General summer chat

[danm]

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Doesn't "no sign of a heatwave" mean that there isn't one around the corner?

Yes. So basically no heatwave within the next week to 10 days. Beyond that, no one can tell. 

[LetItSnow]

Not buying the assumption of either a washout, cold July or a sustained pressure rise at day 10. Only this month we saw a week of high pressure flip to cold, low pressure overnight. Conversely many a cool summer spell has been downgraded closer to the timeframe. Really no one can tell. And I'm smart enough to ignore teleconnections! 

[Summerlover2006]

 LetItSnow! realistically the heat will build average temperatures during the second week temperatures getting warmer in the third week and heatwave territory in the third week.

[davehsug]

4.30 in the afternoon, approaching mid summer, and you need a lamp on, and not for something good like a thunderstorm, just thick drizzly dross. Only in the UK.

[IcySpicy]

 Summerlover2006  I have a feeling like it might be a super average month throughout. Mostly 20-23C, some days maybe a bit warmer and sunnier, others showery and very average temps. This goes for Estonia and the SE UK. NW UK and Scandinavia will probably have it worse.

I know it's not the most reliable model but the CFS also has this idea of a flat NAO+ situation. Will probably change towards the end of the month but I wouldn't be surprised if this is how a large chunk oof July turns oout.

[weatherguru14]

 CryoraptorA303

Why use the word at all?? just mention the weather? rather than throw in heatwaves?? All i would say is the weather is looking garbage and leave it at there 

 Summerlover2006 and this is going to happen? realistically ? 

[Summerlover2006]

 weatherguru14 why wouldn’t it happen there are many outlooks that are saying warmer conditions are going to come in during the second week ??

[weatherguru14]

 Summerlover2006 Because we've been down this road for years and years...Impossible to predict. when we get closer to the time frame. it will peter out. to  3/4 warm days and thats it. Nothing to get excited about at all.. This summer has been terrible so far. and will continue in that vain for the rest of the summer. well until late August early September when the weather decides to settle down. 

[Summerlover2006]

 weatherguru14 I disagree a lot there it’s a general theme that are summers are just getting more warm even the bad summers of the decade so far like 2023 and 2020  we had almost a 3 week warm spell in June in 2023 and in 2020 we had a week heatwave in June a hot day in July and a week heatwave in august it’s I think it’s a far better bet to predict a warm spell in the summer then it staying cool apart from 4 days the entire summer.

[weatherguru14]

You disagree on this summer being poor?. last summer was poor  June was hot after that we had 6 whole weeks of crap. 

I dont wan't heatwaves i want more settled weather with more what i would consider summer like days. so far this summer. (in my neck of the woods) we have had about 5 days at the end of May and about 6/7 days in  June.. the first 10 days of July look dreadful for most of the UK 

[Summerlover2006]

 weatherguru14 did I ever say that I’m just saying it’s rare to get a summer that is unsettled the entire way through so there is definitely a big chance of improvement At some point in the next month and a half.

[weatherguru14]

next month and half .so when the summers over? wonderful. 

[Summerlover2006]

 weatherguru14 ???? I said in the next month and a half not in a month and a half.

[damianslaw]

Normally ignore any headline tabloid weather stories.. but did glance at today's Northern Echo story, which apparently states next UK heatwave on the way in 'days', after weeks of hot weathet, latter statement simply incorrect... there is then reference to 'net weather' maps and forecasts and a statement 28-30 degrees will occur in SE England on the 14th July (14 days away), what a load of rubbish... who gets paid to write such hyperbole!

Edited June 30, 2024 by damianslaw

[weatherguru14]

 Summerlover2006 I know so could be another month and half? so middle of August ? you seem to be throwing out timelines 

[Summerlover2006]

 weatherguru14 the exact words I said were at some point in next month not in a month in a half so I’m not saying that we are going to have to wait until mid august I’m saying we’re probably get some warmth between now and then.

Edited July 1, 2024 by Summerlover2006

[TROY]

Well another cloudy grey and chilly start to another summers day. Might pop down the newsagent and get a daily Express, they might be telling us a heatwave is on the way.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

We need some prolonged heat - wheat field next to me is still bright green. Harvest started on July 12th last year, not chance of that happening this year. 

[Arctic Hare]

At the moment I'd probably categorise this as a "meh" summer. Boring in some respects, really. The lack of rain in June was a huge relief, and that alone prevents it being down there with disasters like 2007 and 2012. It's not looking like it's going to be remembered for much else at this point, though. Things can obviously change, and an actually great August would be quite something if we got one. I just don't have much faith in that happening!

Edited July 1, 2024 by Arctic Hare
typo

[Summerlover2006]

Question for everybody as we go through yet another spell of below average temperatures do you think we might be set for are first below average summer in years personally I would say no as it is very easy for a summer to be warmer then average nowadays like 2020 despite notable bad periods was warmer then average and there is still a lot of time to recover and the modals are showing a warm up next week to average but it’s still something to think about and would be very interesting in what was suppose to be the warmest year on record.

[raz.org.rain]

 Summerlover2006 I would say keep an eye on the second half of July and August. August in particular looks to have potential to make this a backended summer.

[Cwmbran Eira]

 raz.org.rain Funny you should mention that. I'm getting proper early summer 1995 vibes these last few days, which was very dry and ended with a fantastic August. I seem to remember June 1995 was mainly dry but periods of cloud and drizzle very similar to what i'm experiencing now. 

[Don]

This may cheer up the hot summer lovers?!  Just hope any prolonged heat doesn't arrive in September!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_jas_v2.pdf

[damianslaw]

 Don Reading the text it states chances of hot weather simply because of background warming. Little actual forecasting of synoptics.. other than slight chance of higher than average pressure. 

I don't recall the last time any of these forecasts went for anything other than near average or above against 91-20 average.

 

[weatherguru14]

I see Darren Bett is saying  June will  turn out to be around average temperature wise.Yeah right just like May was the hottest on record..