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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

Stuff like this raises an eyebrow, especially that northward trend of morning convection. Im still very unsure about tomorrows outbreak but there is no denying there's big potential in it. 

image.thumb.png.6341bc3cbe997e4e2ad2577b57900307.pngtrend-hrrr-2024122722-f018.refcmp_uh001h.us_se.thumb.gif.b055c13c763bb9f8fecfb4c5c9b771ff.gif

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

Well decided to stay up for the 00z hrrr, i know i havent been all that confident in this setup but alarm bells are really starting to sound for me now, big upgrade.

floop-hrrr-2024122800.refcmp_uh001h.us_se(1).thumb.gif.108444de95ba25b9aad5f113ba2822c4.giffloop-hrrr-2024122800.sbcape_hodo.us_se.thumb.gif.43b3b38bee1770cb02ad3a4bbd068339.giffloop-hrrr-2024122800.ehi03.us_se.thumb.gif.9c7a4d076747b143e23a60817ed98a3c.giffloop-hrrr-2024122800.850wh.us_se.thumb.gif.56e26a985a7def50a13d090606114e7b.giffloop-hrrr-2024122800.500wh.conus.thumb.gif.ab41fbb4e14de15a81ae25a2e5c26abb.giffloop-hrrr-2024122800.srh03.us_se.thumb.gif.4d88b0b39f601c8659b23fdc362910df.giffloop-hrrr-2024122800.sfctd-imp.us_se.thumb.gif.e1769b3128837bbb965ab69e80a2590d.gif

Not only am i seeing a large squall line with semi-discrete/QLCS tornado threat into the early hours of the morning, i am also seeing multiple confluence bands ahead of the line firing off discrete supercells. Models often struggle to fire off these bands so i suspect the threat is even greater than shown, especially into the late evening into Eastern Mississippi/Alabama 

image.thumb.png.0208b0b9e1ce56c73bd1fc9883098cf9.pngimage.thumb.png.dbc4ed6cb81f7753d015f8a524a4be89.pngimage.thumb.png.b00859d6efc26c80e9f48c1dca42de68.pngimage.thumb.png.4b546199c6bee8a990a5c7402604128e.png

This was pointed out on twitter, note the lack of morning convection/messy storm mode on the latest (right) image.

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Also pointed out on twitter, this outbreak has been characterised by good thermodynamics (instability) with this wind shear being on the lesser side (for these December outbreaks anyway) on the  00z HRRR there has been a massive 850mb/low level jet wind shear uptrend, this is something i genuinely didnt think would happen with this setup and is an incredibly concerning trend given how potent the instability is already.

850mb wind strength at around 6pm local time for the past 5 HRRR runs, 

trend-hrrr-2024122800-f024.850wh.us_se.thumb.gif.19e6479dc10e0de15c5264798513234b.gif

image.thumb.png.bb7bc71247477a6064926244f2ed1b58.pngimage.thumb.png.97a31f34ccd098964440d7afd32e55d4.pngimage.thumb.png.d5ff204a4e03125076727587fde73e84.png

I really dont like overhyping these things and there will always be fail modes but this event is starting to look real nasty, wouldn't surprise me if the SPC pulled the trigger on a moderate risk with a 15%# risk for EF2+ tornadoes. 

A few soundings from across the warm sector,

image.thumb.png.82d447cfc02f6bddf0b4ea158ded758d.pngimage.thumb.png.9dcad6f7115c52ac795b2931fe077b63.pngimage.thumb.png.d3041f6eba219a789543e2a00aed4408.pngimage.thumb.png.d68eec775109540f5e83a7987d2b63ac.pngimage.thumb.png.a2762fce031f9b5f05bea97adc6e31c2.pngimage.thumb.png.ba6bb1324ebcc45aefda63f02405ec11.pngimage.thumb.png.602f96e6139105fbb4d8cd5b06d4a957.pngimage.thumb.png.d2f2fd0976bdf016ea9b111de71e931c.pngimage.thumb.png.406fafc58aa54265af7b2a6cf19291b2.pngimage.thumb.png.2e0f7b7d42dfd7886fe985b0109d83dc.png

I will point out that the HRRR is the 'ideal' scenario with morning convection not hampering the warm sectors recovery at all, other models are still unresolved with this. 

Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

SPC have upped the event in the Deep South to Moderate now and a pretty large one too. Some concerning wording regarding long track EF3+ tornadoes being possible. 
 

WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook...

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

Full SPC discussion

An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected.

...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States...

A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon.

