Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Troubleatmill]

GEFS Stamps for the 9th showing how wide the spread is

[That ECM]

Every one counting down to midnight except us. We are counting down to 18.20.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Evening guys..is this cold spell in its last legs..gfs mean have gone the wrong way..our only hope is the UKMO.?come on ECM!

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Evening guys..is this cold spell in its last legs..gfs mean have gone the wrong way..our only hope is the UKMO.?come on ECM!

So 12z gfs not an outlier?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It amazes me how some will say they new it was going wrong a while back before it's actually landed and gone wrong in the first place! I mean if you keep changing your stance and predicting several different options..its sods law one of them will be correct!

Personally I think GFS shouldn't be running 4 times a month let alone a day but the ens are showing quite a lot of support to progress those Heights further North. You really do need to reserve judgment until all the ensembles have run. By all means comment on the det runs as they come out but try not to make a complete call on the outcome on that det run alone.

I've seen nothing too change my mind on the overall pattern..while others do a worzel gummidge and keep on changing heads,mine remains firmly fixed..

[AO-]

Good evening all,

Does Anyone know what "is wrong" with the GFS operational?  It has been leaving the "bunch"  for three runs in a row now. It is clearly (again) an outlier. Synoptically it is on its own for quite a while now. 

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes I see all the logic here.

However it has been proven that even with all background factors in alignment the atmosphere can behave unexpectedly. We do not have a definitive grip on these causative pathways. So in my opinion all routes still possible. A very interesting period ahead.

Oh absolutely! The weather is the weather and we do have still to nail this science but speaking objectively if more things were in favour of cold over Atlantic dross would you not naturally point to the chances of cold being higher? That’s just the logical way to forecast for me. I’d do the same if more things point to mild. It has to be evidence based 

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

It amazes me how some will say they new it was going wrong a while back before it's actually landed and gone wrong in the first place! I mean if you keep changing your stance and predicting several different options..its sods law one of them will be correct!

Personally I think GFS shouldn't be running 4 times a month let alone a day but the ens are showing quite a lot of support to progress those Heights further North. You really do need to reserve judgment until all the ensembles have run. By all means comment on the det runs as they come out but try not to make a complete call on the outcome on that det run alone.

I've seen nothing too change my mind on the overall pattern..while others do a worzel gummidge and keep on changing heads,mine remains firmly fixed..

Gfs perb 26 please ecm 12z. Much obliged 

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

So 12z gfs not an outlier?

Havnt seen the full set but the mean wasn't as good days 9 and 10

[danm]

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC will settle the nerves this evening ..

It's a big run possibly the biggest of the season..

Exeter are confident , telecommunications look good, and we have a weakening SPV...

I've never rated GFS and let's be honest GEM / ICON aren't great.

UKMO is a higher resolution model so I'll trust it for now..

 

 

Have we recently had a name change from teleconnections to telecommunications that I’ve not become aware of…?

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, AO- said:

Good evening all,

Does Anyone know what "is wrong" with the GFS operational?  It has been leaving the "bunch"  for three runs in a row now. It is clearly (again) an outlier. Synoptically it is on its own for quite a while now. 

Absolutely ridiculous ,I count at least 3 on the bounce.

 

Just now, danm said:

Have we recently had a name change from teleconnections to telecommunications that I’ve not become aware of…?

Nope.

I rush my posts

[Snowboy111]

I’m not really one to trust the gfs. It was showing a nice easterly as close as 3 days away back in November, out on its own, before it majorly backed down. I think it’s only good for predicting zonal conditions where zonal is already in place. And even then it’ll ‘dartboard’ a lot of low pressures. It’s good at showing easterlies in full on FI, but dire in 5-10 day frames. Just my opinion of course.   

[Metwatch]

21 minutes ago, Derecho said:

Uncertainty still reigns supreme but I'd be more concerned right now if the UKMO was flat and the 12z GFS was blocked.

However, the refusal for pressure to drop pressure over Spain has been highlighted as a concern and if the EC heads in that direction then alarm bells should be ringing.

Heights remaining stubbornly high to our south when there is a strong MJO favouring cold may well be another indicator that climate change is affecting the atmospheric circulation patterns of our winters. Yes we will still see cold spells but in theory it'd require something more dramatic to happen.

