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Posted
  • Location: Rheanbreck, Lairg, Sutherland 161m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,high winds, thunderstorms, extreme weather
  • Location: Rheanbreck, Lairg, Sutherland 161m
Posted

 Hairy Celt Well Trump is certainly box office and right or wrong least he has his own thoughts and convictions (ha good pun) unlike our spineless grey nonentities.  Time will tell how it goes, I looked more into what he was saying about Panama Canal it appears most of it doesn’t ring true. 
 

Back to weather looks stormy to say the least.

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow
  • Location: Dundee
Posted

Well this is weird. On my way to work, temp saying 2 degrees on my phone but it's definitely colder than that. Grass frost and crunchy underfoot already.

@Norrance you've got a weather station what's the temp sitting at for you?

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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
Posted

 snowlessayr that latest UKV chart is ridiculous. To even see 94mph being projected in a part of the central belt is unreal. 

The latest GFS keeps a swathe of strong  winds through the central belt aswell so starting to home in now on a noteworthy event it would seem for the central belt, barring any unexpected adjustments in the track. 

100% a red warning inbound if these projections continue, no doubt about it. 

I can't imagine a red being issued until Thursday afternoon but likely an Amber by tomorrow evening/Thursday morning.

When looking at the 15z and 18z on the latest UKV, without sounding like a broken record but you can't expect anything other than a fairly widespread Amber warning: 

Screenshot_20250121_225721_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.6775079934924ded936e55c845d52343.jpg

Screenshot_20250121_225747_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.6211838c378aab7847f6c256e62dcc0f.jpg

I really do think the gusts through the central belt will surpass what Isha produced a year ago. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
Posted (edited)

 Dignity


Sorry didn't see post until now. Currently -0.8C and lowest around an hour ago at -1.3C. It has been under zero since just after 8pm.

Edited by Norrance
  • Like 3
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Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
Posted

 Hairy Celt the guys a nutbar and very dangerous for the rest of the world. Hoping the more level headed republicans can keep him in check if their are any left.🙄

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Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr
Posted (edited)

With the GFS finally tracking back north, we are kinda there with cross model consensus. As we know though, that can mean very little so changes will probably still happen from now but I think they will be minor. 

The big question is are the models over estimating the winds? Let's hope so!

The question is rather a when not an if a red warning will be issued if this ends up like what is being modelled tonight. Especially as the updated wind warning from today already has us at the highest impact level. As soon as confidence increases which it has its going to go up. I strongly think at 10am there will be an amber and Thursday it will undoubtedly go red if this stays as is. The timing for this storm for 9am to 3pm means that is prime time for the most damaging impact for work, schools etc. so met office will have to be on the ball here and have this red out there before Thursday afternoon/evening. 

 

Screenshot_20250121-234701.png

The level of gusts that are being forecast are off the scale for the central belt, Ayrshire coast and western isles. Could this be stronger than hurricane b*****? 

The next thing we need to look at is sting jet potential, if this happens then we are a spot of bother. I'm certainly not an an expert on how sting jets develop, work or can be forecast. So I've no idea what to be looking for. 

Edited by snowlessayr
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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
Posted

I remember Edinburgh getting hit pretty badly from what I believe was a sting jet in January 2012. Blackford Hill in the city (164m) recorded gusts up to 102mph. Absolutely insane for a city center location. I remember there being loads of damage locally. Wouldn't want that again but at the minute Friday looks a little worrying 🫣 

The Sting Jet that Roared A Remarkable Windstorm Crosses Scotland

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
Posted

Down to -3c here last night with a heavy frost this morning. Much colder than forecast. Met Office app had an overnight low of +3c here

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Posted
  • Location: Darvel, East Ayrshire. 140m asl
  • Location: Darvel, East Ayrshire. 140m asl
Posted

-2.7 was our overnight low. Didn't expect that.

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Posted
  • Location: Rheanbreck, Lairg, Sutherland 161m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,high winds, thunderstorms, extreme weather
  • Location: Rheanbreck, Lairg, Sutherland 161m
Posted

Dull foggy start dead calm and damp. Bit annoying as new field cam looking sw is up and running but not the greatest of first photos! 1c at the moment.

UBox_IMG_20250122_09022929_3_162_.thumb.jpg.9db34b8c743f6f46d127f5510845b8b9.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted

Frosty here too, -1C. Again, not forecast well.

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
Posted (edited)

Maybe reading it wrong but lastest UKV seems to take the very strongest winds south a bit. Still looks bad across the Central Belt although just not as bad. Parts of the West and SW still seeing some really extreme stuff.

