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Posted
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
  • Weather Preferences: Whatever Mother Nature cares to throw my way
  • Location: Ynys Mon - Cymru (Isle of Anglesey - Wales)
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

The first severe gales of the winter are coming later tomorrow this looks widespread..
..image.thumb.png.7235bc29dbc9cf6402ac4c54dcf7e619.png

noooo ...  Isha is the 4th named Storm Dec-23 to present 

Edit:  5th named Storm

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index

Edited by StingJet
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Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
Posted
5 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

The first severe gales of the winter are coming later tomorrow this looks widespread..
..image.thumb.png.7235bc29dbc9cf6402ac4c54dcf7e619.png

Really must have missed the Jan 2nd storm let alone the rest.

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
11 minutes ago, moochops said:

I agree, very confusing.  I think an overview map is useful but you should be able to click on a county (or at least region) and get detailed information for that area.  

Exactly!?

  • Like 3
Posted
22 minutes ago, kate1 said:

The MetOffice warning maps are ridiculously confusing IMO, especially when there are several out at the same time covering different types of weather. Surely they could come up with something better given their importance? 

Yes it’s shocking. It used to be that if you clicked on a certain warning it would only  highlight that on the map, now there is nothing distinguishable between any of the warnings a complete and cluster bleep. I never understand changes they make to make things worse. Who decides to come up with that? Crazy

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Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London
Posted
Just now, Penguin16 said:

Yes it’s shocking. It used to be that if you clicked on a certain warning it would only  highlight that on the map, now there is nothing distinguishable between any of the warnings a complete and cluster bleep. I never understand changes they make to make things worse. Who decides to come up with that? Crazy

I don't see the difficulty just go to the localised computer forecasts you will see the warnings in place for your location.

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Posted
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted
29 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Agreed.  Inland 70mph+ is pretty rare the southern half of the UK.

Even storm Eunice which was billed as the strongest storm for 10 years only hit 69mph in London. 
 

There's always alot of old bunkem spoken when it comes to these storms.

Worst in however many years sort of nonsense.

The talk of 70mph inland Southern England gusts ( if by inland we mean a good 30 miles from a coast,I can't see it)

The notable thing about this storm is the strong wind field covering just about the whole country.

Quite rare to see, gust  wise nothing  to suggest we are in trouble.

Values most would expect during the winter at some point ( perhaps excepting that central belt of Scotland ) if the 85mph gusts come to fruition  it might be a once in three year?

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted
27 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Guess I'm in for another power cut then sigh!

To me if reads yellow rain and orange wind. But I guess not! abcde!

Better than yellow snow....

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
Posted
23 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Just rain on the meto

Screenshot_20240120-170422.png

Huh but yellow is rain and orange is wind. There is no orange over me.

If you put in the 5 day forecast for your area it shows you there’s a warning for each day and then click on it tells you it’s a wind warning. The amber for SE is a bit east of you.

Your location:

IMG_9290.thumb.jpeg.dea5e10b178bbb9fbb228e975df922a1.jpeg

My location:
IMG_9292.thumb.jpeg.3701fec05684de4c5d72f3632e6b18d2.jpeg


Amber warning area:

IMG_9291.thumb.jpeg.0c48971d8aa02be16ae6b931ccc9243c.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

The same ARPEGE that predicted this?

Screenshot_20240101-221641.png.71070811e548d987206f252104cb1568.thumb.png.c04d43fcb709ba88f88a04d282c80ffb.png

Reality:

Screenshot2024-01-20164334.thumb.png.4908205e80cf66cb3e68af84c717c308.png

Wow I didn’t realise we reached 80mph in Exeter on the 2nd of January this year, I wasn’t working, I think it was pretty windy but I don’t recall thinking it was that strong…maybe it was stronger near the airport where I gather this reading was taken, maybe a freak gust of wind or weak tornado? That’s pretty noteworthy as we got I think 87mph during the burns day storm in 1990 and possibly similar gusts in the windstorms of in the winter of 2013/14 but I knew they were bad as I experienced it and thought wow, I didn’t feel that on the 2nd of January 

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Better than yellow snow....

I'ld play in yellow snow ... I'm that desperate ...

