Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is more than interesting! It’s starting to remind me of 2018. I’d take that 2 months earlier!

Yes - although it would be about 3-4 weeks earlier or even less assuming it gets there in the end! - still a stonker though even if we could repeat it in mid Feb.

[Cold Winter Night]

I have a feeling we're not in Kansas zonal territory anymore.

EC and GFS at 240h are really not that far apart.

These developments have been present in the extended ensembles, but now also on Operationals.
Indeed indications that the zonal phase might not at all be as long as many fear.

[sebastiaan1973]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is more than interesting! It’s starting to remind me of 2018. I’d take that 2 months earlier!

You mean 2 weeks? 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - although it would be about 3-4 weeks earlier or even less assuming it gets there in the end! - still a stonker though even if we could repeat it in mid Feb.

Interesting

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

You mean 2 weeks? 

Yea typo sorry! 2 weeks earlier!

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - although it would be about 3-4 weeks earlier or even less assuming it gets there in the end! - still a stonker though even if we could repeat it in mid Feb.

Yeah a complete typo! Haha! I’ll edit now! And yes agreed it could very well be the main course and has just as much  background support if not more than the current cold spell had!

[mountain shadow]

All eyes on the clusters.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

This cold of 2018 was impressive. Still at the fourth of march I was able to skate. The 28th of February had a record cold tmax. Which is in our warming world quite remarkable. 

don't forget mini beast also! cancelled the half marathon, blizzards even here but short lived

[Uncertainty]

EC

GFS

 

Atlantic trough digging and stalling, U.K. high linking to building Ural heights.
 

The GEFS really started seeing this evo tonight too, a lot more amplification in evidence.  The mjo signal is really quite strong and has been consistent.

 

I personally think its crucial we get the decent amplitude strongly into phase 7… here’s the composite to illustrate:

 

The strat vortex continues to look highly perturbed 

For me, this February is going to define our perceptions of this winter. We’ve had two cold spells (early Dec and now) - both have somewhat flattered to deceive but they have nevertheless offered more than most years. Should February slip away, much like the last few years, the winter will be viewed as a massive forecasting bust. On the other hand, if something akin to the gfs 12z comes off and persists then it will be a successful forecast. 
 

No pressure then models… 

Edited January 16, 2024 by Uncertainty

[Captain Shortwave]

Worth mentioning that only 24 hours or so ago we were looking at a broad west to south west flow for week 2, then the models are slowly started to make the Euro ridge more amplified and now we have subtle hints that the high could amplify enough to potentially establish a blocking high to the east or potentially even north east of the UK. 

[CoventryWeather]

Still talking in FI and yet models still unsure about tonight's potential in the south..

Couple of rogue ensembles showing a more northerly track in the low but remains a low possibility. 

Quick look at current radar and satellite suggests it may be a tad north of modelling but interesting late radar watching for southern regions. 

[Djdazzle]

I’ll join you all for the ride, but with zero expectations anything cold will come of it.

Having said that, the archives show plenty of instances where a seemingly zonal pattern quickly turned into a blocking one.

It would be great for a flip to happen as quickly as we’re about to flip to mild.

[damianslaw]

My attention has been on the very short term recently, so was quite surprised on viewing the GFS and ECM this eve, hinting at scandi heights by the end of Jan, thanks to heights building north from our south and amplifying the jet significantly, ridging NE, with siberian heights lurking to the east ready to join hands.

Quite a marked change from what was appearing to be a more flatter atlantic pattern. Its highly plausible and fits in with other signals being seen for Feb attributed to AAM, Mountain torques and MJO cycle discussed by others with far more knowledge than me, but the models might be a little hasty with such developments. 

Might we exchange a arctic blast for a long fetch southwesterly and then a long drawn easterly, what an odd sequence that would be, but this winter does feel different to many a recent one, prone to sudden abrupt changes. 

Edited January 16, 2024 by damianslaw

[SqueakheartLW]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

My attention has been on the very short term recently, so was quite surprised on viewing the GFS and ECM this eve, hinting at scandi heights by the end of Feb, thanks to heights building north from our south and amplifying the jet significantly, ridging NE, with siberian heights lurking to the east ready to join hands.

Quite a marked change from what was appearing to be a more flatter atlantic pattern. Its higgly plausible and fits in with other signsls being seen for Feb attributed to AAM, Mountain torques and MJO cycle discussed by others with far more knowledge than me, but the models might be a little hasty with such developments. 

Might we exchange a arctic blast for a long fetch southwesterly and then a long drawn easterly, what an odd sequence that would be, but third winter does feel different to many a recent one, prone to sudden abrupt changes. 

Don't you mean end of Jan and not end of Feb?

 

Edit

LOL, guess @damianslawspotted the mistake 

Edited January 16, 2024 by SqueakheartLW

[IDO]

2m temps - 850s - mean:

 

The GFS op a BIG outlier for London.