These storms will have potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as this activity increases in coverage. Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range. This environment will support supercell development, with a potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the mid to late afternoon.

Supercells that can tap the higher surface dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of these will be possible.

The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region. Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by the end of the period.

..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024

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Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

Just past 7am local time and we have our first tornado, spc has kept a moderate risk but suggest a probability upgrade is possible further down the line today if uncertainties and fail modes lessen 

 

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Thrapston | Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Thrapston | Northamptonshire
Posted

Looks to be quite a potent outbreak later on today. Kinematics seem great for this event. Although there are some bust-modes including the fact that the lift and support for strong supercells is rather weak infront of the main line with a measly 1000 j/kg in the area, so it could just be shower fest. If supercells can fire they could be very powerful if they tap into the LLJ, cyclic tornado producers and violent tornado risk could materialise. If supercells can fire in the next 15 hours and stay discrete the risk of tornadoes is there as seen already.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

image.thumb.png.9e8d0e6327864bb3fe1c55dc1a1283ce.pngimage.thumb.png.f553533b4eac922be590935871152f01.pngimage.thumb.png.8c1a66171a586ad2428c921d82001d5d.pngimage.thumb.png.8eba443809c845fb0db719acf2efdf28.png 

Per SPC-"Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms."

Lots of clearing across the warm sector ongoing right now

COD-GOES-East-regional-southeast_01.20241228.162617-overmap-barsnone.thumb.gif.31fbf5800d44b6d10639da2f900e9498.gifCOD-GOES-East-regional-southeast.radar.20241228.163000.gif-overmap-barsnone.thumb.gif.5a4b68adf225e9d3ce15d9bbe8a9f037.gif

Already significant instability of 3000+ j/kg cape building across the region.

image.thumb.png.5b17e701dae6497cf7b2aecdbb44daea.pngimage.thumb.png.c89d2225482d86853391bb44b6bb9315.png

Pretty clear a significant tornado outbreak looks likely tonight with multiple rounds of supercells with all hazards including strong-violent long tracked tornadoes.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

Ryan and Reed are live

 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Lightning, Tornado, Hurricane, Heatwave
  • Location: Macclesfield, Cheshire
Posted

As is Brandon Copic.

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

One thing ive noticed so far, mid level EML dry slot much more than expected, lots of clear blue skies across the warm sector, instability about to skyrocket.

COD-GOES-East-regional-southeast_01.20241228.170117-overmap-barsnone.thumb.gif.c51e537cb3a3d220c7cf3ae4c3135c18.gif

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

Look at all that clearing, note the multiple confluence bands across Louisiana and Eastern Texas, a classic looking and high-end Dixie alley tornado outbreak looks to unfold in the coming hours.

The storm prediction center is very likely having conversations about an upgrade to high risk, storm mode uncertainty is likely to only thing holding them off at this point.

Gf5wd7JWcAAl5M2.thumb.jpeg.4cee5c9e3282ca87ab698d81ea9cce29.jpeg

Here is an observed sounding from Shreveport, Louisiana 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

A large and dangerous tornado is on the ground near Splendora, Texas, a PDS warning is active. Homes may sustain significant damage and mobile homes will more than likely be completely destroyed.

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

This is an incredible observed sounding from Lake Charles, Louisiana. Wind shear hasnt moved into the region yet but  a very potent thermodynamic environment is shown.

image.thumb.png.67f3961f5db7ebdb30358485babce43d.png

Also, check out this organising discrete supercell in the open warm sector

image.thumb.png.618002105bf3c1b44bd54bdb536b0b0c.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

This tornado has been on the ground for 90+ mins now, even became a waterspout for a short period as it crossed Trinity Bay.

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

This renegade discrete supercell going to be creating some big problems until it gets absorbed into the qlcs 

download(1).thumb.png.b0187dcf8b61b6ace93d71ffd2930172.pngdownload(2).thumb.png.04944a2d518e1d312ef8bd449159e164.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

 

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

 

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
  • Weather Preferences: Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in
Posted (edited)

Potential for another round of severe weather around 4th- 5th as a potentially negatively tilted trough comes through. Moisture, instability, lapse rates and surface low strength still yet to be determined. 

ECM

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EPS

image.thumb.png.3ebf28fa4e46cab0f814838278077d13.pngimage.thumb.png.22046eb315470db03fb99f41cf6d0afa.pngimage.thumb.png.b74060eaff955163ea12de454b61b544.pngimage.thumb.png.ac57415a4142f0b5dc1ac953902b3e62.png

GFS

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GEFS

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Edited by WeatherArc
  • Like 2

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