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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

Catacol

By Catacol
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

This thread is for model related chat and discussion only.
Please head over to the Winter chat thread if your post isn't about the models. If you'd like localised weather chat, make sure you've joined your regional group. Or if you just want to moan about the weather or models, or would like to ramp up whatever may be on the way - there is now a dedicated ramp and moans thread.

Please use the insightful reaction on posts you think should be copied to the model highlights thread.

As ever, please keep to the community guidelines, the guiding principles of which are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Mcconnor8 Veteran

Mcconnor8

Posted
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Lancing, South coast
Posted

image.thumb.png.08c55b486e2d2a2421b35fe724097f71.pngimage.thumb.png.8e4903092d26b53bc110164fc6a5ca19.pngimage.thumb.png.62f5a175dbd7a070a1aede35726020bc.png

Looks like it will be pretty windy in the South on Tuesday afternoon/evening in any of these charts come off, the UKMO isn't as bad with the low further South.

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MattH
MattH

Hi. I just wanted to create a post from an educational perspective and also be a point of reference regarding the importance of the GSDM and the AAM on the medium and long term. Hopefully, anyone

MATTWOLVES 3
MATTWOLVES 3

Good God...its been my dad's funeral today..just a small service for close family as he didn't want a big fuss! This may seen insensitive me posting weather charts at such a time..but I will tell you

snowice
snowice

Premature ecmjulcation.

Posted Images

  • Popular Post
carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Sometimes UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Sometimes UK
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Evening all from Stockholm. Currently -5c but -10c expected at the mid-night hour. Apparently, the tradition over here is to go out on the balcony and toast your neighbours with a glass of champers in one hand and wave a sparkler in the other. Me , being a bit of a mardy will probably stay indoors in the warmth with the comfort of a nice glass of malt . Miserable sod you think ! Anyway back to the latest UKMO run that shows a bit of a ramp for coldies . Will it deliver ?  I am going for yes. Very cold air over Northern Russia currently making headway across The Baltic then some progress into The British Isles next weekend. Its an immovable force this time ! Thats my New Years wish for you lot. Rock on UKMO !

I wish you all a Happy New Year.

 Cheers

C

UKMHDOPEU12_168_2.png

Edited by carinthian
  • Like 8
  • Happy New Year 25
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

I hope I'm allowed to post these, but, where're the 1947 and 1963 reduxes? Because I cannae see them: 🤔

image.thumb.png.61fb809322292c0550cca5ba8cdae30a.png   image.thumb.png.5e15e7deb4bb7e55fbda79b273844ec7.png

image.thumb.png.cae3411cc678e19f0e8b83de753e7bd3.png   image.thumb.png.e2fc985070f59e5735c3fd9e64c77c86.png

image.thumb.png.01823759c2bf244a4ea64ef6936c8ee1.png   image.thumb.png.805c2a6fbadff69c0091a5603b7dfbca.png

I do hope that ACTUAL charts contribute something to the discussion? 🤔

And, FYI, I hope the GFS is wrong! 👍

 

Edited by Methuselah
Oops!
  • Like 2
  • Happy New Year 6
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted

This ( 11 DAYS AWAY ) Doesn't look anything like the MET update 

image.thumb.png.ae31dbddab7716ceeb5de1e85690c61b.png

So either there has been a hugely different signal today and MET are 24 hours behind or GFS is just throwing something into the mix for discussion.

 

MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, MJB said:

This ( 11 DAYS AWAY ) Doesn't look anything like the MET update 

image.thumb.png.ae31dbddab7716ceeb5de1e85690c61b.png

So either there has been a hugely different signal today and MET are 24 hours behind or GFS is just throwing something into the mix for discussion.

 

Or maybe us lot are constantly 24hrs ahead ....you know what I'm saying 😉 

Ps..im waiting for E17 boy to say our search for a winter wonderland continues.. then we will know its curtains.. 🤣

Ohh you've proven me wrong @E17boy 🤣

giphy.gif

Edited by MATTWOLVES 3
  • Like 3
  • Happy New Year 2
CoventryWeather Experienced

CoventryWeather

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm thundery summers, sunshine (and lots of it)
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted (edited)

T96 ECM v UKMO

ECM1-96(1).thumb.gif.ece028bb44a8d1313a399ea70837c064.gif

ukmo-0-96.thumb.png.6fc7a712aa9a4e792f308ce329870e26.png

 

Edited by CoventryWeather
Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

This ( 11 DAYS AWAY ) Doesn't look anything like the MET update 

image.thumb.png.ae31dbddab7716ceeb5de1e85690c61b.png

So either there has been a hugely different signal today and MET are 24 hours behind or GFS is just throwing something into the mix for discussion.