The NH mean similar to this morning. Signs of maybe a retrogression of the Euro high back to the Azores with the tPV lobe over Greenland moving east and a possible Atlantic ridge sometime in the first week of Feb; still my call. But the GFS op maybe seeing something that could override that signal, so one to watch...

[KTtom]

Not saying it wont happen in Feb, Met certainly hinting along the lines, however I think gfs got a little over excited this evening and may be a tad progressive with the idea....just beat me IDO

Edited January 16, 2024 by KTtom

[AO-]

Looking at EC, we can definitely see a trend. However, very mild charts are to be seen within "the reliable" (i.e. up to day 10). I think there is a lot of agreement synoptically and the only question within this timeframe is how mild/warm will it get. The final chart is very mild at first glance, but is a potent chart to give a rather cold start of February. I really get some 2012 vibes. Keeping the minor warming in mind (in two days) it all makes sense.

Edited January 16, 2024 by AO-
Chart added

[Tim Bland]

39 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It’s been fascinating output viewing and this is from someone who has come as close to a channel runner in a long time.

 

However, bring on the next chase and if luck goes against us then I’d rather have a chance than look at flat pattern for months.

 

So close to something special for southern areas. Still a chance if a few flurries looking at UKV. For most this has been an other snowless cold spell. Let’s hope feb delivers at least 1 measurable snowfall for all 

[minus10]

Signs of the north eastern amplification on the 12z gefs..

Edited January 16, 2024 by minus10

[Singularity]

19 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Worth mentioning that only 24 hours or so ago we were looking at a broad west to south west flow for week 2, then the models are slowly started to make the Euro ridge more amplified and now we have subtle hints that the high could amplify enough to potentially establish a blocking high to the east or potentially even north east of the UK. 

Should trends continue, this will be one of the clearest demonstrations I can recall of how the AAM/GWO diagnostic tool in conjunction with MJO forecasts plus experience of model behaviour can be used to anticipate model bias of the sort that sometimes points entire ensemble suites in the wrong direction.

Could it possibly go that smoothly with a high established over Scandinavia by the end of the month… plausibly, yes. Not that I’d go as far as betting on it just yet - the road has a habit of being rocky UK & Ireland-wise, narrow lands as we are!

[damianslaw]

15 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Don't you mean end of Jan and not end of Feb?

 

Edit

LOL, guess @damianslawspotted the mistake 

Oh yes, trouble with quick typing!

[LetItSnow]

Probably been said in greater detail but a look at the models shows a signal around day ten for a pressure rise to our south and increasing cold pool to our east. Could this be the result of said telecommunications that have been talked about so extensively? Short term pain but maybe long term gain. Not placing any bets at this time but I find it interesting and I think by the 26th we could be in greater territory. Plus if we can build the high closer to us then in the short term more seasonable conditions further south. It's an interesting thing that the signal has popped up all of a sudden. Are the models finally able to pick up on the telecommunications (hate overusing that word but I don't know the more technical flibber flabber!) and we're seeing this? Hope so! Feeling better today after some rather miserable charts the past two days.

I'll leave you some examples of why mild interludes aren't always the be all and end all of things. Check the dates of these charts.

 (especially this one!)

[Nick2373]

12z here we go look at the members towards the end of the month pattern change coming up quite possibly sooner than we think

Edited January 16, 2024 by Nick2373

[Scott Ingham]

35 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Interesting

The musing about scandi heights started back on the 3rd of January buddy some 13days ago with yourself and Battleground Snow and I think even a week before that I discussed this evolution with Catacol so if the GDSM products can nail this period for a second time this winter around a month before it happens it just adds even more evidence to this ever growing meteorological science used for long time forecasting! The hard bit is getting the lag periods and timings right. The 15th was correct it’s a waiting game for the 29th. There’s been so much to learn this winter!

[Womble]

42 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

I have a feeling we're not in Kansas zonal territory anymore.

EC and GFS at 240h are really not that far apart.

These developments have been present in the extended ensembles, but now also on Operationals.
Indeed indications that the zonal phase might not at all be as long as many fear.

Yay. Bring on the next (wild goose) chase!

[Met4Cast]

The GFS 12z deterministics idea of a Scandi high is a huge outlier amongst the ensembles.. but it’s an interesting one. 

It’d usually be rather easy to ignore given it’s an outlier but what it shows does fit with the background forcing that has been discussed to death in recent weeks. 

MJO progression east > +FT > +MT > Rising AAM tendency with the MJO eventually pushing into the Pacific, tropics & sub tropics then singing together for high latitude blocking. 

I wonder if the GFS Det is picking up on this signal but being too progressive with it? Evidently there’s zero support currently but it’s a very curious one. The next few days could be interesting.