some crackers, didn't we? And the West Midlands often did well. It just seems to me that those times are fewer and further between than they used to be...still, what one lacks in frequency, perhaps we can make up for in intensity? Certainly, I loved the 2008-2011 period, and parts of 2013! Took me right back. 

[shunthebartlett92]

 SollyOlly yh 08-11 had some cracking snow events! Good time of life for me too especially earlier as i was gearing up for uni then and remember sixth form getting cancelled at lunchtime early 2009. Dec 2010 speaks for itself although sadly lost my dad then; felt very bleak with the snow

Edited November 16, 2024 by shunthebartlett92

[SollyOlly]

 shunthebartlett92 h

Yes, I went to the funeral of a dearly loved one in the cold and snow of December 2010 too...lives on in the memory. Felt appropriately bleak. Can empathise with you brother. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Looks like as per 18Z I have my wish..... NOw how do I stop it moving further south,.

I was hoping for this change tomorrow

.MIA

[Dancerwithwings]

 Midlands Ice Age  

On the 18z gfs FUN run it’s seems that we’ll be seeing some snowy delights

[SollyOlly]

 Dancerwithwings Oh yes please! The last few years I appear to have been something of a 'snow dodger', in that wherever I travel, the snow is usually in the previous place! The only honourable exception being my trip to Brussels in December 2022, initially for work and then I took some leave and my family joined me..did the excellent Brussels Xmas Market, and then when we were on the 'big wheel', at the very top, it started to snow! Truly magical. Hopefully I've got enough years left to enjoy more snowy delights.

Edited November 16, 2024 by SollyOlly

[andy_leics22]

This isn't looking that bad as we get closer to the day! Only at t60 now, that's getting into reliable timeframe territory!

[Dancerwithwings]

MIA….you've beat me to it…..it certainly has transformed and seems to be trending on a more southerly trajectory whatever people have there thoughts on it ….it’s certainly looking promising, but we’ll see come this time tomorrow

[Dancerwithwings]

The 18z GEFS is also showing the delights we are after

Edited November 16, 2024 by Dancerwithwings

[SollyOlly]

 Dancerwithwings Oh my dear friend...I am LOVIN THIS!!!!  And it's beyond the FI, or D10, and becoming something realistic and plausible!
 

Now then, just my luck to travel to Leeds when there's no snow, and miss the white stuff in Solihull! Let's hope not. Let's hope for white stuff everywhere...