 

OMG

You actually think the GFS might be right over the MET 11 days away. 
 

I can’t read this thread anymore. 

  • Like 2
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  • Happy New Year 5
E17boy Experienced

E17boy

Posted
Posted

If GFS is correct in the new pattern then expect the Met outlook to change in the next couple of days. I really hope not.  We just need to stay on our seats I am sure there are still many twists and turns to come. The nerves hold on. 
 

Will WE FIND OUR WINTER WONDERLAND IN 2024?????

Happy new year all 

regards 😊😊😊😊

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  • Happy New Year 4
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

OMG

You actually think the GFS might be right over the MET 11 days away. 
 

I can’t read this thread anymore. 

HA HA ermmmmmmmmmmmmmm no not at all

The headline was, it looks nothing like todays Met update  whooooooooooooosssssssssshhhhhhhhhhh

  • Like 3
Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

OMG

You actually think the GFS might be right over the MET 11 days away. 
 

I can’t read this thread anymore. 

To be fair met office could change their long range forecast 3pm tomorrow to something less favourable. Also just like anyone else or any model they can also be wrong.

Don't see how that difference in opinion is a reason to not read the thread anymore.  Anyways happy new year!

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, Harsh Climate said:

To be fair met office could change their long range forecast 3pm tomorrow to something less favourable. Also just like anyone else or any model they can also be wrong.

Don't see how that difference in opinion is a reason to not read the thread anymore.  Anyways happy new year!

I wasn't saying that, I was highlighting ....clearly very poorly that as the met update is only a few hours old, I'd be amazed if it was so far wrong

  • Like 1
cheshire snow Maestro

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

ECM 120hrs

IMG_2219.png

  • Like 3
Coldie24 Accomplished

Coldie24

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
Just now, MJB said:

I wasn't saying that, I was highlighting ....clearly very poorly that as the met update is only a few hours old, I'd be amazed if it was so far wrong

The Met Office aren’t the be all everyone makes out to be.

GFS could well be right again just as it was in early December over the pathetic snowless cold spell.

Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

To be fair met office could change their long range forecast 3pm tomorrow to something less favourable. Also just like anyone else or any model they can also be wrong.

Don't see how that difference in opinion is a reason to not read the thread anymore.  Anyways happy new year!

They are not going to change their forecast based on a GFS 11 day chart. 

Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted
Just now, cheshire snow said:

ECM 120hrs

IMG_2219.png

Is it going with gfs hope not.

CoventryWeather Experienced

CoventryWeather

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm thundery summers, sunshine (and lots of it)
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
Posted
Just now, cheshire snow said:

ECM 120hrs

IMG_2219.png

Not as bad as the GFS. Seems like a mid solution. Let's see how it ends up..

Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

The Met Office aren’t the be all everyone makes out to be.

GFS could well be right again just as it was in early December over the pathetic snowless cold spell.

It was wrong in the early Dec cold spell. The ECM was never on board and proved to be correct. 

Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, MJB said:

I wasn't saying that, I was highlighting ....clearly very poorly that as the met update is only a few hours old, I'd be amazed if it was so far wrong

 

😄

 

5241b08c47dcc41152f9e6168069ab97_w200.gif.f926d41ff208ee8818e40c97e0f76043.gif

  • Like 1
mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
Just now, cheshire snow said:

ECM 120hrs

IMG_2219.png

It's not as good as the UKMO-GM day 5 chart sadly.  Let's see where this leads but UK High is probably the favourite.

  • Thanks 1
MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, Cloud 10 said:

 

😄

 

5241b08c47dcc41152f9e6168069ab97_w200.gif.f926d41ff208ee8818e40c97e0f76043.gif

Throw me the ladder extension 

  • Like 1
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Carnage in here. Half way house would be good enough to let heights build. 

Coldie24 Accomplished

Coldie24

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
Just now, Spah1 said:

It was wrong in the early Dec cold spell. The ECM was never on board and proved to be correct. 

ECM failed to spot the mid Atlantic block that GFS did.

Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The Met Office aren’t the be all everyone makes out to be.

GFS could well be right again just as it was in early December over the pathetic snowless cold spell.

Can you successfully predict the weather in four weeks' time? Neither can I!

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