Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

[Rain All Night]

15 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

A summary of this afternoon's model runs.

Deterministic runs up to day 7 (Wed 24th)

Two upcoming lows to endure, the first one Sunday PM into Monday AM (this one perhaps with a sting in its tail), the second one Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM. All models show that second system being followed up with a minor ridge, which looks chunkiest on the ECM.

Ensemble means at days 10 & 13 (Sat 27th & Tue 30th)

Nothing much showing, aside from the likelihood that the further southeast you are, the drier you may be in the closing days of January.

A summary of this morning's model runs.

Deterministic runs up to day 7 (Thu 25th)

The Monday (formerly Sunday) system now has less of a "dartboard" shape on these three models, and ECM has similarly re-imagined the Tuesday-into-Wednesday system. ECM still offers the most generous ridging after the second system has passed.

Ensemble means at days 10 & 13 (Sun 28th & Wed 31st)

These are a little better than last night's (see my quoted post for those). It looks like much of England should be dry next weekend, at least.

Edited January 18, 2024 by RainAllNight

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You’d expect any response likely within the next two weeks to now be picked up by the models (especially eps ) as the warmings of the past three weeks are pretty much done 

nothing solid showing yet although the scandi ridge solution is the most common departure from the norm that we are seeing play out 

@jules216 - I think you’re in a decent  location for weeks 2 and 3. Either a cold trough or a good chance of a hit from a deep cold pool 

I have conversations with an uncle in Poland who ironically enough has interest in climate ..

His opinion for Poland  is a noticeable shift with Winter coming later so to speak - he does reside near to the SW German border and the difference West to East in Poland is quite considerable ..( Those nearer Eastern frontier -Ukraine and Belarus would see generally colder conditions and its quite a big country) . I'm teaching you to suck eggs I'm sure  but when winter is coming later in central Europe it wont be good news for Western Europe ....

Edited January 18, 2024 by northwestsnow

[Battleground Snow]

Control is indeed a beauty.

Have to admit I was a bit downbeat after the 18z gefs yesterday, as the signal for scandi seemed to vanish, but at least it's been picked up again this morning 

Not a bad mean towards the end.

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You’d expect any response likely within the next two weeks to now be picked up by the models (especially eps ) as the warmings of the past three weeks are pretty much done 

nothing solid showing yet although the scandi ridge solution is the most common departure from the norm that we are seeing play out 

@jules216 - I think you’re in a decent  location for weeks 2 and 3. Either a cold trough or a good chance of a hit from a deep cold pool 

Thanks for replying because i did quote you last night so thanks for getting back.

Remember 2013 when we had a quick trop response think around 6th january, you were all over it at the time.

Then we had that mad cold march too.

Is it possible of an early response this time because they're quite unpredictable 

 

[Man With Beard]

Re: the weekend's storms - I trust the GFS more than any other model on wind strength, but only within T72.

It's interesting that as the Sunday event moves to within this timeframe, the GFS has watered it down slightly to probably yellow warning territory.

The new Monday event now looks the more serious on the GFS, but that's still T96, where anything still goes on this particular model.

[AO-]

28 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

There are some beauties in the GFS ENS.

About a handful, 20 %, going along with Control. A great EPS for what I'm concerned. But still in FI.

Edited January 18, 2024 by AO-

[Eagle Eye]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

Additional note. Amy Butler suggests the Greenland anticyclone was reinforced by the minor warming. 

 

Don't want to brag but I do ha ha. I noticed that it could well have been and that blaming the minor warming for not affecting the surface was just wrong. The reflection it onset was a large reflection and perhaps either strengthened or caused it when I was looking back at the pattern. Always happy to spot something by myself fully and appear to be right. 

[Met4Cast]

48 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Again im catching up now, so what gets me with the warming that's undergoing this week why are people so quick to write the next wk or two off when a fast response may happen and change the entire game 

This isn’t your typical SSW bringing down a strong vortex with big surface impacts. We already have a weak vortex & have done for most of winter, this SSW as a result is a bit like adding a glass of water to an ocean and expecting a big change. 

