Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[bluearmy]

18z looks closer to the 12z ecm than the 12z gfs 

still amplified to our east but not as sharp as the 12z gfs 

V reasonable continuity 

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Here we go!  Pub run T222:

You can see the amplification first with the trough in the Atlantic.  

There seems to be a second bout of heights around day 10 that will hopefully lead to something juicy down the line.

[ICE COLD]

Let’s hope this starts gathering some real pace . Another run more blocking to the NE .

[mountain shadow]

Generally I don't pay to much attention to the models showing Scandi Highs in Winter at long range as they're such a rare beast.

However, when I see run to run consistency like this, then my interest increases. 

Will the signal still be there tomorrow though!

[Singularity]

A key timeframe is around Fri 26th so 9-11 days from now. This is where model bias tends to show its hand most strongly as it’s far enough out for corrections not to have progressed very far but not so far out that uncertainty largely smothers it.

Will be interesting to see how things go the next couple of days. Not saying we’ll definitely see a convergence on something along the lines of the GFS 12z but IMO it was a decent effort given the AAM & MJO situation. Just got a bit overly dramatic late on perhaps as it happened to steer a pocket of particularly cold air across to S UK.

[WeatherArc]

 Honestly I'm just glad of the change this cold spell has brought, was really getting fed up of the Atlantic fronts and days of cloud, been some lovely clear days around here the past week with a few frosts. Looking ahead i think the next winter chase will be sometime late jan into early feb, CanSIPS has a very interesting outlook 

Still got plenty of days ahead of snow potential, i only really give up hope in late march.

For anyone interested the CanSIPS output for summer also looks good, pretty much below average precip from now till September

 

[Ice Day]

24 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Generally I don't pay to much attention to the models showing Scandi Highs in Winter at long range as they're such a rare beast.

However, when I see run to run consistency like this, then my interest increases. 

Will the signal still be there tomorrow though!

Yes, the consistency of this showing in the models is notable.  The Control at 216 / 228 is showing something similar.

 

The mean, whilst not such a strong signal is on the same page at day 9

Also interesting that this isn't out in deepest darkest FI, the amplification starts around day 8 so we won't have to wait too long to see if the models are overreacting to a signal, or something really is afoot.  Tomorrow morning's runs will be instructive in this regard.

 

[Rocheydub]

I think I commented about a week or so ago about at the end of most of the runs, you could see the NWP trying to drain low heights away from Svalbard. Would be quite the 2010 redux if it did count down to T-0! 

[Battleground Snow]

Certainly a growing number of ensembles trending towards a blocked pattern, hopefully we see this grow over the coming days.

A few examples for the 29th of January.

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, Day_9 said:

Hands up who remembers this time last week…… it was all “in the bag”…… until it wasn’t 

You're dreaming mate, no one said anything was 'in the bag' & don't really recall anyone mentioning snow for that reason. I think we're all seasoned enough to know not to wax the sledges till at least a couple of days before & well due Northerlies will always have that wishbone effect & we were just very incredibly unlucky. Me I'm on D8 of thanks to these last 2 days, so not all lost.

Alas, onto the next chase where hopefully there will be an Easterly element. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Who is looking forward to the next chase?

not been on for a couple of days as my partners condition is not good,...still waiting for the results of her MRI scan,but i am strong,...you have to be...

weather is weather and if something is more importent then you have priorities

hope to be posting more soon

GN you lot,...you are all family in here

[Battleground Snow]

19 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Who is looking forward to the next chase?

not been on for a couple of days as my partners condition is not good,...still waiting for the results of her MRI scan,but i am strong,...you have to be...

weather is weather and if something is more importent then you have priorities

hope to be posting more soon

GN you lot,...you are all family in here

@Scott Ingham will enjoy that in the morning, slices the tpv like a hot knife thru butter.

Perhaps a week too early, but wouldn't be surprised to see a version of this synoptic setup show up more and more over the coming runs.

