Midlands regional discussion - into winter 2024/5

[Dancerwithwings]

 SollyOlly

It just so happens, I’ve no works booked in for Tuesday….so I’ll be home hopefully with a smile on my face

[SollyOlly]

 Dancerwithwings enjoy, my dear friend! We've waited long enough after all.

[Dancerwithwings]

It’s the last from me, the latest track of the low is looking good now  

We’ll see where we stand come tomorrow

[markw2680]

Hello my fellow midlanders, is this going to be our time? Feels like ages since we had falling snow let alone a covering.

think of our faces when we open them curtains Tuesday morning to see…..

a blanket or a wet mess lol

[Dancerwithwings]

 markw2680

Welcome back fellow KRO Z….Yes its looking good for us atm….hope may it continue

[andy_leics22]

Morning guys. Well, the UKMO isn't having any of it at the moment. Says an all rain event for us Midlanders apart from on the back edge when it might turn to snow, by which point it will have pretty much cleared away. Mild sector is about 100 miles too far North.

[sheikhy]

 andy_leics22 ye its done deal now!!!

[Battleground Snow]

@sheikhy

Arpege big dump for you.

It is surprising how much models are moving run to run 

00z v 06z

I don't think the hourly harmarnie is good for our mental health either haha

Edited November 17, 2024 by Battleground Snow

[sheikhy]

 Battleground Snow that ridiculous and moves to ecm mate!!!and your right its mentally draining lol!!on the topic of harmonie you got latest update on that on?!!

[Battleground Snow]

8z hasn't updated yet 

This is the 7z

Arome will update in 30 mins, I tend to trust that the most.

Edited November 17, 2024 by Battleground Snow

[Neil Harris]

Model thread is going crazy, about 6 new pages of comments this morning.

Can someone sum it up in here?

Is it going to snow this week?

[Battleground Snow]

@sheikhy.

Arome shifts about 30 miles south.

Another 30 mile shift and the whole of the midlands will be in play...

It's a bit frustrating it will take a while to overcome the wet ground at the start.

Areas above 150 meters would see around 10cm and below 2-5 cm based on arome 

[sheikhy]

 Battleground Snow ukmo in line with harmonie and ecm ans brings snow to us in the midlands!!now on to harmonie and arome...!

[Battleground Snow]

 Neil Harris

Based on the 6z data for Walsall I would say you have a good chance of seeing a few cm by Tuesday morning.

However the models are swinging 30-40 miles per run each time they update at moment 

[andy_leics22]

UKMO on an absolute knife edge Only snow for the Northern Midlands.

[sheikhy]

 andy_leics22 you know what i reckon we just bout get into the snow on ukmo but the fact that it shifted 200 miles since the last run we could be in a good spot!!

[Shezale coventry]

being smack bang in the middle it the country doesn't help i remember 2010 the whole country was snowed in and here in coventry we had 1cm of snow for the whole month! looks like the same again we are ethier to far north or to far south

[Metwatch]

12 minutes ago, Shezale coventry said:

i remember 2010 the whole country was snowed in and here in coventry we had 1cm

Had about 7-8cm in January 2010 looking back through photos of my garden. December 2010 only got photos of Birmingham and had 10cm there. Think there was still a few cm in Coventry too that month.

[Battleground Snow]

 Shezale coventry

The set up that's coming Monday is usually the midlands best chance of disruptive snow, we are normally on the warm and cold air boundary, with the heaviest precipitation as a result. Having 200m+ elevation really helps 

When the wind comes in from the North west or north east we are reliant on areas of showers clumping together from Cheshire or wash and surviving inland.

 

[Shezale coventry]

 Metwatch what made is worse was i drove to Banbury 50 miles from here and it was buried in snow! lets hope we see something this comming week

[BlueHedgehog074]

Had a break from seeing the models and posts on Netweather in the last few days, so it’s a nice surprise the see the colder spell for next week still intact with the -5*C 850 hPa  temperatures covering us from time to time and the possibility of some white stuff.

Will try not to get much hopes up too much, however, but could be a chance to see sone wintry showers sneaking in through the Cheshire Gap from the North-West at times and, hopefully, should tomorrow evenings and Tuesday’s Low behaves itself, perhaps big helping of the white stuff for then. But if not, could be sone other possibilities for more general spells of wintry weather throughout the week. 

Edited November 17, 2024 by BlueHedgehog074
Typos

[Battleground Snow]

@sheikhy.

Latest 9z harmonie.

I'm seeing a increased trend for the back edge snow to continue longer and longer, could still be snowing by 11am on Tuesday, which is good for the south the region, due to the colder uppers fully in by then.

[WelfordRd]

Afternoon all, first post of the year, been gripped watching the model chat. Is it too early to get excited for Monday night here in Hinckely? 

[Battleground Snow]

 WelfordRd

No, your in the prime spot at the moment for the heaviest snow precipitation.

How much of it accumulates is another story.

Edited November 17, 2024 by Battleground Snow

[sheikhy]

 Battleground Snow well together with latest ecm i cannot see anything other than a midlands bullseye!!!!im actually getting a little iffy with the fact that i may be too far north with the way these southern shifts are goin!!