Despite the warming on the 16th being technically a major SSW, we’ve already seen a typical SSW response (current cold) from the previous minor event. 

In fact, there have now been 3 warming events this season! 

Strong vortex’s fall hard.. a weak vortex being punched doesn’t. A quick return to average strength in the next couple of weeks is now very likely, we’ve lost the tropospheric “punching”. 

[Met4Cast]

10 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Don't want to brag but I do ha ha. I noticed that it could well have been and that blaming the minor warming for not affecting the surface was just wrong. The reflection it onset was a large reflection and perhaps either strengthened or caused it when I was looking back at the pattern. Always happy to spot something by myself fully and appear to be right. 

I’m not sure anyone said the minor warming had no impact? Quite clearly it helped support the Greenland high. Likewise, it’s also now pulling the Canadian vortex east, hence the mild & stormy weather next week. 

You can see this on the strat plots. 

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I’m not sure anyone said the minor warming had no impact? Quite clearly it helped support the Greenland high. Likewise, it’s also now pulling the Canadian vortex east, hence the mild & stormy weather next week. 

You can see this on the strat plots. 

I've seen a fair few people a few weeks ago saying if the major warming had happened we'd have had a Greenland high when it was slowly dissapearing off the models for a bit. When in reality the minor warming was favouring that, it's just that by pulling the Canadian vortex east it did also destroy its own part creation. A major warming would've been more favourable of course. 

[Nick2373]

06z shows starting to show a transition  a quick one possibly to a scandi high  28-02Feb could it be a quick one? it as happened before you never know. 

[Eagle Eye]

20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

This isn’t your typical SSW bringing down a strong vortex with big surface impacts. We already have a weak vortex & have done for most of winter, this SSW as a result is a bit like adding a glass of water to an ocean and expecting a big change. 

Despite the warming on the 16th being technically a major SSW, we’ve already seen a typical SSW response (current cold) from the previous minor event. 

In fact, there have now been 3 warming events this season! 

Strong vortex’s fall hard.. a weak vortex being punched doesn’t. A quick return to average strength in the next couple of weeks is now very likely, we’ve lost the tropospheric “punching”. 

Agreed, in fact the lack of a significant EHF response that occurs long after a proper SSWE shows that. Normally you have - VE EHF lasting 40 days post ssw, peaking at day 10-15. This - VE EHF response is sort of a sharp yet weak looking return to the Strat state peaking around what, day 5-7 ish? Before surface forcing can take over again. 

 

 

Edited January 18, 2024 by Eagle Eye

[Troubleatmill]

6 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Agreed, in fact the lack of a significant EHF response that occurs long after a proper SSWE shows that. Normally you have - VE EHF lasting 40 days post ssw, peaking at day 10-15. This - VE EHF response is sort of a sharp yet weak looking return to the Strat state peaking around what, day 5-7 ish? Before surface forcing can take over again. 

Just as I was thinking I knew what the clever folk were saying

Edited January 18, 2024 by Troubleatmill

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Troubleatmill said:

Just as I was thinking I knew what the clever folk were saying

The trop and the strat have had a wee fender bender but despite a little shock there’s no lasting damage  

Edited January 18, 2024 by Met4Cast

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

There are some beauties in the GFS ENS.

Many of those showing how an Iberian HP can be instrumental 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

33 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

This isn’t your typical SSW bringing down a strong vortex with big surface impacts. We already have a weak vortex & have done for most of winter, this SSW as a result is a bit like adding a glass of water to an ocean and expecting a big change. 

Despite the warming on the 16th being technically a major SSW, we’ve already seen a typical SSW response (current cold) from the previous minor event. 

In fact, there have now been 3 warming events this season! 