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Posted
1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'ld play in yellow snow ... I'm that desperate ...

ewww! 😄

 

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted
43 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Not much can be done about Monday. Most of us are expected in school and work.

Luckily my next shift isn’t until Wednesday 😜

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, moochops said:

I agree, very confusing.  I think an overview map is useful but you should be able to click on a county (or at least region) and get detailed information for that area.  

I agree, predicted max winds for Exeter from different sites range from 74mph down to 52mph…it’s so confusing, I’d rather go to an official website and get accurate information on what to expect and please don’t say met office, they are based in Exeter and often get temps and max winds wrong, last summer I used to add on at least 2/3c to what ever they were predicting and I was correct more than they were ha ha  lol 😂 

Edited by TwisterGirl81
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Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr
Posted
13 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

There's always alot of old bunkem spoken when it comes to these storms.

Worst in however many years sort of nonsense.

The talk of 70mph inland Southern England gusts ( if by inland we mean a good 30 miles from a coast,I can't see it)

The notable thing about this storm is the strong wind field covering just about the whole country.

Quite rare to see, gust  wise nothing  to suggest we are in trouble.

Values most would expect during the winter at some point ( perhaps excepting that central belt of Scotland ) if the 85mph gusts come to fruition  it might be a once in three year?

The central belt do not get 85mph gusts every 3 years. Nowhere near it 😂

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted
1 hour ago, wimblettben said:

Well for reference those wind gusts are usually the max you get on the coasts and hills in most deep lows in the winter period when inland areas get anywhere from 30-50mph gusts so if those gusts come off it will be quite an experience for us inlanders.

I am inland and near the Teifi valley not so far from you, my anemometer has not worked for a couple of years now and is in the roof, highest gusts most years around 60mph, nothing above 65mph, therefore I would rate 70mph as exceptional for here.

Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, MAF said:

^ four on four off?

🙂 No a mixture and no set pattern but I only do 3 x 12.5 hour day or night shifts a week as a health care assistant in the nhs, couldn’t do 4 like some do…(thankfully more day shifts than nights though) I usually do 2 shifts together than a couple days off then a third shift  then a day or two off again but it can vary sometimes . I booked my third shift off this week so it gives me a longer break until my next shifts, need it though, it’s a heavy ward, rewarding but very busy, you sleep well after a day shift that’s for sure. I’m glad I’m off so I can stay up and ride our the storm in the cosy comfort of my home with the wind howling outside 🥰

Edited by TwisterGirl81
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Nov - Feb. Thunderstorms, 20-29°C and sun any time!
  • Location: Coventry, 95m asl
Posted
1 hour ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Looks like a storm that we get maybe once or twice a year. Nasty yes, overly concerning probably not. Western Scotland is used a proper battering so 90mph there is the equivalent of 70-75mph in the south imo. 

Unlike Eunice, Ciaran (for channel islands), Burns day or Oratia in October 2000, this one doesn't look to have the more populated areas of the south most at risk. North / western mountainous regions which are much less populated look to take the brunt, which should make it less impactful further south compared to if the centre tracked through northern england like Eunice or Burns day. Isha's track is set to go through just north of Scotland. However still some quite strong winds for all of England even for inland I am expecting, but thankfully at night while most should be asleep. The north could still see quite a lot of disruption.

 

I'm looking through this which is quite useful, the worst storms last few decades. Sunday night looks to be most similar to Boxing day 1998 and mid January 2005 systems, with Scotland and north west England seeing the strongest winds.

Below comparing the latest output to those 2 storms in 98 and 05:

GFSOPEU12_36_1.thumb.png.8591bc25c485f908a62240dddb4f45cb.png

CFSR_1_1998122618_1.thumb.png.078f63914841a99ab12a6774abbd532b.pngCFSR_1_2005011118_1.thumb.png.bca29bababaf03167aa132120d841898.png

 

A quote from the 1998 storm: "The Met Office estimated that a storm on the magnitude of the one in December 1998 occurs around once every four years somewhere in Britain, and once every twenty at any given point, with the wind coming in a belt around 200 kilometres (120 mi) wide".