[Nick2373]

18z still shows what we are all expecting in terms of the transition from cold to  avenge for this time of the year, but it also shows a dryer period from the 24th with what looks like to be periods of cooler sectors popping in and out at times. But them its all eyes to the end of the month with more member's dropping down past the the 30 year mean to something colder is the chase back on?

Edited January 17, 2024 by Nick2373

[Nick2373]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Pointless even thinking about a chase that far out you have to wait until next month now.

 

??? Nothing not pointless about it, there is quite a lot of evidence not just from the GEFS but other models of something colder towards the end of the month. when i review and look at the GEFS I look for trending in patterns yes granted you may not end up with what its showing but what i find is you end up with pretty much not far off in temp or condition wise with the GEFS.  It picked up on the last cold spell and was showing a trend quite a few days out in the realms of FI. I've stuck to this method for years learning looking and analysing the GEFS and its patterns I'm confidant there's a chase on and will stick to my guns on this of a shift to something colder. 

[Ali1977]

More interesting charts in FI this morning 

[northwestsnow]

Well I've done that much chasing it's definitely time to take a step back for now ..

As Arnie once said ,I'll be back !!

EC day 9 says it might be a while !

[mountain shadow]

Ah well. Back to the drawing board.

I think a month end change is less probable now.

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well I've done that much chasing it's definitely time to take a step back for now ..

As Arnie once said ,I'll be back !!

EC day 9 says it might be a while !

I think it’s worth keeping a watch on gfs and later frames of ecm to see if there is some consistency in direction of output.  I see some are saying the end of the month is unlikely to change to cold I assume on the back of this mornings op runs? 
 

It’s going to be awhile because next week general theme is agreed on. 

[northwestsnow]

FWIW I'd stab at a Sceuro High for the beginning of Feb which might produce a chilly feel ..

We defo don't want to see the TPV getting comfortable over Greenland..

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

FWIW I'd stab at a Sceuro High for the beginning of Feb which might produce a chilly feel ..

We defo don't want to see the TPV getting comfortable over Greenland..

I think (and hope) you’re right.  I just don’t want the rain and gales to hang around for too long.  Let’s at least get some dry usable weather.

[northwestsnow]

I'll drop by to read how things are Shaping up in the background ..

Fingers crossed we get an Easterly,preferably before mid Feb as my interest wanes thereafter although I understand that isn't the case for everybody.

I semi retire in July so will only be working 3 months a year  thereonin ,I'm really hoping we get a nice summer and Dickens December surely thats not too much to ask !!

[blizzard81]

The ecm op is disappointing this morning, flat in the later timeframe with no sign of the magnitude of amplification we will need to bring the cold back. Not overly concerned as quite frankly, the op has been a Grinch all winter in the 8 to 10 day slot when the gfs sniffs something close to interesting. 

[Troubleatmill]

55 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

FWIW I'd stab at a Sceuro High for the beginning of Feb which might produce a chilly feel ..

We defo don't want to see the TPV getting comfortable over Greenland..

The ECM agreeing with you mate, although maybe sooner than Feb, with the majority going for a sceuro in the 192-240 range, with the deterministic in cluster 3 (only 8 members towing that path)

Edited January 17, 2024 by Troubleatmill

[Kasim Awan]

What I think we’re seeing here is support for a large Bartlett / Iberian high and the models combining this with the amplification signal in around 10-14 days. This combination can lead to exceptionally mild but drier conditions such as February 2019. I don’t see any signal for convincing enough amplification that will overcome the strong zonal flow so for me this is most likely into early February. Saying that El Niño winters often improve towards the end of the winter so later in February / March does hold some potential but we need to reduce zonal winds significantly to overcome the Bartlett signal. 

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

FWIW I'd stab at a Sceuro High for the beginning of Feb which might produce a chilly feel ..

We defo don't want to see the TPV getting comfortable over Greenland..

Fastest break in history, 10 minutes was it? I'm still in the shuffling High camp & yeah it may not be where WE need it at present, as over the Pacific but if there's amplification about, it's only a matter of time