Also, although it's quite rightly not the focus, snow could be an issue for many higher areas too.

Edited by 101_North
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Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
Posted

-2c at home this morning, 0c at work in St Andrews.

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Posted
  • Location: Irvine 10ASL
  • Location: Irvine 10ASL
Posted

 101_North  An amber warning will surely be applied for wind central belt to northern england....n blizzards to very high ground. Much colder today than expected....n forecasts for 10c on friday have been quite downgraded.

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Posted
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Blue skies, thunderstorms, hooleys, snow
  • Location: Haddington, East Lothian
Posted (edited)

 101_North both ICON and UKV have been chopping and changing for the last 36 hours or so. Some runs have brought the strongest winds through the central belt, whereas others like this one have gone south over northern England. The system is still in its development phase off the eastern seaboard, future runs will likely alter slightly. Cant really see it firming up until tomorrow when it should be halfway across the Atlantic. K4 buoy will be a good indicator of atmospheric pressure on Friday morning. 
 

imo blanket amber for central and S Scotland with perhaps a red when confidence increases  

Edited by Polar Stratospheric
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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
Posted

Warnings being updated now. Yellow snow warning issued for Friday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
Posted

As expected it's gone Amber for Northern England and the Central Belt 

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
Posted

Amber now. Only one notch up on the matrix so maybe not red tomorrow... 

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Posted
  • Location: South Falkirk 111m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny in summer, cold in winter.
  • Location: South Falkirk 111m asl
Posted

 Hairy Celt I'm not allowed to watch the news as there's a risk if break my TV by throwing things at it. Can't believe he got in.

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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
Posted (edited)

 Ross B given that the impacts are at the highest end of the scale, so long as the projected winds continue as forcast, i think it'll just be a matter of when a red gets issued rather than 'if'.

Obviously the issue is the liklihood factor rather than the impact factor. Once the liklihood is nailed for where the strongest winds will impact, that should be when a red is issued. There's no doubt about it that winds of and possibly in excess of 80-90mph through a populated area in the middle of the afternoon of a working day and school day, is worthy of a red. 

Based on this morning's charts, the most likely area for a red would be the exteme north of England and possibly the south-western tip of Scotland. The volatility and changes in the track I imagine are what's causing the headache in terms ot the liklihood factor. 

The catch 22 issue though is that if a red is going to be issued, then it really would have to be issued latest tomorrow evening in order for business and schools to take the right action to prevent any unnecessary travel. It would be pointless to issue it on Friday morning when people have already traveled to work and kids are already at school etc. 

The only other factor to consider is if the area of strongest winds shifts to a far less populated area then how would that be viewed in terms of impacts when compared to a densely populated area, would they then deem it a high end amber? 🤷‍♂️ 

I am still confident on a red somewhere though. 👀😅😅

Edited by Ruzzi
  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: South Falkirk 111m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny in summer, cold in winter.
  • Location: South Falkirk 111m asl
Posted

Very frosty this morning, car took a good scraping. Have the day off on Friday, but our hillwalk is cancelled 🤣

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted
17 hours ago, Northernlights said:

AS part of the new conditions for farm support carbon audits are being introduced.What is the point if Trump is trashing climate goals.

Just because one country chooses to screw the planet, doesn't mean we all have to. In my wildest and most optimistic moments I hope that the Trump administration makes such a godawful incompetent hash of running the USA that the Democratic candidate gets in next time. 

Are the conditions for farms especially onerous?

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Posted
  • Location: Lockerbie
  • Location: Lockerbie
Posted

Had to drive out to Eskdalemuir this morning.   Only 12 miles but what temp differences:  +1 here, +3 Boreland, 0 Esk village, -3 Esk observatory.   And on my way home it was +4 in Boreland and still +1 here.   Absolutely pathetic that these variations weren't forecast on my app.  met off ice needs sack.

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
Posted

There's the off chance the remains of one or two drifts around here might survive to see new snaw on auld Friday morning. Jeezo for the central belt winds!

Weather looking more traditional; cold zonal storms were what used to fill up the northern corries for skiing. Wasn't northerlies scouring the snow out of them onto the plateaus, nor NE/E showers struggling to reach the central / western highlands. 

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
Posted

 Ruzzi I agree that it's likely based on the overnight runs at least somewhere. I just don't think it's a certainty yet, 48 hours is still a lot of time and we've seen changes within that time period before on big events. All I'm suggesting is, if it was almost certain, then the likelihood scale for me would be sitting in the box one below the red, whereas it's 2 below now. 

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