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted
21 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'ld play in yellow snow ... I'm that desperate ...

😂 you can keep any snow, I’m so ready for it to warm up…I tried to dig at my allotment today on one side that’s more shaded and I thought it was comcrete but it’s clay soil that was frozen solid and this was daytime.

im pretty sure my energy usage for this month is going to be comfortably over £200 as well. Hoping we have no more Baltic conditions now. I’d rather it be mild or even an early start to spring.  I know some people on here would probably want to slap me silly for saying such a thing but I’m so over the cold now…I want to wear my flip flops and see flowers in the garden  🙊 

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Posted
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted
16 minutes ago, snowlessayr said:

The central belt do not get 85mph gusts every 3 years. Nowhere near it 😂

OK, hence the question mark.

Infact still a question hanging over it happening on this occasion looking at the mixed bag so far on the 12z

Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm sunny days , gales in Autumn , frost in Winter .
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
Posted
1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Not much can be done about Monday. Most of us are expected in school and work.

No, I guess not,  I suppose I should have said I hope no one gets seriously hurt in the weather conditions.  :-). 

My works car park is surrounded by tall trees . Could be interesting . 

Minehead which is 30mins drive from me has the Amber warning , that could see sand or the sea over the wall. 

Posted
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted

Looking at the warnings the Met Office have issued ( potential for 80mph on Western coasts and SE coasts of England) to call this storm mostly impactful for Scotland is not how Exeter are seeing it right now.

The 85mph possibility for parts of Scotland is only 5mph higher than England.

This of course could change....

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Posted
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted
12 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Unlike Eunice, Ciaran (for channel islands), Burns day or Oratia in October 2000, this one doesn't look to have the more populated areas of the south most at risk. North / western mountainous regions which are much less populated look to take the brunt, which should make it less impactful further south compared to if the centre tracked through northern england like Eunice or Burns day. Isha's track is set to go through just north of Scotland. However still some quite strong winds for all of England even for inland I am expecting, but thankfully at night while most should be asleep. The north could still see quite a lot of disruption.

 

I'm looking through this which is quite useful, the worst storms last few decades. Sunday night looks to be most similar to Boxing day 1998 and mid January 2005 systems, with Scotland and north west England seeing the strongest winds.

Below comparing the latest output to those 2 storms in 98 and 05:

GFSOPEU12_36_1.thumb.png.8591bc25c485f908a62240dddb4f45cb.png

CFSR_1_1998122618_1.thumb.png.078f63914841a99ab12a6774abbd532b.pngCFSR_1_2005011118_1.thumb.png.bca29bababaf03167aa132120d841898.png

 

A quote from the 1998 storm: "The Met Office estimated that a storm on the magnitude of the one in December 1998 occurs around once every four years somewhere in Britain, and once every twenty at any given point, with the wind coming in a belt around 200 kilometres (120 mi) wide".

The examples you give here show a much lesser windfield over England, hardly a Gale..

Although positionly further South, the 1990 burns day storm looked similar with impacts countrywide.

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

I don't see the difficulty just go to the localised computer forecasts you will see the warnings in place for your location.

Yes but if you want to read the further details which go beyond what colour it’s a cluster beep when multiple warnings are issued

Edited by Penguin16
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Posted
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
Posted

I would suggest that the point of ‘impact’ is probably what concerns most people, rather than the measurable element of the weather itself.  This makes the warning system a little complex.  For me then there are two salient points.   Firstly, the degree of deviation from what is normal for your particular area.  So here in East Hertfordshire houses, garden fences and other built environment elements are less stable than a stone roofed and walled farmhouse in upland places.  Hence, less windspeed here has more impact (as well as a greater population to be impacted than, say, Dartmoor).   Secondly is the range of possible maximum gust speeds currently being forecast.   The MO app for my location is the lowest at present stating 53 mph.  Arpege suggests around 70 mph.  The difference between the two matters because the energy in the 70 mph gust is more than twice (perhaps nearly three times) that of the 53 mph gust and the effect  of this 17 mph difference would then be really substantial.   I don’t recall seeing a 70 mph gust anywhere near here for the past 10 years or more - though if anyone has access to historical data it would be interesting to know. 

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