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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung


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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Back to basics -NAO in early summer rarely bodes well. 

But that's it though, it's only early summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire

 Bats32 not sure if I trust it to be fair unless it gets some movement by the other models.    Just had a gander at the GEM at the same time as that and it's nowhere near as good as the GFS, although there is still strong prospects of dry weather particularly in the south, like so below.   

image.thumb.png.62b32363e7bd41106d20174a32713e54.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire

Quite unsettled from the UKMO tonight although better in the south.   

image.thumb.png.036373fce642704be3f732c68e9dcd7f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Much of the UK is in cooler air than Svalbard (78 degrees north) on Thursday on the GFS 12Z run- quite remarkable. That said, after Thursday it's not a bad run with temperatures gradually recovering and it's pretty dry for most at least.

GFSOPEU12_144_2.png

Edited by Scorcher
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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire

 Scorcher this seems to be the average CFS chart for june currently, a mid Atlantic ridge seems to be the main player which won't be a bad thing, but we will have average temps.  Drier than average though.   

image.thumb.png.9c27a57ba2e051de364b17e4a438444a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: BWh
  • Location: Cheshire

 Bats32 I would suggest that the incoming cooler spell wouldn't persist for very long and would more than likely give way to a higher pressure and more southerly influence by mid month. I don't think there's any reliable signs of it happening thus far, but there are hints as you can see. I suspect we'll see such scenarios gain more support through this week and next.

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Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Awful ECM temperature-wise. We will have to hope the GFS is on the money or we will be looking at a very chilly first 10 days or so of June.

Not sure I've seen sub-zero 850 hPa temps for such a prolonged period in June as what the ECM is showing this evening. Even the woeful June 2012 didn't have those sorts of uppers across the UK.

Edited by Scorcher
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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

 Sherry the mods may think we are not treating the thread with respect so it would be nice if we could be relevant.   

Anyway back to the models and to be fair the ECMWF 12Z ensemble mean could be worse, not brilliant though

image.thumb.png.a325523b80ddda63fbbe3e180faccdd8.png

The 850 hpa mean chart

image.thumb.png.d21a1d57c39ef64b3415305d8d90656b.png

i dont know what the GFS 18Z is bringing, but I will pay more attention to tge 0Z as it has more data on it.    

Edited by Addicks Fan 1981
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Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Just take whatever is offered.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard, Central Bedfordshire

 Scorcher think we need to go back to the post made by @MATTWOLVES 3 to not to flip out when we don't see desirable op runs.   

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Locking this thread now. New thread here:

 

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