Strong vortex’s fall hard.. a weak vortex being punched doesn’t. A quick return to average strength in the next couple of weeks is now very likely, we’ve lost the tropospheric “punching”. 

Not convinced this is nailed tbh.

Alot of conflicting posts regarding whats really leading the pattern.

This cold spell has been trop led, which has aided the Canadian warming no?

 

[bluearmy]

46 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Thanks for replying because i did quote you last night so thanks for getting back.

Remember 2013 when we had a quick trop response think around 6th january, you were all over it at the time.

Then we had that mad cold march too.

Is it possible of an early response this time because they're quite unpredictable 

 

Met4 cast has replied along the lines that I would 

2013 - memories! Was that the Ukmo day 5 wtf moment? 
looking back we had an amplified w euro/sceuro ridge in place when the ssw occurred. We then saw a second push north of Atlantic heights which forced a svaalbard upper ridge and the Atlantic then undercut that. So the zonal flow dropped v quickly on the models. I assume that was the quick response. 

this just seems like the actual ssw is the crescendo of two weeks of reversals and warmings but it’s weak - so it likely doesn’t have an impact.  Whether we see downwelling waves in feb from the first half jan warmings is probably something that glosea 6 could be seeing.  Not something we get to see other than it’s 1st of the month run at 10hpa.   Because this seasons strat is so unusual I wouldn’t make a stab at what mig happen in feb other than I just feel we will be generally frustrated by what transpires. 

 

[Ladyofthestorm]

Last night the NOAA ensemble's were bullish about a longer term positive NAO bringing wet Windy, mild and wild weather to the UK. 

I've noticed that sound if the ensemble runs are gunning to go negative. 

Watch that for becoming a trend   

It's not often you see such a strong HP system just collapse the way it is doing. 

 

Winters not over. 

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

What an absolutely fabulous read this morning...

I'm not posting much, I'd only moan and with age I've realised thats  just an annoyance to others when all said and done !!

A truly old school freezing week up here ,temps haven't really got much above freezing since Sunday night and still snow cover  ,one last cold shot in Feb would be grand ...

 

Straight up February is our prime outlet things slowly getting going.. @ blocking@ direct incursion..

[Met4Cast]

13 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Not convinced this is nailed tbh.

Alot of conflicting posts regarding whats really leading the pattern.

This cold spell has been trop led, which has aided the Canadian warming no?

 

Bit of a chicken and egg situation really. 

Trop led patterns triggered the strat warming but then the warming weakened the SPV allowing trop led patterns to amplify a high into Greenland, the weak lower strat perhaps aiding in this.

In essence - Without a strong SPV overriding tropospheric drivers, those drivers were able to do their thing to produce the blocking, despite trop led drivers being the reason for the weak vortex in the first place.. 

Wibbly wobbly..

[Ladyofthestorm]

14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Bit of a chicken and egg situation really. 

Trop led patterns triggered the strat warming but then the warming weakened the SPV allowing trop led patterns to amplify a high into Greenland, the weak lower strat perhaps aiding in this.

In essence - Without a strong SPV overriding tropospheric drivers, those drivers were able to do their thing to produce the blocking, despite trop led drivers being the reason for the weak vortex in the first place.. 

Wibbly wobbly..

Precarious if you ask me. I'm waiting for a NLy reload! 

[tight isobar]

The mean standing bk but the clustering is getting bound.. we need to look bk end jan/- early feb- for alignment in dynamics… get ya rollercoater tickets here

[blizzard81]

My thoughts haven't changed. Things could develop quite rapidly at around day 7. The models won't be anywhere near getting a grip on that amplification yet at that timeframe. 

[Mcconnor8]

Storm for Sunday night looks even worse on the 12z! Hope it doesn't verify like this as would be a bad one.

[Zero Visibility]

11 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Storm for Sunday night looks even worse on the 12z! Hope it doesn't verify like this as would be a bad one.

Yes most models now all showing this outcome, even EC 6z looked like it had moved toward the others.