Midlands regional discussion - into winter 2024/5

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 16/11/2024 at 10:43, Midlands Ice Age said:

That isobar map of yours is quite interesting as it shows 2 small depressions travelling along together with the first suddenly deepening over us... that will cause an elongated low and will pull in any colder air from the NE for the second one.

It is similar to my recollections from the 70's I discussed with Shezali above.

My post from yesterday morning when I first spotted the possible situation.....

MIA

[Neil Harris]

a lot of rain this afternoon. Still chucking it down now.

Not many times you'd say it took until the 17th of November for proper rain in the month

[nobble]

Hello again

 

fellow snow lovers and chasers

 

for all this week , I will keep conditions in the north west mids reported

 

had some washing out this morning , could be a while for the line sees any more use …

[sheikhy]

@Battleground Snow hows the 16z harmonie looking?!!!!pressure charts for 5am tuesday morning look like ecm and arpege again!

[Ball Lightning]

Tomorrow morning after the shortwave develops we'll basically know whether we'll be in for something very disruptive, or nothing. There doesn't seem to be anything in between, really, just some remarkable disagreement. Might not need my morning coffee, think the adrenaline of checking the models tomorrow morning will be enough to wake me up!

[Battleground Snow]

 sheikhy

We are already on 17z.

Another jog south I think compared to 16z?

[shunthebartlett92]

Absolutely blinking the worst when we enter the firing line been here so many times before with hours to spare effectively. Fully expect a fail 

[Polar Maritime]

Looking good now for parts of our region..

[phil nw.]

 Polar Maritime

You look to be in a prime spot Rob.With your elevation as well anything that falls there you could keep for a few days at least.

 

[stripeyfox]

could be interesting - a nice chase this early in the winter

 

would be nice to see a few flakes at least!
 

[sheikhy]

 Battleground Snow 18z out yet!!apparently same as the 17z again!!

[MKN]

 sheikhy where do you find these charts?

[sheikhy]

 MKN not sure you know thats whyi have had battleground and mcconner keeping me up to date!!i thought it was on meteociel but cant seem to find it!

[Battleground Snow]

 sheikhy

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique HARMONIE du KNMI

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine HARMONIE 0.03° de KNMI (météo néerlandaise) sur 2 zones (Belgique, Pays-Bas)

arome, arpege and harmonie are the highest resolution models. They tend to be more accurate at closer ranges 

I'm not sure why people are looking at global models like icon and the ukmo at this stage. They are better for the mid term

 

[Ball Lightning]

 Battleground Snow If we only look at the highest-res models, we are in for a treat. Unfortunately the longer range models don't agree (neither do the fax charts).

Edited November 17, 2024 by hailcore

[Battleground Snow]

 hailcore

I'd be very surprised if the warnings don't get adjusted tomorrow morning to cover down to Birmingham.

Tbf it's a very tricky call, will the heavy precipitation be enough to overcome the relatively warm ground temps?

[sheikhy]

 Battleground Snow i think the fact that its been very dry for a few weeks could help as well!!!

[Ball Lightning]

 Battleground Snow We have models showing the snowfalls southern limit being half way up the Peak District, and others saying Bristol? What on earth can be inferred from that? And in general because it's cold rain turning to snow, I'd say probably evaporative cooling is sufficient for some accumulation for most in our area. But, again, the main problem will be the dividing line 0C 850hpa which is still undecided.

[Supacell]

For where I live, the apps are still going with a sleet/rain mix. This doesn't agree with the charts I'm seeing, which appear to show a decent snowfall tomorrow evening and night here. Certainly the nearby Peak District looks to get a dumping though. The peaks should then stay white until at least the weekend.

[andy_leics22]

 Supacell

I'd be very surprised if you only saw rain/sleet from that. Even the GFS has you down as snow throughout and the milder sector is a bit further North than some of the other models. Might be touch and go here in Leicester. I'm expecting it to start as rain and hopefully turn to snow for the last few hours before it clears away.

[andy_leics22]

Just got in from work and had a look at the different models.

 

ECM, Harmonie, ARPEGE, AROME, COSMO and ICON all go for snow for the Midlands. GFS, UKMO and UKV go for snow only on the back edge. Crazy amount of uncertainty from the models at only 24-30 hours away! Never seen the like in all the years i've been on here

[sheikhy]

@Battleground Snow arpege next!!!does it go north or south!!i cannot believe ecm could be wrong here at just 24 hours out!!!

[Battleground Snow]

 sheikhy .

Noticed the harmonie did a nudge north last hour, it has been within a 50 mile range though all day.

Arpege still south, relentless drama.

Hope bluearmy stays up for the ecm 18z as I can't last until 1am haha

Edited November 17, 2024 by Battleground Snow

[snowstorm27x]

1st post of the season as Winter approaches. 

I think we need to have more faith in the Met office not once have they put the snow line anywhere in the Midlands and now were seeing the models backtrack sadly.

Looks like a North event is the outcome. 

Good luck to all for the coming winter may we all see a foot of snow  

 sheikhy 100% North mate 

[shunthebartlett92]

Still huge variation in the short term high res stuff so it may be a nowcasting thing haha. As long as we avoid the dreaded wintry mix i think we will all be happy