I read earlier about the potential slowdown of the AMOC, this is a much more uncertain area of climate science. Some simulations go for colder winters over NW Europe, others don't.

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

LINK.SPRINGER.COM

---

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is...

Either way seeing the global temperature anomaly plots, is it unsurprising that it's getting harder to see cold with such vast swathes of red on the anomaly charts.

A lot of cold around Scandinavia but just can't reach here.

WCS just posted this too:

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Metwatch

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS are a hefty downgrade.

[northwestsnow]

Looks like EC taking the MJO into COD early January ..

Not ideal..

We probably need to make hay ASAP.. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by northwestsnow

[london-snow]

10 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Havnt seen the full set but the mean wasn't as good days 9 and 10

So why make that statement? 

[Harsh Climate]

I would bet my bottom dollar that the ECM is closer to the GFS than UKMO, the ship has firmly sailed for any deep cold before January 14th/15th. 

As per met office long range forecast maybe we can get into some colder than average air late next week, then cling onto it before something more substantial takes place mid January onwards.

 

[The Enforcer]

19 minutes ago, AO- said:

Good evening all,

Does Anyone know what "is wrong" with the GFS operational?  It has been leaving the "bunch"  for three runs in a row now. It is clearly (again) an outlier. Synoptically it is on its own for quite a while now. 

After the GFS operational spews out a series of mild outliers, it has a tendency to show a colder solution, just at the point where its ensembles and other model sets decide on a milder outcome after all.

Edited December 31, 2023 by The Enforcer

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I would bet my bottom dollar that the ECM is closer to the GFS than UKMO, the ship has firmly sailed for any deep cold before January 14th/15th. 

As per met office long range forecast maybe we can get into some colder than average air late next week, then cling onto it before something more substantial takes place mid January onwards.

 

Some GEFS try to build a Scandinavian high like this morning's ECM so there is still some room for this option.

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like EC taking the MJO into COD early January ..

Not ideal..

We probably need to make hay ASAP.. 

better it stalls in 3 and goes into cod than heading through phases 4 and 5. 
it can then re emerge into 7

[TSNWK]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Some GEFS try to build a Scandinavian high like this morning's ECM so there is still some room for this option.

Have you seen ecm..don't you get early sight behind a pay wall?

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, london-snow said:

So why make that statement? 

Just making a point that the cold spell may be slipping away..hopefully ECM will be excellent!

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Have you seen ecm..don't you get early sight behind a pay wall?

No the models come out same time as they appear on meteociel.

[ICE COLD]

31 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

So 12z gfs not an outlier?

The mean is rubbish now on the GEFS . It’s all gone titts up again . If we cast are minds back to the end of November it was looking great going into December and within a few days (bang ) there went December. Now looking towards Xmas the signs etc were good (bang ) that all disappeared. Towards new year and January all looking good . Ssw was odds on up to 80%+ chance on the ECM (bang) goes that one . And now this colder spell is looking well not even a cold spell , just drier with a few frosts . It’s depressing and extremely frustrating. Maybe the end of Jan or feb will deliver but i dont hold much hope . The only plus is the meto are still onboard but knowing are luck that’ll be gone in the next few days . 
 

ps By the way I’m not just basing this on the gfs and GEFS . Across all modeling this has downgraded this colder spell . 
 

ECM ENS and GEFS mean below 

Edited December 31, 2023 by ICE COLD

[KyleHenry]

21 minutes ago, AO- said:

Good evening all,

Does Anyone know what "is wrong" with the GFS operational?  It has been leaving the "bunch"  for three runs in a row now. It is clearly (again) an outlier. Synoptically it is on its own for quite a while now. 

I believe that the GFS is reflecting its observations on the SPV’s return to the default position, after current displacement. Therefore it has a habit of speed running the modelling dynamics.

At 144z it predicts the TPV to move 80% into Newfoundland and 20% into Kara sea. Not only that it has multiple LP spawning off Greenland in a highly condensed area. 
 

UKMO has the TPV split 50/50, less congested with slacker upper air. Anyway we will remember this moment in a weeks time and decide how correct the GFS was/ wasn’t l.