Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[blizzard81]

@bluearmy I could agree more. A little bizarre in here this evening. 

@RainAllNight this is the problem though. Mine isn't a smartphone. We are all supposed to be the same though aren't we? Lol

Edited January 23, 2024 by blizzard81

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Plenty of despondency this evening 

I actually think this ties in with the best set of eps in the 12/15 day period that we’ve seen for some time 

There are also some ops and control runs which look to have a very mashed tpv in fi 

the darkest of the night is just before the dawn …….  I think 

'Test' I think I've now cracked it (how to incorporate what you are replying to) on my 8 year old android lol. Much more faffy though. I prefer simple and easy. 

[Rain All Night]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

@RainAllNight this is the problem though. Mine isn't a smartphone.

Ah... not sure what you are supposed to do then...

[feb1991blizzard]

@bluearmy

Agree - although i think it'll keep getting pushed back (lagged MJO 7 composite ties in with 30 dayer) and the despondency will get worse before it gets better and by the time the bonkers FI runs start again the 'its not worth a 3rd week feb spell i want spring' brigade will be in full voice.

[Rain All Night]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Plenty of despondency this evening 

I actually think this ties in with the best set of eps in the 12/15 day period that we’ve seen for some time 

There are also some ops and control runs which look to have a very mashed tpv in fi 

the darkest of the night is just before the dawn …….  I think 

Also, the pattern we look to be getting in the next 10 days or so is better (in terms of immediate misery levels, rather than in terms of "cold prospects") than the one that we had to endure through December.

Edited January 23, 2024 by RainAllNight

[Don]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

'its not worth a 3rd week feb spell i want spring' brigade will be in full voice.

Well that certainly won't be me.  As much as I would prefer a cold spell to occur in the heart of winter, beggars can't be choosers in this country (especially these days!) and if that means having to wait until late February and into March, I will happily take it!

[blizzard81]

@feb1991blizzard the problem with the Exeter 30 dayer, mjo or whatever lol is that they are out of date when the next set of runs come out. I go on the very latest runs (not the pub run though, nor the gfs 06z lol). The 12z and 00z runs are the ones to follow. The latest runs, which happen to be the 12z runs, are an upgrade in many respects. Let's now see if the 00z runs can carry on in the same vain. If so, expect that Exeter update to upgrade very soon. 

[Uncertainty]

@blizzard81 here’s some certainty for you: the 0z runs will be rubbish haha!

I was as sure as I’ve ever been about feb cold given the seasonals. It’s more of a nervous yes now. We’ve had 2 Greenland highs that have faded before we got the really good stuff this winter and a surprising amount of zonal mayhem in between (or not, given the strong Nino, solar and mjo p4…)

I still think the signals (fading iod / late winter Nino, mjo to p7, consistent ec 46) etc are pointed to mid feb cold but - in this game -  one can never be, ahem, certain!

[Kasim Awan]

I don't agree with the posts writing off February. Give it time there is a chance of another cold spell.

[Uncertainty]

@feb1991blizzardno one minded in 2018 did they. Apart from the mild folk that is. They probably minded

[blizzard81]

@Uncertainty ha ha ha nice one mate. I like that. I'm remembering that first sentence though for this coming morning. I'll be the first one to rub it in if you're wrong trust me

[blizzard81]

@Kasim Awan don't think many will argue with you tonight with your view - for once . The question is more 'WHEN' in February. Before mid? Around mid? Or slightly after mid? The 12z ecm suite has opened this one up tonight. Take your bets. 

[feb1991blizzard]

@blizzard81

For me to start getting excited for 5th-7th(ish), its going to take a lot more than one 12z suite, and it certainly would for the Met office (though excited would be the wrong terminology for them!)

[feb1991blizzard]

@Kasim Awan

Yes, no way this is write off territory, there are times in the past when i've said this by this date, 2011 off the top of my head, but no way yet this year, albeit very disappointing.

[blizzard81]

@feb1991blizzard indeed but I think the one thing most will agree on when it comes to meteorology is that it is a constantly evolving phenomenon and things can change quite rapidly. Yes, usually for the worse in these shores but ever so ocassionally for the better - which is incidently when our best cold spells evolve.

[Cleeve Hill]

It’s coming I’ve seen enough over the last couple of days to say the patterns shows signs of change as we get into early Feb. 
History says Valentines days is often one of the coldest times of the year. That feels about right for 2024.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@bluearmy  Nick I thought the ecm ens look better than what I've seen for some time,yet some are not really convinced! For me weve taken a slight step forward today rather than the usual 2 steps back.

I've got to be honest I'm finding this new layout rather strange..all I'm seeing is a load of @ this and that  

Edited January 23, 2024 by MATTWOLVES 3

[blizzard81]

@MATTWOLVES 3 indeed mate . The only step backwards today is the change to how we can reply to posts. 

[Met4Cast]

Given the huge amount of spread at just day 4/5 on the ensembles i’m not sure why we’re placing much hope in the extended which has a huge amount of spread both mild and to a lesser extent, cold. 

The MJO forecast remains rather uncertain, the stratosphere is gaining momentum & will soon be above average (albeit not so much lower down) and momentum budgets aren’t overly favourable either (as described by Tamara a few days ago re: equatorward rather than poleward fluxxing). 

If we’re hanging out hats on a few extended range ensembles, we really are in trouble!

[blizzard81]

@Met4Cast I actually think things are looking much more favourable now than they have for the last 10 days plus. 

[Battleground Snow]

Better from the pub run, need to keep that tpv over scandi and not have any reformation or remnants over Greenland 

[Snowman.]

ECM is better at D10 than the GFS, but it gives it a go.

Trend developing maybe?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@Met4Cast well hang on a sec..you was bigging the situation up for quite some time just the other week.Now your saying we are in trouble! There is a greater degree of colder members today which surely is a good point! And background forcing does not guarantee the goods all the time for everyone...Just look back at the late Nov early Dec cold snap that came on the back of no forcing whatsoever. Also the met mention the possibility of colder conditions...it may have been pushed back but its still there.

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

@Met4Cast What are your current thoughts ref to 2nd half of February?

Not overly optimistic. We might get some amplification but i’m not personally seeing a route to sustained high latitude blocking/prolonged cold. 

@MATTWOLVES 3

“A couple of weeks ago” things looked far more favourable for a strong bout of HLB, things have unfortunately changed since then. 

Forecasts/thoughts evolve based on new evidence. 

Edited January 23, 2024 by Met4Cast

[damianslaw]

A different longer term outlook from the GFS18z run compared to earlier GFS outputs today, aligned with ECM in moving the core of the PV eastwards and allowing a northerly and then a ridge to develop, albeit there is still a lobe of the PV to the north west which results in a toppler scenario..All a long way off, but it does show a plausible change from what we will now experience through remainder of January at least.

Typically the PV does weaken somewhat in Feb rather than ramp up, but not always think 2020... though it then imploded quite quick through March.